Robust uniform persistence and competitive exclusion in a nonautonomous multi-strain SIR epidemic model with disease-induced mortality

A nonautonomous version of the SIR epidemic model in Ackleh and Allen (2003) is considered, for competition of $n$ infection strains in a host population. The model assumes total cross immunity, mass action incidence, density-dependent host mortality and disease-induced mortality. Sufficient conditions for the robust uniform persistence of the total population, as well as of the susceptible and infected subpopulations, are given. The first two forms of persistence depend entirely on the rate at which the population grows from the extinction state, respectively the rate at which the disease is vertically transmitted to offspring. We also discuss the competitive exclusion among the $n$ infection strains, namely when a single infection strain survives and all the others go extinct. Numerical simulations are also presented, to account for the situations not covered by the analytical results. These simulations suggest that the nonautonomous nature of the model combined with the disease induced mortality allow for many strains to coexist. The theoretical approach developed here is general enough to apply to other nonautonomous epidemic models.     

A stoichiometric organic matter decomposition model in a chemostat culture

Biodegradation, the disintegration of organic matter by microorganism, is essential for the cycling of environmental organic matter. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of this biodegradation have increasingly gained attention from the industries and government regulators. Since changes in environmental organic matter are strenuous to measure, mathematical models are essential in understanding and predicting the dynamics of organic matters. Empirical evidence suggests that grazers’ preying activity on microorganism helps to facilitate biodegradation. In this paper, we formulate and investigate a stoichiometry-based organic matter decomposition model in a chemostat culture that incorporates the dynamics of grazers. We determine the criteria for the uniform persistence and extinction of the species and chemicals. Our results show that (1) if at the unique internal steady state, the per capita growth rate of bacteria is greater than the sum of the bacteria’s death and dilution rates, then the bacteria will persist uniformly; (2) if in addition to this, (a) the grazers’ per capita growth rate is greater than the sum of the dilution rate and grazers’ death rate, and (b) the death rate of bacteria is less than some threshold, then the grazers will persist uniformly. These conditions can be achieved simultaneously if there are sufficient resources in the feed bottle. As opposed to the microcosm decomposition models’ results, in a chemostat culture, chemicals always persist. Besides the transcritical bifurcation observed in microcosm models, our chemostat model exhibits Hopf bifurcation and Rosenzweig’s paradox of enrichment phenomenon. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that the most effective way to facilitate degradation is to decrease the dilution rate.