Serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus for disease diagnosis and estimating the infection rate in Thai population

Background

Individuals infected with the 2009 pandemic virus A(H1N1) developed serological response which can be measured by hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (microNT) assays.

Methodology/Principal Findings

MicroNT and HI assays for specific antibody to the 2009 pandemic virus were conducted in serum samples collected at the end of the first epidemic wave from various groups of Thai people: laboratory confirmed cases, blood donors and health care workers (HCW) in Bangkok and neighboring province, general population in the North and the South, as well as archival sera collected at pre- and post-vaccination from vaccinees who received influenza vaccine of the 2006 season. This study demonstrated that goose erythrocytes yielded comparable HI antibody titer as compared to turkey erythrocytes. In contrast to the standard protocol, our investigation found out the necessity to eliminate nonspecific inhibitor present in the test sera by receptor destroying enzyme (RDE) prior to performing microNT assay. The investigation in pre-pandemic serum samples showed that HI antibody was more specific to the 2009 pandemic virus than NT antibody. Based on data from pre-pandemic sera together with those from the laboratory confirmed cases, HI antibody titers ≥40 for adults and ≥20 for children could be used as the cut-off level to differentiate between the individuals with or without past infection by the 2009 pandemic virus.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on the cut-off criteria, the infection rates of 7 and 12.8% were estimated in blood donors and HCW, respectively after the first wave of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Among general population, the infection rate of 58.6% was found in children versus 3.1% in adults.     

Observations on the Ecology of Weaver Ants (Oecophylla smaragdina Fabricius) in a Thai Mangrove Ecosystem and Their Effect on Herbivory of Rhizophora mucronata Lam.

Ants of the genus Oecophylla are predators of other insects and are able to protect a variety of terrestrial plants against pest insects; however, observations on the ecology of these ants in mangrove forests are lacking. General observations on the ecology of Oecophylla smaragdina were carried out in a Thai mangrove forest to determine if these ants can protect their host plants in less favorable mangrove habitats. Leaf herbivory and the density of O. smaragdina ants were measured on Rhizophora mucronata trees at two sites. The results showed a negative correlation between ant density and herbivory. At both sites, the mean percent damaged leaf area was more than four times higher on trees without ants compared to “ant‐trees.” A significant negative correlation was found between tree mean percent leaf damage and the density of ants on the tree. Furthermore, on trees with ants, there was less herbivory on leaves close to ant nests compared to other leaves on the tree. Most damage was caused by chrysomelid beetles (62%) and sesarmid crabs (25%) and both types of herbivory were significantly reduced on ant‐trees.     

The Impact of the Demographic Transition on Dengue in Thailand: Insights from a Statistical Analysis and Mathematical Modeling

Background

An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics.

Methods and Findings

Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population''s age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes.

Conclusions

Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Interior-Point Methods for Estimating Seasonal Parameters in Discrete-Time Infectious Disease Models

Infectious diseases remain a significant health concern around the world. Mathematical modeling of these diseases can help us understand their dynamics and develop more effective control strategies. In this work, we show the capabilities of interior-point methods and nonlinear programming (NLP) formulations to efficiently estimate parameters in multiple discrete-time disease models using measles case count data from three cities. These models include multiplicative measurement noise and incorporate seasonality into multiple model parameters. Our results show that nearly identical patterns are estimated even when assuming seasonality in different model parameters, and that these patterns show strong correlation to school term holidays across very different social settings and holiday schedules. We show that interior-point methods provide a fast and flexible approach to parameterizing models that can be an alternative to more computationally intensive methods.     

