ANNA – Artificial Neural Network model for predicting species abundance and succession of blue-green algae

Predictive potential of deductive and inductivephytoplankton models are compared regarding theirusefulness for forecasting and control of harmfulalgal blooms. While applications of deductive modelsstill seem to be restricted by lack of knowledge, ad hocinductive models sometimes prove to bestraightforward and useful. The inductive neuralnetwork model ANNA is documented by means of anapplication to Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. ANNA wasvalidated for five blue-green algae species wherepredictive accuracy has improved with increased eventand time resolution of training data. A scenarioanalysis on species succession has demonstrated thepotential of ANNA for hypothesis testing. Finally,implications for use of ANNA for operational algalbloom control are discussed.     

Environmental analysis of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior

This study analyzed the environmental impacts of packaging‐derived changes in food production and consumer behavior to assist packaging designers in making environmentally conscious decisions. Packaging can be functionalized to prevent food loss and waste (FLW), for example, extending the expiration date and apportioning the package size, but it can generate additional environmental impacts from changes in food and packaging production. Previous studies assessed additional impacts from packaging production; however, the effects of packaging functionalization are yet to be connected with food production and consumer behavior. To examine the effect of functionalization on these aspects, we analyzed packaging‐derived changes in food production for milk and cabbage products. The case study compared products with functionalized packaging that permits a longer expiration date or a smaller portion size to their base‐case products. Our results showed that the packaging‐derived changes increased the global warming potential (GWP) of food production more than other processes did. Thus, changes in food production weakened the effectiveness of the packaging functionalization to decrease the GWP. Moreover, the analysis of consumer behavior scenarios showed that consumers’ perception of the expiration date decisively influences the effectiveness of packaging functionalization. When consumers discarded food after the expiration date, provided they consumed in small quantities, the packaging functionalization reduced FLW. From the scenario analysis, we identified appropriate combinations of packaging functionalization and consumer behaviors to effectively decrease total GWP. With our expanded analysis, packaging designers can understand the effectiveness of their decisions on the product life cycle in reducing FLW and environmental impacts.     

情景模拟在“医学微生物学”翻转课堂教学中的应用

翻转课堂是实现以学生为中心、提升学生自主学习能力的重要教学方法。随着线上课程的开展和学习平台技术的成熟,学生已能在课前获得足够的资源。然而,习惯于灌输式教育的学生仍缺乏自主学习的动力和方法。为此,我们教研团队尝试采用情景模拟的课堂活动设计来突破翻转环节实施的难点。研究发现,参考临床案例撰写剧本的过程能有效提升学生的自学兴趣和能力。学生课前在线预习时长和章节访问次数,以及参考资料阅读率和小组讨论时长均显著增加。课堂上,学生将课前所学知识在模拟实践中进行练习,促进了师生互动,帮助学生加深对知识的理解,提升学习成绩和满意度,同时也培养了学生的团队合作精神,建立临床思维,提升职业兴趣和能力。因此,情景模拟的融入实现了翻转课堂教学中“课前学”和“课上习”的教学闭环,为进一步推进翻转课堂的开展提供参考。     

Predicted avian responses to bioenergy development scenarios in an intensive agricultural landscape

Conversion of native prairie to agriculture has increased food and bioenergy production but decreased wildlife habitat. However, enrollment of highly erodible cropland in conservation programs has compensated for some grassland loss. In the future, climate change and production of second-generation perennial biofuel crops could further transform agricultural landscapes and increase or decrease grassland area. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is an alternative biofuel feedstock that may be economically and environmentally superior to maize (Zea mays) grain for ethanol production on marginally productive lands. Switchgrass could benefit farmers economically and increase grassland area, but there is uncertainty as to how conversions between rowcrops, switchgrass monocultures and conservation grasslands might occur and affect wildlife. To explore potential impacts on grassland birds, we developed four agricultural land-use change scenarios for an intensively cultivated landscape, each driven by potential future climatic changes and ensuing irrigation limitations, ethanol demand, commodity prices, and continuation of a conservation program. For each scenario, we calculated changes in area for landcover classes and predicted changes in grassland bird abundances. Overall, birds responded positively to the replacement of rowcrops with switchgrass and negatively to the conversion of conservation grasslands to switchgrass or rowcrops. Landscape context and interactions between climate, crop water use, and irrigation availability could influence future land-use, and subsequently, avian habitat quality and quantity. Switchgrass is likely to provide higher quality avian habitat than rowcrops but lower quality habitat than conservation grasslands, and therefore, may most benefit birds in heavily cultivated, irrigation dependent landscapes under warmer and drier conditions, where economic profitability may also encourage conversions to drought tolerant bioenergy feedstocks.     

