Predation risk effects on fitness related measures in a resident bird

Predation risk is thought to be highly variable in space and time. However, breeding avian predators may create locally fixed and spatially fairly predictable predation risk determined by the distance to their nest. From the prey perspective, this creates predation risk gradients that potentially have an effect on fitness and behavioural decisions of prey. We studied how breeding avian predators affect habitat selection (nest location) and the resulting fitness consequences in a northern population of resident willow tit ( Parus montanus ). Data included 429 willow tit nests over a four year period in a landscape containing a total of 33 avian predator nests. Willow tit nests were located randomly in the landscape and no predator avoidance in habitat selection or emptying of territories in proximity to predators was observed. Nestling size, however, was positively associated with distance from predator nests (n=252). Nestling mass and wing length were about 4.5% smaller close to predator nests compared to nestlings raised far from predator nests. Tarsus length also exhibited a positive relationship with increasing distance from predator nest but this was limited to habitats of young forests and pine bogs or dense mixed forests (4% increase). It is likely that habitat structural complexity influenced the perception of predation risk in different habitats. Our results indicate that willow tits do not provide reliable cues of predator free habitats for settling migrants. Nonetheless, breeding avian predators may create predictable predation risk in the landscape which is an important factor affecting reproductive success and potentially the demography of prey populations.