Correlation between reported dengue illness history and seropositivity in rural Thailand

In the latest World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for Dengvaxia implementation, either serological testing or a person’s history of prior dengue illness may be used as supporting evidence to identify dengue virus (DENV)-immune individuals eligible for vaccination, in areas with limited capacity for laboratory confirmation. This analysis aimed to estimate the concordance between self-reported dengue illness histories and seropositivity in a prospective cohort study for dengue virus infection in Kamphaeng Phet province, a dengue-endemic area in northern Thailand. The study enrolled 2,076 subjects from 516 multigenerational families, with a median age of 30.6 years (range 0–90 years). Individual and family member dengue illness histories were obtained by questionnaire. Seropositivity was defined based on hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays. Overall seropositivity for DENV was 86.5% among those aged 9–45 years, which increased with age. 18.5% of participants reported a history of dengue illness prior to enrollment; 30.1% reported a previous DENV infection in the family, and 40.1% reported DENV infection in either themselves or a family member. Relative to seropositivity by HAI in the vaccine candidate group, the sensitivity and specificity of individual prior dengue illness history were 18.5% and 81.6%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity of reported dengue illness in a family member were 29.8% and 68.0%, and of either the individual or a family member were 40.1% and 60.5%. Notably, 13.4% of individuals reporting prior dengue illness were seronegative. Given the high occurrence of asymptomatic and mild DENV infection, self-reported dengue illness history is poorly sensitive for prior exposure and may misclassify individuals as ‘exposed’ when they were not. This analysis highlights that a simple, highly sensitive, and highly specific test for determining serostatus prior to Dengvaxia vaccination is urgently needed.     

Lack of ant attendance may induce compensatory plant growth

Three levels in ant–plant protection systems need to be considered to fully understand how these symbiotic systems work. Here we present the effect of Oecophylla smaragdina ants on (1) the arthropod community, (2) herbivory, and (3) plant performance, within a studied mangrove ant–plant protection system. On Rhizophora mucronata trees in Thailand ants successfully colonised ant trees attached with a string to a natural ant tree, whereas they were unable to colonise control trees without this connection. Trees were monitored and arthropods (numbers and composition), leaf damage, leaf turnover and growth rates (stem diameter, tree height and total leaf area) were recorded in two surveys covering a period of 12 months. The number of herbivorous arthropods, but not the number of predators, was significantly lower on ant trees compared to control trees. Likewise, the amount of leaf damage inflicted by the four major groups of herbivores (Chrysomelidae, Tortricidae, Geometridae and Sesarminae) was significantly lower on ant trees compared to control trees and so was the leaf turnover rate. In spite of this, the released herbivore pressure on ant trees did not translate into higher growth rates. In contrast, all growth responses increased more on control trees compared to ant trees. Differences between the two groups were insignificant but leaf area increase was only marginally nonsignificant (P=0.062). The results show that ants remove herbivorous arthropods more efficiently than predators but ant-colonised mangroves do not necessarily benefit from this despite the resulting decrease in herbivory.     

Weaver Ants Increase Premature Loss of Leaves Used for Nest Construction in Rhizophora Trees1

Oecophylla ants utilize living leaves when they construct their nests. We investigated how Oecophylla smaragdina nests in southern Thailand affected leaf performance on the mangrove tree Rhizophora mucronata. Leaves used in nests and neighboring leaves showed a higher rate of premature leaf loss compared to control leaves farther from the nests. However, a tree's total cost due to the higher premature leaf loss was estimated to be approximately between 3‐ and 20‐fold lower than the benefit derived from ant protection, detected in a previous study ( Offenberg et al. 2004 ).     

Existence of two strains of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Habrobracon hebetor</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera: Braconidae): a complex in Thailand and Japan

Habrobracon hebetor Say (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is a cosmopolitan gregarious ectoparasitoid that attacks larvae of several species of Lepidoptera. Although there are two genetically different strains within H. hebetor, distribution of the strains has been poorly understood. In 2010, in Thailand, where H. hebetor has been known as a parasitoid of stored grain pests, it was found that H. hebetor attacked Opisina arenosella Walker (Lepidoptera: Oecophoridae), which is an invasive pest of coconut palm. For correct identification of this H. hebetor, we conducted DNA analysis and cross tests using populations collected from O. arenosella and stored grain pests in Thailand and populations in Japan known as H. hebetor. We obtained 413 bp of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (COI) sequences and 414 bp of 16S rRNA gene sequences, and both indicated that there are two distinct clades within H. hebetor: one contains insects from Thailand, Spain, India, and Barbados; the other contains insects from Japan and the USA. There were no genetic differences or sexual isolation between Thai populations from different hosts. Our results also showed that populations in Thailand were sexually isolated from a H. hebetor population in Japan.