Who flies first? – habitat‐specific phenological shifts of butterflies and orthopterans in the light of climate change: a case study from the south‐east Mediterranean

1. Insects undergo phenological change at different rates, showing no consistent trend between habitats, time periods, species or groups. Understanding how and why this variability occurs is crucial. 2. Phenological patterns of butterflies and Orthoptera were analysed using a novel approach of standardised major axis (SMA) analysis. It was investigated whether: (i) phenology (the mean date and duration of flight) of butterflies and Orthoptera changed from one survey (1998 and 1999 respectively) to another (2011), (ii) the rate at which phenology changed differed between taxa and (iii) phenological change was significantly different across habitat types (agriculture fields, grasslands, and forests). Using the 2011 dataset, we investigated relationships between habitat‐specific variables and species phenology. 3. For both groups, late‐emerging species had an advanced onset on the second survey while the duration showed no consistent trend for butterflies and did not change for Orthoptera. Although the rate at which phenology changed was consistent between the two groups, at the habitat level, a longer duration of flight period emerged for butterflies in agriculture fields while Orthoptera showed no differentiation in flight duration between habitats. We found an earlier emergence of butterflies in grasslands compared to forests, attributed to habitat‐specific temperature, whereas spatial variation in humidity had a significantly lower effect on butterflies' phenology in grasslands compared to forests. A gradual delay of butterfly appearances as the canopy cover increased was also found. 4. The utility of SMA analysis was demonstrated in phenological studies and evidence was detected that both habitat type and habitat‐specific variables refine species' phenological responses.