Priority threat management of invasive animals to protect biodiversity under climate change

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, and its impacts can act synergistically to heighten the severity of other threats. Most research on projecting species range shifts under climate change has not been translated to informing priority management strategies on the ground. We develop a prioritization framework to assess strategies for managing threats to biodiversity under climate change and apply it to the management of invasive animal species across one‐sixth of the Australian continent, the Lake Eyre Basin. We collected information from key stakeholders and experts on the impacts of invasive animals on 148 of the region's most threatened species and 11 potential strategies. Assisted by models of current distributions of threatened species and their projected distributions, experts estimated the cost, feasibility, and potential benefits of each strategy for improving the persistence of threatened species with and without climate change. We discover that the relative cost‐effectiveness of invasive animal control strategies is robust to climate change, with the management of feral pigs being the highest priority for conserving threatened species overall. Complementary sets of strategies to protect as many threatened species as possible under limited budgets change when climate change is considered, with additional strategies required to avoid impending extinctions from the region. Overall, we find that the ranking of strategies by cost‐effectiveness was relatively unaffected by including climate change into decision‐making, even though the benefits of the strategies were lower. Future climate conditions and impacts on range shifts become most important to consider when designing comprehensive management plans for the control of invasive animals under limited budgets to maximize the number of threatened species that can be protected.     

临床医生在基因检测咨询中面对伦理两难问题态度与选择 ——基于情景案例分析

目的 通过情景案例分析,聚焦基因检测咨询中的伦理两难事件,探究临床医生的伦理道德抉择及可能的影响因素。 方法 采用分层随机抽样方法,对624名临床医生进行了匿名问卷调查。 结果 对于XY染色体女性案件,88%的应答者选择告知敏感性信息;对于父系信息的披露,近60%的应答者选择单独告诉母亲;对于是否告知患儿其他亲属相关遗传病信息的案件,应答者的意见则相对分散。 结论 针对三个典型的基因检测咨询中的伦理两难问题,应结合国际相关指南的要求,进一步加大相关的法律与伦理理念、知识的教育与普及。     

欧美杨对PM_(2.5)中重金属铅的吸附、吸收及适应性变化

针对PM2.5中重金属铅污染的日益加重问题,本文利用气溶胶发生系统模拟PM2.5含铅颗粒的发生,研究欧美杨107(Populus euramericana‘Neva’)叶片在不同浓度含铅颗粒物污染处理下对铅的吸附、吸收和转运,以及叶片气孔和相应生理指标的变化。结果表明:欧美杨叶片表面能够吸附含铅颗粒物,重度污染处理的叶片吸附的颗粒物数量多于轻度污染处理。2种铅污染浓度处理的欧美杨均是叶片中的铅含量最高,茎和根中的铅含量较少。但不同污染处理下叶中的铅向茎和根中的运输存在差异。轻度污染处理第3天时,叶中的铅仅运输至茎部,到第7天时运输至根,而在重度污染处理的第3天,叶中的铅已运输至根部。超微结构观察显示,叶片表皮细胞中的铅仅在细胞壁中出现,通过质外体向内运输至叶肉细胞,而叶肉细胞中的铅主要分布在细胞壁和细胞质,液泡中有少量分布。2种污染浓度处理后,随处理时间的延长,欧美杨叶片气孔的开度变小,叶片中的丙二醛(MDA)和脯氨酸(Pro)含量逐渐升高以及超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活性逐渐增强。研究表明,欧美杨叶片具有吸附、吸收PM2.5中铅的能力,同时通过降低气孔开度、渗透调节、提高抗氧化能力等生理过程来应对大气中的铅污染。     

Occupancy versus colonization–extinction models for projecting population trends at different spatial scales

Understanding spatiotemporal population trends and their drivers is a key aim in population ecology. We further need to be able to predict how the dynamics and sizes of populations are affected in the long term by changing landscapes and climate. However, predictions of future population trends are sensitive to a range of modeling assumptions. Deadwood‐dependent fungi are an excellent system for testing the performance of different predictive models of sessile species as these species have different rarity and spatial population dynamics, the populations are structured at different spatial scales, and they utilize distinct substrates. We tested how the projected large‐scale occupancies of species with differing landscape‐scale occupancies are affected over the coming century by different modeling assumptions. We compared projections based on occupancy models against colonization–extinction models, conducting the modeling at alternative spatial scales and using fine‐ or coarse‐resolution deadwood data. We also tested effects of key explanatory variables on species occurrence and colonization–extinction dynamics. The hierarchical Bayesian models applied were fitted to an extensive repeated survey of deadwood and fungi at 174 patches. We projected higher occurrence probabilities and more positive trends using the occupancy models compared to the colonization–extinction models, with greater difference for the species with lower occupancy, colonization rate, and colonization:extinction ratio than for the species with higher estimates of these statistics. The magnitude of future increase in occupancy depended strongly on the spatial modeling scale and resource resolution. We encourage using colonization–extinction models over occupancy models, modeling the process at the finest resource‐unit resolution that is utilizable by the species, and conducting projections for the same spatial scale and resource resolution at which the model fitting is conducted. Further, the models applied should include key variables driving the metapopulation dynamics, such as the availability of suitable resource units, habitat quality, and spatial connectivity.