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The potential for reducing the occurrence of shallow landslides through targeted reforestation of critical parts of a river basin is explored through mathematical modelling. Through the systematic investigation of land management options, modelling allows the optimum strategies to be selected ahead of any real intervention in the basin. Physically based models, for which the parameters can be evaluated using physical reasoning, offer particular advantages for predicting the effects of possible future changes in land use and climate. Typically a physically based landslide model consists of a coupled hydrological model (for soil moisture) and a geotechnical slope stability model, along with an impact model, such as basin sediment yield. An application of the SHETRAN model to the 65.8-km2 Guabalcón basin in central Ecuador demonstrates a technique for identifying the areas of a basin most susceptible to shallow landsliding and for quantifying the effects of different vegetation covers on landslide incidence. Thus, for the modelled scenario, increasing root cohesion from 300 to 1500 Pa causes a two-thirds reduction in the number of landslides. Useful information can be obtained even on the basis of imperfect data availability but model output should be interpreted carefully in the light of parameter uncertainty. 相似文献
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The phylogeny of Greya Busck (Lepidoptera: Prodoxidae) was inferred from
nucleotide sequence variation across a 765-bp region in the cytochrome
oxidase I and II genes of the mitochondrial genome. Most parsimonious
relationships of 25 haplotypes from 16 Greya species and two outgroup
genera (Tetragma and Prodoxus) showed substantial congruence with the
species relationships indicated by morphological variation. Differences
between mitochondrial and morphological trees were found primarily in the
positions of two species, G. variabilis and G. pectinifera, and in the
branching order of the three major species groups in the genus. Conflicts
between the data sets were examined by comparing levels of homoplasy in
characters supporting alternative hypotheses. The phylogeny of Greya
species suggests that host-plant association at the family level and larval
feeding mode are conservative characters. Transition/transversion ratios
estimated by reconstruction of nucleotide substitutions on the phylogeny
had a range of 2.0-9.3, when different subsets of the phylogeny were used.
The decline of this ratio with the increase in maximum sequence divergence
among taxa indicates that transitions are masked by transversions along
deeper internodes or long branches of the phylogeny. Among transitions,
substitutions of A-->G and T-->C outnumbered their reciprocal
substitutions by 2-6 times, presumably because of the approximately 4:1
(77%) A+T-bias in nucleotide base composition. Of all transversions,
73%-80% were A<-->T substitutions, 85% of which occurred at third
positions of codons; these estimates did not decrease with an increase in
maximum sequence divergence of taxa included in the analysis. The high
frequency of A<-->T substitutions is either a reflection or an
explanation of the 92% A+T bias at third codon positions.
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