Potential impacts of climate change on geographical distribution of three primary vectors of African Trypanosomiasis in Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe: G. m. morsitans,G. pallidipes and G. swynnertoni

In the Maasai Steppe, public health and economy are threatened by African Trypanosomiasis, a debilitating and fatal disease to livestock (African Animal Trypanosomiasis -AAT) and humans (Human African Trypanosomiasis—HAT), if not treated. The tsetse fly is the primary vector for both HAT and AAT and climate is an important predictor of their occurrence and the parasites they carry. While understanding tsetse fly distribution is essential for informing vector and disease control strategies, existing distribution maps are old and were based on coarse spatial resolution data, consequently, inaccurately representing vector and disease dynamics necessary to design and implement fit-for-purpose mitigation strategies. Also, the assertion that climate change is altering tsetse fly distribution in Tanzania lacks empirical evidence. Despite tsetse flies posing public health risks and economic hardship, no study has modelled their distributions at a scale needed for local planning. This study used MaxEnt species distribution modelling (SDM) and ecological niche modeling tools to predict potential distribution of three tsetse fly species in Tanzania’s Maasai Steppe from current climate information, and project their distributions to midcentury climatic conditions under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenarios. Current climate results predicted that G. m. morsitans, G. pallidipes and G swynnertoni cover 19,225 km², 7,113 km² and 32,335 km² and future prediction indicated that by the year 2050, the habitable area may decrease by up to 23.13%, 12.9% and 22.8% of current habitable area, respectively. This information can serve as a useful predictor of potential HAT and AAT hotspots and inform surveillance strategies. Distribution maps generated by this study can be useful in guiding tsetse fly control managers, and health, livestock and wildlife officers when setting surveys and surveillance programs. The maps can also inform protected area managers of potential encroachment into the protected areas (PAs) due to shrinkage of tsetse fly habitats outside PAs.     

Pastoralists’ Vulnerability to Trypanosomiasis in Maasai Steppe

Trypanosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of both livestock and humans. Although pastoral communities of the Maasai Steppe have been able to adapt to trypanosomiasis in the past, their traditional strategies are now constrained by changes in climate and land regimes that affect their ability to move with their herds and continually shape the communities’ vulnerability to trypanosomiasis. Despite these constraints, information on communities’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity to trypanosomiasis is limited. A cross-sectional study was therefore conducted in Simanjiro and Monduli districts of the Maasai Steppe to establish pastoralists’ vulnerability to animal trypanosomiasis and factors that determined their adaptation strategies. A weighted overlay approach in ArcGIS 10.4 was used to analyze vulnerability levels while binomial and multinomial logistic regressions in R 3.3.2 were used to analyze the determinants of adaptation. Simanjiro district was the most vulnerable to trypanosomiasis. The majority (87.5%, n = 136) of the respondents were aware of trypanosomiasis in animals, but only 7.4% (n = 136) knew about the human form of the disease. Reported impacts of animal trypanosomiasis were low milk production (95.6%, n = 136), death of livestock (96.8%, n = 136) and emaciation of animals (99.9%, n = 136). Crop farming was the most frequently reported animal trypanosomiasis adaptation strategy (66%, n = 136). At a 95% confidence interval, accessibility to livestock extension services (β = 7.61, SE = 3.28, df = 135, P = 0.02), years of livestock keeping experience (β = 6.17, SE = 1.95, df = 135, P = 0.001), number of cattle owned (β = 5.85, SE = 2.70, df = 135, P = 0.03) and membership in associations (β = ? 4.11, SE = 1.79, df = 135, P = 0.02) had a significant impact on the probability of adapting to animal trypanosomiasis.     

Variation of tsetse fly abundance in relation to habitat and host presence in the Maasai Steppe,Tanzania

Human activities modify ecosystem structure and function and can also alter the vital rates of vectors and thus the risk of infection with vector‐borne diseases. In the Maasai Steppe ecosystem of northern Tanzania, local communities depend on livestock and suitable pasture that is shared with wildlife, which can increase tsetse abundance and the risk of trypanosomiasis. We monitored the monthly tsetse fly abundance adjacent to Tarangire National Park in 2014–2015 using geo‐referenced, baited epsilon traps. We examined the effect of habitat types and vegetation greenness (NDVI) on the relative abundance of tsetse fly species. Host availability (livestock and wildlife) was also recorded within 100×100 m of each trap site. The highest tsetse abundance was found in the ecotone between Acacia‐Commiphora woodland and grassland, and the lowest in riverine woodland. Glossina swynnertoni was the most abundant species (68%) trapped throughout the entire study, while G. pallidipes was the least common (4%). Relative species abundance was negatively associated with NDVI, with greatest abundance observed in the dry season. The relationship with the abundance of wildlife and livestock was more complex, as we found positive and negative associations depending on the host and fly species. While habitat is important for tsetse distribution, hosts also play a critical role in affecting fly abundance and, potentially, trypanosomiasis risk.     

Seasonal variation of tsetse fly species abundance and prevalence of trypanosomes in the Maasai Steppe,Tanzania

Tsetse flies, the vectors of trypanosomiasis, represent a threat to public health and economy in sub‐Saharan Africa. Despite these concerns, information on temporal and spatial dynamics of tsetse and trypanosomes remain limited and may be a reason that control strategies are less effective. The current study assessed the temporal variation of the relative abundance of tsetse fly species and trypanosome prevalence in relation to climate in the Maasai Steppe of Tanzania in 2014–2015. Tsetse flies were captured using odor‐baited Epsilon traps deployed in ten sites selected through random subsampling of the major vegetation types in the area. Fly species were identified morphologically and trypanosome species classified using PCR. The climate dataset was acquired from the African Flood and Drought Monitor repository. Three species of tsetse flies were identified: G. swynnertoni (70.8%), G. m. morsitans (23.4%), and G.pallidipes (5.8%). All species showed monthly changes in abundance with most of the flies collected in July. The relative abundance of G. m. morsitans and G. swynnertoni was negatively correlated with maximum and minimum temperature, respectively. Three trypanosome species were recorded: T. vivax (82.1%), T. brucei (8.93%), and T. congolense (3.57%). The peak of trypanosome infections in the flies was found in October and was three months after the tsetse abundance peak; prevalence was negatively correlated with tsetse abundance. A strong positive relationship was found between trypanosome prevalence and temperature. In conclusion, we find that trypanosome prevalence is dependent on fly availability, and temperature drives both tsetse fly relative abundance and trypanosome prevalence.