Design Characteristics Influence Performance of Clinical Prediction Rules in Validation: A Meta-Epidemiological Study

Background

Many new clinical prediction rules are derived and validated. But the design and reporting quality of clinical prediction research has been less than optimal. We aimed to assess whether design characteristics of validation studies were associated with the overestimation of clinical prediction rules’ performance. We also aimed to evaluate whether validation studies clearly reported important methodological characteristics.

Methods

Electronic databases were searched for systematic reviews of clinical prediction rule studies published between 2006 and 2010. Data were extracted from the eligible validation studies included in the systematic reviews. A meta-analytic meta-epidemiological approach was used to assess the influence of design characteristics on predictive performance. From each validation study, it was assessed whether 7 design and 7 reporting characteristics were properly described.

Results

A total of 287 validation studies of clinical prediction rule were collected from 15 systematic reviews (31 meta-analyses). Validation studies using case-control design produced a summary diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) 2.2 times (95% CI: 1.2–4.3) larger than validation studies using cohort design and unclear design. When differential verification was used, the summary DOR was overestimated by twofold (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to complete, partial and unclear verification. The summary RDOR of validation studies with inadequate sample size was 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2 -3.1) compared to studies with adequate sample size. Study site, reliability, and clinical prediction rule was adequately described in 10.1%, 9.4%, and 7.0% of validation studies respectively.

Conclusion

Validation studies with design shortcomings may overestimate the performance of clinical prediction rules. The quality of reporting among studies validating clinical prediction rules needs to be improved.     

Ascorbic acid does not affect large elastic artery compliance or central blood pressure in young and older men

Large elastic artery compliance is reduced and arterial blood pressure (BP) is increased in the central (cardiothoracic) circulation with aging. Reactive oxygen species may tonically modulate central arterial compliance and BP in humans, and oxidative stress may contribute to adverse changes with aging. If so, antioxidant administration may have beneficial effects. Young (Y; 26 +/- 1 yr, mean +/- SE) and older (O; 63 +/- 2 yr, mean +/- SE) healthy men were studied at baseline and during acute (intravenous infusion; Y: n = 13, O: n = 12) and chronic (500 mg/day for 30 days; Y: n = 10, O: n = 10) administration of ascorbic acid (vitamin C). At baseline, peripheral (brachial artery) BP did not differ in the two groups, but carotid artery compliance was 43% lower (1.2 +/- 0.1 vs. 2.1 +/- 0.1 mm(2)/mmHg x 10(-1), P < 0.01) and central (carotid) BP (systolic: 116 +/- 5 vs. 101 +/- 3 mmHg, P < 0.05, and pulse pressure: 43 +/- 4 vs. 36 +/- 3 mmHg, P = 0.16), carotid augmentation index (AIx; 27.8 +/- 7.8 vs. -20.0 +/- 6.6%, P < 0.001), and aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV; 950 +/- 88 vs. 640 +/- 38 cm/s, P < 0.01) were higher in the older men. Plasma ascorbic acid concentrations did not differ at baseline (Y: 71 +/- 5 vs. O: 61 +/- 7 micromol/l, P = 0.23), increased (P < 0.001) to supraphysiological levels during infusion (Y: 1240 +/- 57 and O: 1,056 +/- 83 micromol/l), and were slightly elevated (P < 0.001 vs. baseline) with supplementation (Y: 96 +/- 5 micromol/l vs. O: 85 +/- 6). Neither ascorbic acid infusion nor supplementation affected peripheral BP, heart rate, carotid artery compliance, central BP, carotid AIx, or aortic PWV (all P > 0.26). These results indicate that the adverse changes in large elastic artery compliance and central BP with aging in healthy men are not 1). mediated by ascorbic acid-sensitive oxidative stress (infusion experiments) and 2). affected by short-term, moderate daily ascorbic acid (vitamin C) supplementation.     

Multiple SNP Markers Reveal Fine-Scale Population and Deep Phylogeographic Structure in European Anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L.)

Geographic surveys of allozymes, microsatellites, nuclear DNA (nDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) have detected several genetic subdivisions among European anchovy populations. However, these studies have been limited in their power to detect some aspects of population structure by the use of a single or a few molecular markers, or by limited geographic sampling. We use a multi-marker approach, 47 nDNA and 15 mtDNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), to analyze 626 European anchovies from the whole range of the species to resolve shallow and deep levels of population structure. Nuclear SNPs define 10 genetic entities within two larger genetically distinctive groups associated with oceanic variables and different life-history traits. MtDNA SNPs define two deep phylogroups that reflect ancient dispersals and colonizations. These markers define two ecological groups. One major group of Iberian-Atlantic populations is associated with upwelling areas on narrow continental shelves and includes populations spawning and overwintering in coastal areas. A second major group includes northern populations in the North East (NE) Atlantic (including the Bay of Biscay) and the Mediterranean and is associated with wide continental shelves with local larval retention currents. This group tends to spawn and overwinter in oceanic areas. These two groups encompass ten populations that differ from previously defined management stocks in the Alboran Sea, Iberian-Atlantic and Bay of Biscay regions. In addition, a new North Sea-English Channel stock is defined. SNPs indicate that some populations in the Bay of Biscay are genetically closer to North Western (NW) Mediterranean populations than to other populations in the NE Atlantic, likely due to colonizations of the Bay of Biscay and NW Mediterranean by migrants from a common ancestral population. Northern NE Atlantic populations were subsequently established by migrants from the Bay of Biscay. Populations along the Iberian-Atlantic coast appear to have been founded by secondary waves of migrants from a southern refuge.     

