Autumnal moth – why autumnal?

1. As for some other spring‐feeding moths, adult flight of Epirrita autumnata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) occurs in late autumn. Late‐season flight is a result of a prolonged pupal period. Potential evolutionary explanations for this phenological pattern are evaluated. 2. In a laboratory rearing, there was a weak correlation between pupation date and the time of adult emergence. A substantial genetic difference in pupal period was found between two geographic populations. Adaptive evolution of eclosion time can thus be expected. 3. Metabolic costs of a prolonged pupal period were found to be moderate but still of some ecological significance. Pupal mortality is likely to form the main cost of the prolonged pupal period. 4. Mortality rates of adults, exposed in the field, showed a declining temporal trend from late summer to normal eclosion time in autumn. Lower predation pressure on adults may constitute the decisive selective advantage of late‐season flight. It is suggested that ants, not birds, were the main predators responsible for the temporal trend. 5. Egg mortality was estimated to be low; it is thus unlikely that the late adult period is selected for to reduce the time during which eggs are exposed to predators. 6. In a laboratory experiment, oviposition success was maximal at the time of actual flight peak of E. autumnata, however penalties resulting from sub‐optimal timing of oviposition remained limited.     

Morphological Parameters Associated with Ruptured Posterior Communicating Aneurysms

The rupture risk of unruptured intracranial aneurysms is known to be dependent on the size of the aneurysm. However, the association of morphological characteristics with ruptured aneurysms has not been established in a systematic and location specific manner for the most common aneurysm locations. We evaluated posterior communicating artery (PCoA) aneurysms for morphological parameters associated with aneurysm rupture in that location. CT angiograms were evaluated to generate 3-D models of the aneurysms and surrounding vasculature. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate morphological parameters including aneurysm volume, aspect ratio, size ratio, distance to ICA bifurcation, aneurysm angle, vessel angles, flow angles, and vessel-to-vessel angles. From 2005–2012, 148 PCoA aneurysms were treated in a single institution. Preoperative CTAs from 63 patients (40 ruptured, 23 unruptured) were available and analyzed. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that smaller volume (p = 0.011), larger aneurysm neck diameter (0.048), and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.005) were the most strongly associated with aneurysm rupture after adjusting for all other clinical and morphological variables. Multivariate subgroup analysis for patients with visualized PCoA demonstrated that larger neck diameter (p = 0.018) and shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance (p = 0.011) were significantly associated with rupture. Intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with smaller volume, larger maximum height, and smaller aneurysm angle, in addition to lateral projection, male sex, and lack of hypertension. We found that shorter ICA bifurcation to aneurysm distance is significantly associated with PCoA aneurysm rupture. This is a new physically intuitive parameter that can be measured easily and therefore be readily applied in clinical practice to aid in the evaluation of patients with PCoA aneurysms.     

濒危植物永瓣藤叶片功能性状对环境因子的响应

植物叶片功能性状能够响应环境条件的变化，反应了植物对环境的适应策略。当前，针对藤本植物叶片功能性状地理格局及其环境驱动力的研究较少。以国家重点保护植物永瓣藤（Monimopetalum chinense）为研究对象，对其分布区内11个种群的15个叶片功能性状进行测量，并结合气候、土壤因子来解释叶性状变异。比较叶片性状在局域和区域尺度上的种内变异程度，利用多元逐步回归分析环境因子对叶性状的影响。结果表明，在局域尺度上，永瓣藤叶功能性状变异系数介于3.0%-22.5%，其中，叶面积变异程度最大，叶片碳含量变异最小。永瓣藤叶片形状随纬度上升而变得宽且圆。叶片磷含量相对较低，永瓣藤的生长可能受到了磷限制。土壤与气候因子是叶片性状的重要驱动因素，解释了25%-97%的叶片性状变异。在温度和水分充足的情况下，永瓣藤叶片趋向于的慢速生长的保守策略。总体来说，永瓣藤叶片功能性状通过一定的种内变异和性状组合，并与气候、土壤因子相互作用，适应当前的环境条件。     

气候变化和人类活动对中国北方旱区植被变绿的定量贡献

气候变化和大规模的生态恢复使中国北方旱区植被发生了显著变化，量化气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献，对于旱区生态系统管理和应对未来气候变化具有重要意义。目前，中国北方旱区植被变化影响因素的时间动态（2000年大规模生态恢复工程实施前后）和空间异质性（沿干旱梯度）仍需进一步的定量研究。基于多源数据，采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和随机森林模型等方法，分析了1981-2018年中国北方旱区气候和植被的时空变化规律，量化了2000年前后气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献并分析其在干旱梯度上的空间差异性。结果表明：（1）1981-2018年期间，中国北方旱区的叶面积指数（LAI）平均增加速率为（0.0037±0.0443） a^-1，且增加速率沿干旱梯度增大。2000年前仅10.46%（P<0.05）的地区显著变绿，而2000年后达到36.84%，且植被变绿主要归因于非树木植被。（2）2000年后降水对植被变绿的正效应在不同干旱梯度均增加，而在半干旱区和亚湿润干旱区，温度对植被变绿由正向促进转为负向抑制，而辐射在干旱区由负效应转向正效应。（3）2000年前后，气候变化均主导着植被的动态，贡献率分别为96.07%和73.72%，人类活动的贡献在2000年后进一步增强（从3.93%增加到26.28%），且沿着干旱梯度而增加，其中人类活动对植被变绿的贡献在半干旱地区增加最显著（+0.0289 m² m^-2 a^-1，P<0.05）。研究结果可为未来气候变化下中国北方旱区的植被恢复和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Systematic Screening of Drosophila Deficiency Mutations for Embryonic Phenotypes and Orphan Receptor Ligands

This paper defines a collection of Drosophila deletion mutations (deficiencies) that can be systematically screened for embryonic phenotypes, orphan receptor ligands, and genes affecting protein localization. It reports the results of deficiency screens we have conducted that have revealed new axon guidance phenotypes in the central nervous system and neuromuscular system and permitted a quantitative assessment of the number of potential genes involved in regulating guidance of specific motor axon branches. Deficiency “kits” that cover the genome with a minimum number of lines have been established to facilitate gene mapping. These kits cannot be systematically analyzed for phenotypes, however, since embryos homozygous for many deficiencies in these kits fail to develop due to the loss of key gene products encoded within the deficiency. To create new kits that can be screened for phenotype, we have examined the development of the nervous system in embryos homozygous for more than 700 distinct deficiency mutations. A kit of ∼400 deficiency lines for which homozygotes have a recognizable nervous system and intact body walls encompasses >80% of the genome. Here we show examples of screens of this kit for orphan receptor ligands and neuronal antigen expression. It can also be used to find genes involved in expression, patterning, and subcellular localization of any protein that can be visualized by antibody staining. A subset kit of 233 deficiency lines, for which homozygotes develop relatively normally to late stage 16, covers ∼50% of the genome. We have screened it for axon guidance phenotypes, and we present examples of new phenotypes we have identified. The subset kit can be used to screen for phenotypes affecting all embryonic organs. In the future, these deficiency kits will allow Drosophila researchers to rapidly and efficiently execute genome-wide anatomical screens that require examination of individual embryos at high magnification.     

Conditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation Following a Group Sequential Test

We consider estimation after a group sequential test. An estimator that is unbiased or has small bias may have substantial conditional bias (Troendle and Yu, 1999, Coburger and Wassmer, 2001). In this paper we derive the conditional maximum likelihood estimators of both the primary parameter and a secondary parameter, and investigate their properties within a conditional inference framework. The method applies to both the usual and adaptive group sequential test designs. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)