Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m² units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km^?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km^?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.     

Weighted average regression and environmental calibration as a tool for quantifying climate-driven changes in vegetation

Aims Studies of the climatic responses of plant assemblages via vegetation-based environmental reconstructions by weighted averaging (WA) regression and calibration are a recent development in modern vegetation ecology. However, the performance of this technique for plot-based vegetation datasets has not been rigorously tested. We assess the estimation accuracy of the WA approach by comparing results, mainly the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of WA regressions for six different vegetation datasets (total species, high-frequency species and low-frequency species as both abundance and incidence) each from two sites.     

Phylogeny,niche conservatism and the latitudinal diversity gradient in mammals

Biologists have long searched for mechanisms responsible for the increase in species richness with decreasing latitude. The strong correlation between species richness and climate is frequently interpreted as reflecting a causal link via processes linked to energy or evolutionary rates. Here, we investigate how the aggregation of clades, as dictated by phylogeny, can give rise to significant climate–richness gradients without gradients in diversification or environmental carrying capacity. The relationship between climate and species richness varies considerably between clades, regions and time periods in a global-scale phylogenetically informed analysis of all terrestrial mammal species. Many young clades show negative richness–temperature slopes (more species at cooler temperatures), with the ages of these clades coinciding with the expansion of temperate climate zones in the late Eocene. In carnivores, we find steeply positive richness–temperature slopes in clades with restricted distributions and tropical origins (e.g. cat clade), whereas widespread, temperate clades exhibit shallow, negative slopes (e.g. dog–bear clade). We show that the slope of the global climate–richness gradient in mammals is driven by aggregating Chiroptera (bats) with their Eutherian sister group. Our findings indicate that the evolutionary history should be accounted for as part of any search for causal links between environment and species richness.     

Fern species richness along a central Himalayan elevational gradient, Nepal

Aim The study explores fern species richness patterns along a central Himalayan elevational gradient (100–4800 m a.s.l.) and evaluates factors influencing the spatial increase and decrease of fern richness. Location The Himalayas stretch from west to east by 20°, i.e. 75–95° east, and Nepal is located from 80 to 88° east in this range. Methods We used published data of the distribution of ferns and fern allies to interpolate species elevational ranges. Defining species presence between upper and lower elevation limit is the basis for richness estimates. The richness pattern was regressed against the total number of rainy days, and gradients that are linearly related to elevation, such as length of the growing season, potential evapotranspiration (PET, energy), and a moisture index (MI = PET/mean annual rainfall). The regressions were performed by generalized linear models. Results A unimodal relationship between species richness and elevation was observed, with maximum species richness at 2000 m. Fern richness has a unimodal response along the energy gradients, and a linear response with moisture gradients. Main conclusions The study confirms the importance of moisture on fern distributions as the peak coincides spatially with climatic factors that enhance moisture levels; the maximum number of rainy days and the cloud zone. Energy‐related variables probably control species richness directly at higher elevations but at the lower end the effect is more probably related to moisture.     

A Sense of Security: Carpentry Apprentices Handling Uncertain and Dangerous Work Tasks

ABSTRACT

This article explores how carpentry apprentices learn to handle uncertain and potentially dangerous situations in the working environment at construction sites. The analysis focuses on how these situations are negotiated at the workplaces in relation to bodily sensations of pain, relations with their co-workers and the importance placed on ‘getting the work done’. It shows that instead of working to eliminate potentially dangerous situations through the use of precautionary measures such as lifting equipment or personal protection gear, the apprentices learn to understand risk and uncertainties as a part of the job through general learning processes at the workplace.     

Niche conservatism as an emerging principle in ecology and conservation biology

The diversity of life is ultimately generated by evolution, and much attention has focused on the rapid evolution of ecological traits. Yet, the tendency for many ecological traits to instead remain similar over time [niche conservatism (NC)] has many consequences for the fundamental patterns and processes studied in ecology and conservation biology. Here, we describe the mounting evidence for the importance of NC to major topics in ecology (e.g. species richness, ecosystem function) and conservation (e.g. climate change, invasive species). We also review other areas where it may be important but has generally been overlooked, in both ecology (e.g. food webs, disease ecology, mutualistic interactions) and conservation (e.g. habitat modification). We summarize methods for testing for NC, and suggest that a commonly used and advocated method (involving a test for phylogenetic signal) is potentially problematic, and describe alternative approaches. We suggest that considering NC: (1) focuses attention on the within‐species processes that cause traits to be conserved over time, (2) emphasizes connections between questions and research areas that are not obviously related (e.g. invasives, global warming, tropical richness), and (3) suggests new areas for research (e.g. why are some clades largely nocturnal? why do related species share diseases?).     

Plant species richness in Fennoscandia: evaluating the relative importance of climate and history

In Fennoscandia, the species richness of vascular plants in 75 × 75 km squares is highly correlated with geographical (latitude and longitude) and climatic variables (accumulated respiration sum, mean January temperature, and mean July temperature). When generalised additive models (GAM) are used, over 80% of the variation in richness can be statistically explained by geography and climate. Even though climate has such a high explanatory power we present several arguments for interpreting these results with care. Climate has no ecologically sound explanatory power when the variation due to latitude and longitude is accounted for, and the strongest latitudinal gradient in summer temperature is in an area where the latitudinal gradient in species richness is absent. We discuss the role that Holocene history might have on the variation in species richness, and argue that history and climate should be considered simultaneously when explaining the observed patterns in the geographical variation of species richness.     

Upward shift in elevational plant species ranges in Sikkilsdalen,central Norway

Phytosociological studies can be an important tool to detect temporal vegetation changes in response to global climate change. In this study, we present the results of a resurvey of a plot‐based phytosociological study from Sikkilsdalen, central Norway, originally executed between 1922 and 1932. By using a detailed phytosociological study we are able to investigate several aspects of elevational shifts in species ranges. Here we tested for upward and downward shifts in observed upper and lower distribution limits of species, as well as changes in species optima along an elevational gradient, and related the observed range shifts to species traits that could explain the observed trends. More species shifted upwards than downwards, independently of whether we were investigating shifts in species’ upper or lower distribution ranges or in species optima. However, shifts in species upper range margins changed independently of their lower range margins. Linking different species traits to the magnitude of shifts we found that species with a higher preference for prolonged snow cover shifted upwards more in their upper elevational limits and in their optima than species that prefer a shorter snow cover, whereas no species traits were correlated with the magnitude of changes in lower limits. The observed change in species ranges concord both with studies on other mountains in the region and with studies from other alpine areas. Furthermore, our study indicates that different factors are influencing species ranges at the upper and lower range limits. Increased precipitation rates and increased temperatures are considered the most important factors for the observed changes, probably mainly through altering the pattern in snow cover dynamics in the area.