Ethnic and secular influences on the size and maturity of seven year old children living in Guatemala City

Three groups of children, those of European parentage, those of Guatemalan parentage, and those of mixed European-Guatemalan parentage were measured for height, weight, and skeletal maturity. The children were born between 1945 and 1965, they were all of high socioeconomic status, and they all attended the same private school in Guatemala City. At 7 years, the boys of the European group were significantly taller than boys of the Guatemalan group. European and mixed European-Guatemalan girls were significantly taller than Guatemalan girls. These results are maturity independent. The influence of skeletal age was removed statistically by analysis of covariance. Girls of the mixed group were significantly heavier than girls of European and Guatemalan groups. Mixed group girls also had more significantly advanced skeletal ages than European girls. When the patterns of size and maturity status are analyzed by sex, there is evidence for a relatively greater environmental influence on the boys and a relatively greater genetic influence on the girls. Dividing the data into two birth year cohorts, 1945 to 1955, and 1956 to 1965, does not provide evidence for secular trends in growth or maturation. These results are similar to those from studies in developed nations that report an end to the secular trend for the “well off” population of those countries.     

Assessing population parameters and trends of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis): An eight‐year mark‐recapture study

This study represents the first attempt to study the population dynamics of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis), by evaluating a set of demographic parameters. The population of the Caravelas River estuary, eastern Brazil, was systematically monitored through a long‐term mark‐recapture experiment (2002–2009). Abundance estimates revealed a small population (57–124 dolphins), comprised of resident dolphins and individuals that temporarily leave or pass through the study area. Temporary emigration from the estuary to adjacencies (γ″= 0.33 ± 0.07 SE) and return rate (1 ?γ′= 0 .67) were moderate and constant, indicating that some dolphins use larger areas. Survival rate (?= 0.88 ± 0.07 SE) and abundance were constant throughout the study period. Power analysis showed that the current monitoring effort has high probability of detecting abrupt population declines (1 ?β= 0.9). Although the monitoring is not yet sensitive to subtle population trends, sufficient time to identify them is feasible (additional 3 yr). Despite such apparent stability, this population, as many others, inhabits waters exposed to multiple human‐related threats. Open and closed population modeling applied to photo‐identification data provide a robust baseline for estimating several demographic parameters and can be applied to other populations to allow further comparisons. Such synergistic efforts will allow a reliable definition of conservation status of this species.     

Long-term trends in dissolved organic carbon concentration: a cautionary note

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays an important role in surface water chemistry and ecology and trends in DOC concentration have been also associated with shifts in terrestrial carbon pools. Numerous studies have reported long-term trends in DOC concentration; however, some studies consider changes in average measured DOC whereas other compute discharge weighted concentrations. Because of differences in reporting methods and variable record lengths it is difficult to compare results among studies and make regional generalizations. Furthermore, changes in stream discharge may impact long-term trends in DOC concentration and the potentially subtle effect of shifts in stream flow may be missed if only measured DOC concentrations are considered. In this study we compare trends in volume-weighted vs. average measured DOC concentration between 1980 and 2001 at seven headwater streams in south-central Ontario, Canada that vary in wetland coverage and DOC (22-year mean vol. wt.) from 3.4 to 10.6 mg l⁻¹. On average, annual measured DOC concentrations were 13–34% higher than volume-weighted values, but differences of up to 290% occurred in certain years. Estimates of DOC flux were correspondingly higher using measured concentration values. Both measured and volume-weighted DOC concentrations increased significantly between 1980 and 2001, but slopes were larger in measured data (0.04–0.35 mg l⁻¹ year⁻¹ compared with 0.05–0.15 mg l⁻¹ year⁻¹) and proportional increases at the most wetland-influenced sites ranged from 32 to 43% in volume-weighted DOC and from 52 to 75% in measured DOC. In contrast, DOC flux did not change with time when estimated using either method, because of the predominant influence of stream flow on DOC export. Our results indicate that changes in stream flow have an important impact on trends in DOC concentration, and extrapolation of trend results from one region to another should be made cautiously and consider methodological and reporting differences among sites.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

COMPARISON OF VERTICAL AERIAL PHOTOGRAPHIC AND GROUND CENSUSES OF STELLER SEA LIONS AT AÑO NUEVO ISLAND, JULY 1990-1993

Counts of Steller sea lion ( Eumetopias jubatus ) pups and non-pups (adults and juveniles) from aerial photographs of rookeries at Año Nuevo Island between 1990 and 1993 were significantly higher than those made on the ground. Based on regression of natural logs of photographic counts versus year, the number of pups declined at a rate of −0.099yr while non-pup numbers declined at −0.315/yr. Examination of ground count data for the same period revealed a significant decline in non-pups (−0.139/yr), but no trend was detected in the ground counts of pups. The regression coefficients from photographic and ground counts of non-pups did not differ significantly. Power analyses using the program TRENDS indicated that detectable rates of change in abundance from four annual surveys were much lower for counts of pups than counts of non-pups where sampling precision was based on fits to linear models.     

