Stochastic Modeling of Calcium in 3D Geometry

Release of inflammatory mediators by mast cells in type 1 immediate-hypersensitivity allergic reactions relies on antigen-dependent increases in cytosolic calcium. Here, we used a series of electron microscopy images to build a 3D reconstruction representing a slice through a rat tumor mast cell, which then served as a basis for stochastic modeling of inositol-trisphosphate-mediated calcium responses. The stochastic approach was verified by reaction-diffusion modeling within the same geometry. Local proximity of the endoplasmic reticulum to either the plasma membrane or mitochondria is predicted to differentially impact local inositol trisphosphate receptor transport. The explicit consideration of organelle spatial relationships represents an important step toward building a comprehensive, realistic model of cellular calcium dynamics.     

Do male hoots betray parasite loads in Tawny Owls?

Bird song structure may honestly reveal the health and vigour of individual males to potential mates and competitors. If this is the case then song may reflect the level of parasitic infections in males. We initially examined the relationship between blood parasite infections and the time taken to respond by 22 male Tawny Owls to a broadcast hoot. We then examined the call structure (total length and frequency) in relation to parasite infection, an index of owl condition and an index of food abundance. Owls with higher parasite loads responded more slowly to an intruder, although this relationship was not significant once condition and vole abundance were controlled for. We found no relationship between call length and any of the measured variables. However, the high frequency and the range of frequencies used in calls decreased with increasing parasite load. Thus, there was the potential for individuals to assess male parasite load from the speed of response and the structure of the call. Experimental tests of these relationships are now required.     

Priming in the Type I-F CRISPR-Cas system triggers strand-independent spacer acquisition,bi-directionally from the primed protospacer

Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR), in combination with CRISPR associated (cas) genes, constitute CRISPR-Cas bacterial adaptive immune systems. To generate immunity, these systems acquire short sequences of nucleic acids from foreign invaders and incorporate these into their CRISPR arrays as spacers. This adaptation process is the least characterized step in CRISPR-Cas immunity. Here, we used Pectobacterium atrosepticum to investigate adaptation in Type I-F CRISPR-Cas systems. Pre-existing spacers that matched plasmids stimulated hyperactive primed acquisition and resulted in the incorporation of up to nine new spacers across all three native CRISPR arrays. Endogenous expression of the cas genes was sufficient, yet required, for priming. The new spacers inhibited conjugation and transformation, and interference was enhanced with increasing numbers of new spacers. We analyzed ∼350 new spacers acquired in priming events and identified a 5′-protospacer-GG-3′ protospacer adjacent motif. In contrast to priming in Type I-E systems, new spacers matched either plasmid strand and a biased distribution, including clustering near the primed protospacer, suggested a bi-directional translocation model for the Cas1:Cas2–3 adaptation machinery. Taken together these results indicate priming adaptation occurs in different CRISPR-Cas systems, that it can be highly active in wild-type strains and that the underlying mechanisms vary.     

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a “stay at home” order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020 on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Our work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.     

Feeding ecology and specialist diet of critically endangered Ridgway's Hawks

Ridgway's Hawks (Buteo ridgwayi) are critically endangered forest raptors endemic to the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, with ～100 pairs remaining in the world. The species is ecologically little known yet such studies are important for understanding critical habitat needs and population dynamics. We studied the provisioning behavior of adults at 22 nests on the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic from 2005 to 2008. Mean brood size was 1.80 ± 0.45, and the mean number of fledglings per nest was 1.10 ± 0.97. We found that 80% of the prey items delivered to nestlings were reptiles, with lizards accounting for 65% of the prey and those in the genus Celestus accounting for nearly 35% of prey. Other prey items included snakes (14%), rats (9%), and smaller proportions of birds, frogs, and centipedes. The number of prey items and amount of biomass delivered to nestlings did not vary with brood size, but adults delivered more prey to 3‐ to 5‐week‐old nestlings and more biomass to 5‐week‐old nestlings. Food delivery rates did not differ between successful or failed nests, suggesting that food availability did not influence nest outcome. Given that most prey items delivered to nestlings in our study were reptiles, conservation strategies developed for Ridgway's Hawks (e.g., translocations and habitat conservation) should take into consideration their specialist reptile diet.