On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology

Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook’s notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models).     

Interaction between Hsc70 and DnaJ homologues: relationship between Hsc70 polymerization and ATPase activity.

We previously found that, in the presence of ATP, DnaJ homologues catalytically induce formation of a metastable Hsc70 polymer and, similarly, the DnaJ homologue auxilin catalytically induces formation of a metastable Hsc70-clathrin basket complex. Since this suggests that the induction of metastable complexes, which form in ATP but dissociate in ADP, may be a general property of DnaJ homologues, in the present study we investigated in more detail the ability of DnaJ homologues to induce polymerization of Hsc70. This study shows that DnaJ homologues induce polymerization of Hsc70 at the same rate as they induce an initial burst of Hsc70 ATPase activity, showing that polymerization is a specific effect of DnaJ homologue binding to Hsc70. However, polymerization does not always accompany the initial burst of ATPase activity. The dependence of the rates of ATPase activity and polymerization on DnaJ homologue concentration shows that DnaJ homologues bind very weakly to Hsc70 in the presence of ATP and do not bind at all in ADP. Surprisingly, however, under certain conditions the rate of polymerization appears to be independent of Hsc70 concentration, suggesting that polymerization is a first-order reaction, perhaps occurring when two Hsc70 molecules bind to a single DnaJ molecule and then shift their binding to each other. We propose that both the polymerization of Hsc70 by DnaJ homologues and the presentation of substrate by DnaJ homologues to Hsc70 involve the bringing of substrate into proximity with Hsc70 and then independently inducing rapid ATP hydrolysis to cause formation of a metastable Hsc70-substrate complex.     

RUNAWAY COEVOLUTION: ADAPTATION TO HERITABLE AND NONHERITABLE ENVIRONMENTS

Populations evolve in response to the external environment, whether abiotic (e.g., climate) or biotic (e.g., other conspecifics). We investigated how adaptation to biotic, heritable environments differs from adaptation to abiotic, nonheritable environments. We found that, for the same selection coefficients, the coadaptive process between genes and heritable environments is much faster than genetic adaptation to an abiotic nonheritable environment. The increased rate of adaptation results from the positive association generated by reciprocal selection between the heritable environment and the genes responding to it. These associations result in a runaway process of adaptive coevolution, even when the genes creating the heritable environment and genes responding to the heritable environment are unlinked. Although tightening the degree of linkage accelerates the coadaptive process, the acceleration caused by a comparable amount of inbreeding is greater, because inbreeding has a cumulative effect on reducing functional recombination over generations. Our results suggest that that adaptation to local abiotic environmental variation may result in the rapid diversification of populations and subsequent reproductive isolation not directly but rather via its effects on heritable environments and the genes responding to them.     

Aspartic acid 413 is important for the normal allosteric functioning of ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase.

As part of a structure-function analysis of the higher-plant ADP-glucose pyrophosphorylase (AGP), we used a random mutagenesis approach in combination with a novel bacterial complementation system to isolate over 100 mutants that were defective in glycogen production (T.W. Greene, S.E. Chantler, M.L. Khan, G.F. Barry, J. Preiss, T.W. Okita [1996] Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 93: 1509-1513). One mutant of the large subunit M27 was identified by its capacity to only partially complement a mutation in the structural gene for the bacterial AGP (glg C), as determined by its light-staining phenotype when cells were exposed to l3 vapors. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and enzymatic pyrophosphorylysis assays of M27 cell extracts showed that the level of expression and AGP activity was comparable to those of cells that expressed the wild-type recombinant enzyme. Kinetic analysis indicated that the M27 AGP displays normal Michaelis constant values for the substrates glucose-1-phosphate and ATP but requires 6- to 10-fold greater levels of 3-phosphoglycerate (3-PGA) than the wild-type recombinant enzyme for maximum activation. DNA sequence analysis showed that M27 contains a single point mutation that resulted in the replacement of aspartic acid 413 to alanine. Substitution of a lysine residue at this site almost completely abolished activation by 3-PGA. Aspartic acid 413 is adjacent to a lysine residue that was previously identified by chemical modification studies to be important in the binding of 3-PGA (K. Ball, J. Preiss [1994] J Biol Chem 269: 24706-24711). The kinetic properties of M27 corroborate the importance of this region in the allosteric regulation of a higher-plant AGP.     

Genome Wide DNA Methylation Profiles Provide Clues to the Origin and Pathogenesis of Germ Cell Tumors

