Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation''s citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.     

Bioinformatics--The new home for protein sequence motifs

Protein domains and sequence motifs have been very influentialin the field of molecular biology. These units are the commoncurrency of protein structure and function. The     

Antibacterial Activity of Pseudoalteromonas in the Coral Holobiont

Corals harbor diverse and abundant prokaryotic populations. Bacterial communities residing in the coral mucus layer may be either pathogenic or symbiotic. Some species may produce antibiotics as a method of controlling populations of competing microbial species. The present study characterizes cultivable Pseudoalteromonas sp. isolated from the mucus layer of different coral species from the northern Gulf of Eilat, Red Sea, Israel. Six mucus-associated Pseudoalteromonas spp. obtained from different coral species were screened for antibacterial activity against 23 tester strains. Five of the six Pseudoalteromonas strains demonstrated extracellular antibacterial activity against Gram-positive—but not Gram-negative—tester strains. Active substances secreted into the cell-free supernatant are heat-tolerant and inhibit growth of Bacillus cereus, Staphylococcus aureus, and of ten endogenous Gram-positive marine bacteria isolated from corals. The Pseudoalteromonas spp. isolated from Red sea corals aligned in a phylogenetic tree with previously isolated Pseudoalteromonas spp. of marine origin that demonstrated antimicrobial activity. These results suggest that coral mucus-associated Pseudoalteromonas may play a protective role in the coral holobiont's defense against potential Gram-positive coral pathogens.     

The role of the cysteine-rich region of the β2 integrin subunit in the leukocyte function-associated antigen-1 (LFA-1, αLβ2, CD11a/CD18) heterodimer formation and ligand binding

The cysteine-rich region (CRR) of the β2 integrin subunit was replaced by that of β1 to give the chimera β2NV1. β2NV1 can combine with αL to form a variant leukocyte-function-associated antigen (LFA)-1 on COS cell surface, suggesting that the specificity of the β2 interaction with αL does not lie in the CRR. Unlike those expressing wild-type LFA-1, COS cells expressing αLβ2NV1 are constitutively active in intercellular adhesion molecule (ICAM)-1 adhesion. These results suggest that activation of LFA-1 involves the release of an intramolecular constraint, which is maintained, in part, by the authentic β2 CRR.     

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.