On Extrapolating Past the Range of Observed Data When Making Statistical Predictions in Ecology

Ecologists are increasingly using statistical models to predict animal abundance and occurrence in unsampled locations. The reliability of such predictions depends on a number of factors, including sample size, how far prediction locations are from the observed data, and similarity of predictive covariates in locations where data are gathered to locations where predictions are desired. In this paper, we propose extending Cook’s notion of an independent variable hull (IVH), developed originally for application with linear regression models, to generalized regression models as a way to help assess the potential reliability of predictions in unsampled areas. Predictions occurring inside the generalized independent variable hull (gIVH) can be regarded as interpolations, while predictions occurring outside the gIVH can be regarded as extrapolations worthy of additional investigation or skepticism. We conduct a simulation study to demonstrate the usefulness of this metric for limiting the scope of spatial inference when conducting model-based abundance estimation from survey counts. In this case, limiting inference to the gIVH substantially reduces bias, especially when survey designs are spatially imbalanced. We also demonstrate the utility of the gIVH in diagnosing problematic extrapolations when estimating the relative abundance of ribbon seals in the Bering Sea as a function of predictive covariates. We suggest that ecologists routinely use diagnostics such as the gIVH to help gauge the reliability of predictions from statistical models (such as generalized linear, generalized additive, and spatio-temporal regression models).     

Biochemical characterization of serotonin stimulated phosphoinositide turnover

Serotonin (5HT) stimulates phosphoinositide turnover in a number of tissues, but it is not known whether this effect is due to activation of a 5HT receptor which is coupled to phosphoinositide hydrolysis or if the effect is secondary to 5HT stimulated arachidonate metabolism or to the release of another neurotransmitter. In the present study we show that neither indomethacin nor BW 755C inhibits 5HT stimulated phosphoinositide hydrolysis in rat cerebral cortex, suggesting that neither cyclooxygenase nor lipoxygenase activity is required for the response to 5HT. Proteinase inhibitors do not potentiate the response to 5HT, suggesting that 5HT's effect is not due to stimulation of release of a peptide neurotransmitter. Tetrodotoxin does not inhibit the effect of 5HT and 5HT's effect is additive with that of KCl and veratrine. These data suggest that 5HT stimulated phosphoinositide hydrolysis is not dependent upon release of another neurotransmitter.     

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone stimulation of pituitary gonadotrope cells produces an increase in intracellular calcium

Gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulates pituitary gonadotrope cells to release luteinizing hormone (LH). Previous studies have indicated a role for Ca+2 in this process; however, the present study provides the first measurements of an increased intracellular Ca+2 concentration. Pituitary cell cultures enriched for gonadotropes were loaded with quin 2, a fluorescent Ca+2-sensitive molecule. Subsequent addition of GnRH to these cells produced a rapid (within 10 sec) increase in fluorescence (indicating an increase in intracellular free Ca+2). In contrast, two GnRH analogs, des1 GnRH (a very low-affinity binder to the GnRH receptor) and Ac[D-pCl-Phe1,2] DTrp3 DLys6 DAla10-GnRH (a pure GnRH antagonist) produced no such Ca+2 change, thus showing a correlation between increased intracellular Ca+2 and LH release. A functional relationship between increased Ca+2 and LH release was suggested by experiments in which LH release was inhibited from cells loaded with high levels of intracellular quin 2 (in order to chelate intracellular Ca+2). Since this inhibition was completely reversed by addition of the Ca+2 ionophore A23187, quin 2 was not toxic at the concentrations used and apparently inhibited LH release by buffering intracellular Ca+2. The results presented here are consistent with the hypothesis that GnRH-stimulated LH release is mediated by increased intracellular Ca+2 and support the notion that the rate-limiting step in GnRH-stimulated LH release is distal to Ca+2 mobilization.     

The effects of phosphoproteins on collagen self-assembly in tail tendon and incision dentin from rats

Phosphoproteins retard the rate at which collagen molecules undergo self-assembly into fibrils. The inhibition appears to be dependent on the amount of phosphoprotein present, with increasing phosphoprotein concentrations resulting in greater inhibition. Prior treatment of the phosphoprotein with calcium markedly increases the resultant inhibitory effect. Dentin phosphoproteins are considerably more effective than phosvitin in retarding collagen self-assembly, with retardation times for these hard tissue extracellular matrix proteins being 25–30 times greater than control values.