The cell of origin of the five subtypes (I-V) of germ cell tumors (GCTs) are assumed to be germ cells from different maturation stages. This is (potentially) reflected in their methylation status as fetal maturing primordial germ cells are globally demethylated during migration from the yolk sac to the gonad. Imprinted regions are erased in the gonad and later become uniparentally imprinted according to fetal sex. Here, 91 GCTs (type I-IV) and four cell lines were profiled (Illumina’s HumanMethylation450BeadChip). Data was pre-processed controlling for cross hybridization, SNPs, detection rate, probe-type bias and batch effects. The annotation was extended, covering snRNAs/microRNAs, repeat elements and imprinted regions. A Hidden Markov Model-based genome segmentation was devised to identify differentially methylated genomic regions. Methylation profiles allowed for separation of clusters of non-seminomas (type II), seminomas/dysgerminomas (type II), spermatocytic seminomas (type III) and teratomas/dermoid cysts (type I/IV). The seminomas, dysgerminomas and spermatocytic seminomas were globally hypomethylated, in line with previous reports and their demethylated precursor. Differential methylation and imprinting status between subtypes reflected their presumed cell of origin. Ovarian type I teratomas and dermoid cysts showed (partial) sex specific uniparental maternal imprinting. The spermatocytic seminomas showed uniparental paternal imprinting while testicular teratomas exhibited partial imprinting erasure. Somatic imprinting in type II GCTs might indicate a cell of origin after global demethylation but before imprinting erasure. This is earlier than previously described, but agrees with the totipotent/embryonic stem cell like potential of type II GCTs and their rare extra-gonadal localization. The results support the common origin of the type I teratomas and show strong similarity between ovarian type I teratomas and dermoid cysts. In conclusion, we identified specific and global methylation differences between GCT subtypes, providing insight into their developmental timing and underlying developmental biology. Data and extended annotation are deposited at GEO (GSE58538 and GPL18809).     

Energetics of swelling in isolated hepatocytes: A comprehensive study

Cell swelling is now admitted as being a new principle of metabolic control but little is known about the energetics of cell swelling. We have studied the influence of hypo- or hyperosmolarity on both isolated hepatocytes and isolated rat liver mitochondria. Cytosolic hypoosmolarity on isolated hepatocytes induces an increase in matricial volume and does not affect the myxothiazol sensitive respiratory rate while the absolute value of the overall thermodynamic driving force over the electron transport chain increases. This points to an increase in kinetic control upstream the respiratory chain when cytosolic osmolarity is decreased. On isolated rat liver mitochondria incubated in hypoosmotic potassium chloride media, energetic parameters vary as in cells and oxidative phosphorylation efficiency is not affected. Cytosolic hyperosmolarity induced by sodium co-transported amino acids, per se, does not affect either matrix volume or energetic parameters. This is not the case in isolated rat liver mitochondria incubated in sucrose hyperosmotic medium. Indeed, in this medium, adenine nucleotide carrier is inhibited as the external osmolarity increases, which lowers the state 3 respiration close to state 4 level and consequently leads to a decrease in oxidative phosphorylation efficiency. When isolated rat liver mitochondria are incubated in KCl hyperosmotic medium, state 3 respiratory rate, matrix volume and membrane electrical potential vary as a function of time. Indeed, matrix volume is recovered in hyperosmotic KCl medium and this recovery is dependent on Pi-Kentry. State 3 respiratory rate increases and membrane electrical potential difference decreases during the first minutes of mitochondrial incubation until the attainment of the same value as in isoosmotic medium. This shows that matrix volume, flux and force are regulated as a function of time in KCl hyperosmotic medium. Under steady state, neither matrix volume nor energetic parameters are affected. Moreover, NaCl hyperosmotic medium allows matrix volume recovery but induces a decrease in state 3 respiratory flux. This indicates that potassium is necessary for both matrix volume and flux recovery in isolated mitochondria. We conclude that hypoosmotic medium induces an increase in kinetic control both upstream and on the respiratory chain and changes the oxidative phosphorylation response to forces. At steady state, hyperosmolarity, per se, has no effect on oxidative phosphorylation in either isolated hepatocytes or isolated mitochondria incubated in KCl medium. Therefore, potassium plays a key role in matrix volume, flux and force regulation.     

The importance of scale in comparative microbiome research: New insights from the gut and glands of captive and wild lemurs

Research on animal microbiomes is increasingly aimed at determining the evolutionary and ecological factors that govern host–microbiome dynamics, which are invariably intertwined and potentially synergistic. We present three empirical studies related to this topic, each of which relies on the diversity of Malagasy lemurs (representing a total of 19 species) and the comparative approach applied across scales of analysis. In Study 1, we compare gut microbial membership across 14 species in the wild to test the relative importance of host phylogeny and feeding strategy in mediating microbiome structure. Whereas host phylogeny strongly predicted community composition, the same feeding strategies shared by distant relatives did not produce convergent microbial consortia, but rather shaped microbiomes in host lineage‐specific ways, particularly in folivores. In Study 2, we compare 14 species of wild and captive folivores, frugivores, and omnivores, to highlight the importance of captive populations for advancing gut microbiome research. We show that the perturbational effect of captivity is mediated by host feeding strategy and can be mitigated, in part, by modified animal management. In Study 3, we examine various scent‐gland microbiomes across three species in the wild or captivity and show them to vary by host species, sex, body site, and a proxy of social status. These rare data provide support for the bacterial fermentation hypothesis in olfactory signal production and implicate steroid hormones as mediators of microbial community structure. We conclude by discussing the role of scale in comparative microbial studies, the links between feeding strategy and host–microbiome coadaptation, the underappreciated benefits of captive populations for advancing conservation research, and the need to consider the entirety of an animal's microbiota. Ultimately, these studies will help move the field from exploratory to hypothesis‐driven research.