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Background
Kidney function declines considerably with age, but little is known about its clinical significance in the oldest-old.Objectives
To study the association between reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated according to five equations with mortality in the oldest-old.Design
Prospective population-based study.Setting
Municipality of Biella, Piedmont, Italy.Participants
700 subjects aged 85 and older participating in the “Health and Anemia” Study in 2007–2008.Measurements
GFR was estimated using five creatinine-based equations: the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), MAYO Clinic, Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) and Berlin Initiative Study-1 (BIS-1). Survival analysis was used to study mortality in subjects with reduced eGFR (<60 mL/min/1.73m2) compared to subjects with eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73m2.Results
Prevalence of reduced GFR was 90.7% with the C-G, 48.1% with MDRD, 23.3% with MAYO, 53.6% with CKD-EPI and 84.4% with BIS-1. After adjustment for confounders, two-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with reduced eGFR using BIS-1 and C-G equations (adjusted HRs: 2.88 and 3.30, respectively). Five-year mortality was significantly increased in subjects with eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m2 using MAYO, CKD-EPI and, in a graduated fashion in reduced eGFR categories, MDRD. After 5 years, oldest old with an eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73m2 showed a significantly higher risk of death whichever equation was used (adjusted HRs between 2.04 and 2.70).Conclusion
In the oldest old, prevalence of reduced eGFR varies noticeably depending on the equation used. In this population, risk of mortality was significantly higher for reduced GFR estimated with the BIS-1 and C-G equations over the short term. Though after five years the MDRD appeared on the whole a more consistent predictor, differences in mortality prediction among equations over the long term were less apparent. Noteworthy, subjects with a severely reduced GFR were consistently at higher risk of death regardless of the equation used to estimate GFR. 相似文献Low-lying coral reef islands are considered highly vulnerable to climate change, necessitating an improved understanding of when and why they form, and how the timing of formation varies within and among regions. Several testable models have been proposed that explain inter-regional variability as a function of sea-level history and, more recently, a reef platform size model has been proposed from the Maldives (central Indian Ocean) to explain intra-regional (intra-atoll) variability. Here we present chronostratigraphic data from Pipon Island, northern Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enabling us to test the applicability of existing regional island evolution models, and the platform size control hypothesis in a Pacific context. We show that reef platform infilling occurred rapidly (~4–5 mm yr−1) under a “bucket-fill” type scenario. Unusually, this infilling was dominated by terrigenous sedimentation, with platform filling and subsequent reef flat formation complete by ~5000 calibrated years BP (cal BP). Reef flat exposure as sea levels slowly fell post highstand facilitated a shift towards intertidal and subaerial-dominated sedimentation. Our data suggest, however, a lag of ~1500 yr before island initiation (at ~3200 cal BP), i.e. later than that reported from smaller and more evolutionarily mature reef platforms in the region. Our data thus support: (1) the hypothesis that platform size acts to influence the timing of platform filling and subsequent island development at intra-regional scales; and (2) the hypothesis that the low wooded islands of the northern GBR conform to a model of island formation above an elevated reef flat under falling sea levels.
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