A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Multicenter evaluation of the performance and clinical utility in longitudinal monitoring of the Bayer Immuno 1 complexed PSA assay.

We conducted a multicenter evaluation of the analytical and clinical performance of the automated Bayer Immuno 1 complexed PSA (cPSA) assay, and compared assay performance to the Bayer Immuno 1 PSA assay. We sought to determine whether measurements of cPSA could be of clinical utility in the management of patients with prostate cancer. Results of the 10-day imprecision across three evaluation sites produced total CV < 2.50% and an analytical sensitivity of 0.02 microgram/L. There was an increased trend in clinical sensitivity for prostate cancer with increasing stage of disease (71-86%). Clinical specificity for patients with benign urogenital disease was 74.8%, and for other nonprostate diseases ranged from 91.1-100%. Retrospective serial monitoring of 155 patients with prostate cancer demonstrated concordance of cPSA measurements to clinical status for 97% of the patients analyzed. Results from the clinical studies using the Bayer Immuno 1 cPSA assay were comparable to results obtained with the Bayer Immuno 1 PSA assay. The Bayer Immuno 1 cPSA assay demonstrates analytical performance and clinical effectiveness in the management of prostate cancer patients during the course of disease and therapy.     

Effect of feeding boxes on the behavior of stereotyping amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Zurich Zoo,Zurich, Switzerland

The stereotyped pacing shown by the two Amur tigers in the Zurich Zoo was hypothesized as being caused by permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior. Several electrically controlled feeding boxes were installed and access to each box was possible only twice a day for 15 min at semi‐random times. The boxes had to be opened actively by the tigers. Two trials were carried out: one with solitary confinement, and one with paired confinement. During box feeding, the female's stereotyped pacing was significantly reduced from 16% (solitary confinement, conventional feeding) and 7% (paired confinement, conventional feeding) to 1% (solitary confinement) and less than 0.01% (paired confinement) of the daily observed time. The female's sleeping increased significantly in both solitary and paired confinement. The male only showed a significant reduction in stereotyped pacing behavior when kept with the female (conventional feeding: 10%; box feeding: <0.01% of the daily observed time). On days with a box‐feeding regime in paired confinement, the male spent 25% (83 min) of the observed time with active behavior at the feeding boxes. The results support the hypothesis that permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior causes stereotyped pacing in adult tigers. Zoo Biol 21:573–584, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Near-infrared spectroscopy for bioprocess monitoring and control.

This article describes the calibration of a spectroscopic scanning instrument for the measurement of selected contaminants in a complex biological process stream. Its use is for the monitoring of a process in which contaminants are to be removed selectively by flocculation from yeast cell homogenate. The main contaminants are cell debris, protein, and RNA. A low-cost instrument has been developed for sensitivity in the region of the NIR spectrum (from 1900 to 2500 nm) where preliminary work found NIR signatures from cell debris, protein, and RNA. Calibration models have been derived using a multivariate method for concentrations of these contaminants, such as would be found after the flocculation process. Two strategies were compared for calibrating the NIR instrument. In one case, samples were prepared by adding materials representative of the contaminants to clarified yeast homogenate so the contaminant levels were well known but outside the range of interest. In the other case, where samples were like those from the process stream after flocculation and floc removal, there was uncertainty of analysis of contaminant level, but the calibration was in the range of interest. Calibration using process stream samples gave results close to those derived from traditional assays. When the calibration models were used to predict the contaminant concentrations in previously unseen samples, the correlation coefficients between measurements and predictions were above 90% in all cases but one. The prediction errors were similar to the errors in the traditional assays.     

Determination of free and esterified cholesterol in human serum by high-performance liquid chromatography and optical activity detection

A separation and detection scheme is presented for the determination of free, esterified and total cholesterol in human serum. Separation is accomplished by reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography and the eluate is monitored by the laser-based optical activity detector. The method is simple, accurate and has the advantage of specificity and selectivity when compared with the many methods commonly used.