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Rapid prioritization of alien plants for eradication based on climatic suitability and eradication feasibility 下载免费PDF全文
Identifying which introduced species have the greatest potential for establishment, spread and impact is critical for prioritizing pre‐ and post‐border control. Using species distribution modelling and existing species locations we assessed the establishment risk based on the climatic suitability areas of 25 plant species listed as eradication targets under South African regulations. To improve confidence, three bioclimatic models were used to predict the potential distribution of each species. This information was combined with the number of localities and the “eradication feasibility syndromes” in a scoring‐categorical system to rank the species. Three management groups were identified. Group “A” includes species with medium‐high establishment risk and higher likelihood to be eradicated, these species should be a priority for eradication. Group “B” includes species with a medium‐low establishment risk but given the low number of known population and the species characteristics, eradication is likely to be feasible. Finally species in group “C” scored a medium‐high establishment risk but the eradication would be difficult due to the high number of known localities. This ranking provides a rapid method to prioritize the management towards the eradication of new potential invasive plant species in the country combining the establishment risk, known number of localities and the inferred eradication success. 相似文献
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目的:研究心脏康复运动对冠脉支架植入术后患者血脂、血糖、体重指数及生活质量的影响。方法:对实施冠脉支架植入术的
146例患者进行比较分析,根据随机原则分为试验组76 例及对照组70 例。对照组患者给予常规的健康教育及冠心病二级预防指
导,给予定期随访。试验组患者在此基础上给予规律的康复运动指导。经过6 个月随访,比较两组患者血脂、HbA1C、体重指数及
生活质量情况。结果:试验组患者通过为期6 个月的规律的心脏康复运动指导,其血脂、HbA1C等冠心病危险因素控制情况优于
对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。同时,6个月后,试验组康复运动六月后sF 量表各项评分与对照组同期比较,差异均有统计
学意义(P<0.05)。结论:规范的心脏康复运动指导能够有效改善冠脉支架植入术后患者血脂、血糖情况,提高患者生活质量。 相似文献
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“Beyond GDP” initiatives flag the limits of the quantitative indicators of progress currently used for governance. Focusing on the quality assessment of quantitative information used for governance, we use some of the conceptual tools of theoretical ecology and evolutionary biology in order to identify the pre-analytical choices that determine the usefulness and pertinence of a model. Starting from the definition of a model as a formal representation of a specific and necessarily subjective observation, we show that the production of indicators is the final result of a series of decisions on what to observe and how. These choices, in turn, depend on the narrative, or set of narratives, adopted. Narratives provide causality and context to knowledge claims and are needed to select the indicators to be used for policy. Moving beyond the GDP debate requires reflexivity, that is, awareness of the key role that pre-analytical choices play in the definition of both the relevance of the chosen perceptions and narratives (determined by the normative stands of different actors – who defines wellbeing?), and the usefulness of the chosen models and data (determined by the pertinence of the resulting representation – how to measure wellbeing?). Reflexivity is essential in order to take into account the purposes for which different indicators were created and to define new purposes for the “beyond GDP” indicators. 相似文献
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Angelica Mendoza Beltran Brian Cox Chris Mutel Detlef P. van Vuuren David Font Vivanco Sebastiaan Deetman Oreane Y. Edelenbosch Jeroen Guinée Arnold Tukker 《Journal of Industrial Ecology》2020,24(1):64-79
Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies. 相似文献
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Dissecting a biodiversity hotspot: The importance of environmentally marginal habitats in the Atlantic Forest Domain of South America 下载免费PDF全文
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Shuanxi Fan 《人类与生态风险评估》2017,23(5):1099-1120
Soil heavy metal pollution from mining activities is potentially harmful to human health through the food chain. In this study, a total of 43 soil samples were collected from a depth of 0–20 cm from fields close to a Pb and Zn smelter. The samples were used to: 1) analyze the pollution level of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu) and spatial distribution pattern; 2) evaluate the degree of accumulation and enrichment, potential ecological risk, and human health risk; and 3) perform source apportionment in Fengxiang County, Shaanxi Province of China. The results showed that the concentration ranged from 43.67 to 189.55, 131.43 to 239.53, 74.77 to 112.25, and 24.69 to 37.71 mg·kg?1 for Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu, respectively, and the mean concentration for Pb, Zn, Cr, and Cu was 129.46, 192.85, 91.98 and 31.67 mg·kg?1, respectively. The concentrations were greater than the Shaanxi Province background values, while they were lower than the second-level limits of Environmental Quality Standard for Soils of China (EQSS). The spatial distribution of heavy metal contents showed a banded in soil except Cu. The spatial distribution pattern and pollution assessment indexes (Igeo, EF) indicated that the investigated metals had been accumulated in the study areas, and implied significant influences from anthropogenic activities, local meteorological situation, and soil properties. The ecological risk assessment showed that the risks were relatively low (RI<150). Compared with the exposure risk for adults, that for children was significantly greater. The ingestion of heavy metals in the soils by humans was the main exposure pathway compared with the dermal exposure. There may be a risk of noncarcinogenic adverse health effects (HQ < 1, 0.377 ≤ HI≤1.553) on children, but the adults were unlikely to experience obvious adverse health effects (HQ < 1, HI < 1). The carcinogenic risk of Cr for adults and children was at an unacceptable level. The carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks were in the order of children > adults. The correlation analysis showed that Pb, Cr, and Cu have identical anthropogenic and natural sources, while Zn has another identical source. This study could provide a basis for the sustainable management of this region by reducing metal inputs and to protect soils from long-term heavy metal accumulation. 相似文献
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A competing risk model, accommodating both Type I censoring and random withdrawals, is expanded to incorporate concomitant information by allowing the parameters of the underlying distributions to be a linear function of two covariates. The model is developed for two competing risks, one following a Weibull distribution and the other a Rayleigh distribution, and random withdrawals following a Weibull distribution. A method is developed for testing the equality of the coefficients for a given covariate for each of the competing risks using MLE'. 相似文献
10.
To investigate heavy metal accumulation in soils and evaluate health risk through maize consumption, a total of 196 soils and 55 maize samples were collected from Yushu, China, one of the most important maize production bases. The mean contents of Cd, Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb were 0.119, 56.51, 19.21, 70.58, and 34.42 mg kg?1 for soils and were 0.014, 0.68, 1.33, 17.15 and 0.02 mg kg?1 for maize, respectively. The contents of Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb in all soil and maize samples did not exceed safety thresholds, but the percentages of Cd content above guideline values of Chinese Environmental Quality Standards for Soil and maximum permissible limits for maize were 6.6% and 1.8%, respectively. The spatial distribution and correlation analysis suggested that Cr and Cu in soil were of lithogenic origin, while Zn and Pb were associated with coal combustion exhausts and chemical fertilizer application. The main source of Cd may be phosphate fertilizer application. The average target hazard quotients were all less than 1 and the average hazard index for adults was 0.065, indicating that there was not a potential health risk through maize. 相似文献