Debating the greening vs. browning of the North American boreal forest: differences between satellite datasets

A number of remote sensing studies have evaluated the temporal trends of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI or vegetation greenness) in the North American boreal forest during the last two decades, often getting quite different results. To examine the effect that the use of different datasets might be having on the estimated trends, we compared the temporal trends of recently burned and unburned sites of boreal forest in central Canada calculated from two datasets: the Global Inventory, Monitoring, and Modeling Studies (GIMMS), which is the most commonly used 8 km dataset, and a new 1 km dataset developed by the Canadian Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS). We compared the NDVI trends of both datasets along a fire severity gradient in order to evaluate the variance in regeneration rates. Temporal trends were calculated using the seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test, a rank‐based, nonparametric test, which is robust against seasonality, nonnormality, heteroscedasticity, missing values, and serial dependence. The results showed contrasting NDVI trends between the CCRS and the GIMMS datasets. The CCRS dataset showed NDVI increases in all recently burned sites and in 50% of the unburned sites. Surprisingly, the GIMMS dataset did not capture the NDVI recovery in most burned sites and even showed NDVI declines in some burned sites one decade after fire. Between 50% and 75% of GIMMS pixels showed NDVI decreases in the unburned forest compared with <1% of CCRS pixels. Being the most broadly used dataset for monitoring ecosystem and carbon balance changes, the bias towards negative trends in the GIMMS dataset in the North American boreal forest has broad implications for the evaluation of vegetation and carbon dynamics in this region and globally.     

Assessing lignocellulosic biomass production from crop residues in the European Union: Modelling,analysis of the current scenario and drivers of interannual variability

This study assesses crop residues in the EU from major crops using empirical models to predict crop residues from yield statistics; furthermore it analyses the inter‐annual variability of those estimates over the period 1998‐2015, identifying its main drivers across Europe. The models were constructed based on an exhaustive collection of experimental data from scientific papers for the crops: wheat, barley, rye, oats, triticale, rice, maize, sorghum, rapeseed, sunflower, soybean, potato and sugarbeet. We discuss the assumptions on the relationship between yield and the harvest index, adopted by previous studies, to interpret the experimental data, quantify the uncertainties of these models, and establish the premises to implement them at regional scale –i.e., NUTS level 3– within the EU. To cope this, we created a consolidated sub‐national statistical data along with an algorithm able to aggregate (figures are provided at country level) and disaggregate (production at 25 km grid is provided assupplementary material) estimates. The total lignocellulosic biomass production in the EU28 over the review period, according to our models, is 419 Mt, from which wheat is the major contributor (155 Mt). Our results show that maize and rapeseed are the two crops with the highest residue yield, respectively 8.9 and 8.6 t ha‐1. The spatial analysis revealed that these three crops, which, according to our results, are feedstocks highly suitable a priori for second generation biofuels in the EU and are unevenly distributed across Europe. Weather fluctuation was identified as the major driver in residue production from cereals, while, in the case of starch crops and oilseeds – which are predominant in northern Europe – corresponded to the marked production trend likely influenced by the agricultural policies and agro‐management over the review period. Our results, among others, could help to understand and quantify the ecological boundaries of the bioeconomy from agriculture.     

基于文献计量分析的区域生态安全研究热点与趋势

生态安全是生态学研究的热点议题,近年来国内外对生态安全领域相关研究力度不断增大。文章以WEB OF SCIENCE数据库和中国期刊全文数据库（CNKI）中期刊论文为数据源,从文献计量的角度,利用Excel统计论文年度发文量,通过Bibexcel得到高频词共词矩阵,导入Ucinet和Netdraw得出共现网络可视图,最后利用SPSS对关键词进行聚类分析,以探究区域生态安全研究热点和趋势。研究表明：（1）区域生态安全研究发文数量基本逐年递增,自2012年起进入快速增长阶段。（2）国内外区域生态安全的研究内容具有较大差异。国外更注重在气候变化背景下生态安全与可持续发展的关系研究;国内更加关注生态安全空间规划、生态文明建设等基本理论与生态安全实证检验。（3）共现网络可视中的关键词food safety、environment和climate change与生态安全、生态文明建设和生态保护红线一定程度上成为当前研究的热点。（4）国内外区域生态安全研究对象和研究尺度均存在较大的差异。国外主要以极端贫困国家和发展中国家为研究对象,研究尺度涉及地区、国家甚至全球;国内主要以区域为研究对象,研究尺度集中于中尺度。综上,目前区域生态安全研究的热点是区域生态安全评价及其影响因素、生态文明建设战略和可持续发展研究等,未来生态安全的研究趋势将集中于生态安全空间演变、国际与区际间安全关联和安全对策等。