Detection of a Salmonella enterica Serovar California Strain Spreading in Spanish Feed Mills and Genetic Characterization with DNA Microarrays

We performed an epidemiological study on Salmonella isolated from raw plant-based feed in Spanish mills. Overall, 32 different Salmonella serovars were detected. Despite its rare occurrence in humans and animals, Salmonella enterica serovar California was found to be the predominant serovar in Spanish feed mills. Different typing techniques showed that isolates of this serovar were genetically closely related, and comparative genomic hybridization using microarray technology revealed 23 S. enterica serovar Typhimurium LT2 gene clusters that are absent from serovar California.     

Comparative Proteomics Identifies Host Immune System Proteins Affected by Infection with Mycobacterium bovis

Mycobacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) greatly impact human and animal health worldwide. The mycobacterial life cycle is complex, and the mechanisms resulting in pathogen infection and survival in host cells are not fully understood. Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) are natural reservoir hosts for MTBC and a model for mycobacterial infection and tuberculosis (TB). In the wild boar TB model, mycobacterial infection affects the expression of innate and adaptive immune response genes in mandibular lymph nodes and oropharyngeal tonsils, and biomarkers have been proposed as correlates with resistance to natural infection. However, the mechanisms used by mycobacteria to manipulate host immune response are not fully characterized. Our hypothesis is that the immune system proteins under-represented in infected animals, when compared to uninfected controls, are used by mycobacteria to guarantee pathogen infection and transmission. To address this hypothesis, a comparative proteomics approach was used to compare host response between uninfected (TB-) and M. bovis-infected young (TB+) and adult animals with different infection status [TB lesions localized in the head (TB+) or affecting multiple organs (TB++)]. The results identified host immune system proteins that play an important role in host response to mycobacteria. Calcium binding protein A9, Heme peroxidase, Lactotransferrin, Cathelicidin and Peptidoglycan-recognition protein were under-represented in TB+ animals when compared to uninfected TB- controls, but protein levels were higher as infection progressed in TB++ animals when compared to TB- and/or TB+ adult wild boar. MHCI was the only protein over-represented in TB+ adult wild boar when compared to uninfected TB- controls. The results reported here suggest that M. bovis manipulates host immune response by reducing the production of immune system proteins. However, as infection progresses, wild boar immune response recovers to limit pathogen multiplication and promote survival, facilitating pathogen transmission.     

Ascorbic acid increases cardiovagal baroreflex sensitivity in healthy older men

Cardiovagal baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) declines with advancing age in healthy men. We tested the hypothesis that oxidative stress contributes mechanistically to this age-associated reduction. Eight young (23 +/- 1 yrs, means +/- SE) and seven older (63 +/- 3) healthy men were studied. Cardiovagal BRS was assessed using the modified Oxford technique (bolus infusion of 50-100 microg sodium nitroprusside, followed 60 s later by a 100- to 150-microg bolus of phenylephrine hydrochloride) in triplicate at baseline and during acute intravenous ascorbic acid infusion. At baseline, cardiovagal BRS (slope of the linear portion of the R-R interval-systolic blood pressure relation during pharmacological changes in arterial blood pressure) was 56% lower (P < 0.01) in older (8.3 +/- 1.6 ms/mmHg) compared with young (19.0 +/- 3.1 ms/mmHg) men. Ascorbic acid infusion increased plasma concentrations similarly in young (62 +/- 9 vs. 1,249 +/- 72 micromol/l for baseline and during ascorbic acid; P < 0.05) and older men (62 +/- 4 vs. 1,022 +/- 55 micromol/l; P < 0.05) without affecting baseline blood pressure, heart rate, carotid artery compliance, or the magnitude of change in systolic blood pressure in response to bolus sodium nitroprusside and phenylephrine hydrochloride infusion. Ascorbic acid (vitamin C) infusion increased cardiovagal BRS in older (Delta58 +/- 16%; P < 0.01), but not younger (Delta - 4 +/- 4%) men. These data provide experimental support for the concept that oxidative stress contributes mechanistically to age-associated reductions in cardiovagal BRS in healthy men.