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1.
目的:研究张家口市大气颗粒物对慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)的影响,并分析大气颗粒物对不同特征人群的影响。方法:从张家口市医保办公室获取张家口市2013年1月1日-2015年12月31日两家三甲医院COPD患者的住院病历资料,从中国环境监测总站网站获取大气污染物的监测数据,从张家口市气象局获取气象资料。建立广义相加模型(GAM),在控制长期趋势、星期几效应和温湿度影响后,应用条件Logitic回归方法评估PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对COPD住院人次的影响。根据患者不同特征(性别、年龄、季节)进行分层分析,评估颗粒物污染的高危人群。结果:研究纳入两家三甲医院,共1984例住院COPD患者,其中男性患者1258例(63.4%)、女性患者726例(36.6%),≥75岁患者678例(34.2%),60~75岁患者936例(47.2%)、芨60岁患者370例(18.6%)。2013-2015年PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)年均浓度分别为[(36.54±20.34)μg/m~3、(84.37±52.54)μg/m~3],[(34.50±27.08)μg/m~3、(78.43±69.78)μg/m~3],[(32.04±21.35)μg/m~3、(75.46±50.02)μg/m~3],两者在移动平均滞后3d时,对COPD的影响最大,即PM_(2.5)每增加10μg/m~3,COPD住院人次增加1.90%(95%CI:1.002-1.033,P0.05),PM_(10)每增加10μg/m~3,COPD住院人次增加2.10%(95%CI:1.005-1.045,P0.05)。分层分析结果显示:PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)每升高10μg/m~3,女性COPD患者住院人次增加1.09%、1.14%,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05);≥75岁患者,COPD住院人次增加1.03%、0.99%,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05);而年龄芨60岁、60~75岁、男性以及季节分层分析中,PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)浓度与COPD住院人次无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:颗粒物污染会增加COPD住院率,≥75岁的老年患者及女性患者更敏感。  相似文献   
2.
3.

Background and Aims

The structure of a forest stand, i.e. the distribution of tree size features, has strong effects on its functioning. The management of the structure is therefore an important tool in mitigating the impact of predicted changes in climate on forests, especially with respect to drought. Here, a new functional–structural model is presented and is used to assess the effects of management on forest functioning at a national scale.

Methods

The stand process-based model (PBM) Castanea was coupled to a stand structure module (SSM) based on empirical tree-to-tree competition rules. The calibration of the SSM was based on a thorough analysis of intersite and interannual variability of competition asymmetry. The coupled Castanea–SSM model was evaluated across France using forest inventory data, and used to compare the effect of contrasted silvicultural practices on simulated stand carbon fluxes and growth.

Key Results

The asymmetry of competition varied consistently with stand productivity at both spatial and temporal scales. The modelling of the competition rules enabled efficient prediction of changes in stand structure within the Castanea PBM. The coupled model predicted an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) with management intensity, resulting in higher growth. This positive effect of management was found to vary at a national scale across France: the highest increases in NPP were attained in forests facing moderate to high water stress; however, the absolute effect of management on simulated stand growth remained moderate to low because stand thinning involved changes in carbon allocation at the tree scale.

Conclusions

This modelling approach helps to identify the areas where management efforts should be concentrated in order to mitigate near-future drought impact on national forest productivity. Around a quarter of the French temperate oak and beech forests are currently in zones of high vulnerability, where management could thus mitigate the influence of climate change on forest yield  相似文献   
4.
Climate change is expected to alter precipitation patterns worldwide, which will affect streamflow in riverine ecosystems. It is vital to understand the impacts of projected flow variations, especially in tropical regions where the effects of climate change are expected to be one of the earliest to emerge. Space‐for‐time substitutions have been successful at predicting effects of climate change in terrestrial systems by using a spatial gradient to mimic the projected temporal change. However, concerns have been raised that the spatial variability in these models might not reflect the temporal variability. We utilized a well‐constrained rainfall gradient on Hawaii Island to determine (a) how predicted decreases in flow and increases in flow variability affect stream food resources and consumers and (b) if using a high temporal (monthly, four streams) or a high spatial (annual, eight streams) resolution sampling scheme would alter the results of a space‐for‐time substitution. Declines in benthic and suspended resource quantity (10‐ to 40‐fold) and quality (shift from macrophyte to leaf litter dominated) contributed to 35‐fold decreases in macroinvertebrate biomass with predicted changes in the magnitude and variability in the flow. Invertebrate composition switched from caddisflies and damselflies to taxa with faster turnover rates (mosquitoes, copepods). Changes in resource and consumer composition patterns were stronger with high temporal resolution sampling. However, trends and ranges of results did not differ between the two sampling regimes, indicating that a suitable, well‐constrained spatial gradient is an appropriate tool for examining temporal change. Our study is the first to investigate resource to community wide effects of climate change on tropical streams on a spatial and temporal scale. We determined that predicted flow alterations would decrease stream resource and consumer quantity and quality, which can alter stream function, as well as biomass and habitat for freshwater, marine, and terrestrial consumers dependent on these resources.  相似文献   
5.
张建甫  刘元硕  赵梁军 《生态学报》2009,29(8):4380-4385
观察了3种悬铃木聚合果的形态、坚果形态、聚合果上坚果数量、坚果上果皮毛数量、聚合果总果皮毛数量,比较了3种悬铃木聚合果的形态学差异,发现二球悬铃木的聚合果最大,聚合果上的坚果数量与坚果的果皮毛数量最多;采用石蜡切片染色观察和NaOH处理证明悬铃木果皮毛主要有果胶质、纤维素和木质素3种主要成分;通过用不同浓度粒级符合PM10大小的果皮毛对小白鼠进行支气管染毒试验,证明染毒后小鼠肺泡灌洗液中磷酸还原酶(ACP)含量升高,显示肺细胞受损;GSH-Px含量下降,显示小鼠肺部氧化和抗氧化系统失衡.试验结果证明,悬铃木果皮毛破碎后所形成的可吸入颗粒物PM10对小鼠的呼吸道具有致炎作用.  相似文献   
6.
不同水分下准噶尔无叶豆分株种群特征和生物量分配差异   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
王建成  施翔  张道远  尹林克 《生态学报》2009,29(12):6475-6481
准噶尔无叶豆是豆科无叶豆属小半灌木,在中国仅片断化分布于新疆古尔班通古特沙漠局部区域.该种自然种群种子萌发率极低(<3%),主要靠克隆繁殖维持种群.为研究克隆生长在异质性生境中的可塑性特征及其生态适应意义,对生境土壤含水量存在差异的两个准噶尔无叶豆自然种群(河边种群,沙漠种群)的分株种群特征、生物量及其分配比重进行了比较,研究发现:①在分株种群特征上,河边种群的分株显著高于沙漠种群,分株间距也显著大于沙漠种群.沙漠种群分株密度和根的密度显著大于河边种群,但每一分株拥有根的概率显著小于河边种群;②在生物量分配方面,河边种群具有比沙漠种群大的根生物量,但根茎生物量则要显著的小于沙漠种群;③在植株各部分生物量比重随植株大小的变化趋势上,河边种群各部分的比重随植株大小变化的趋势平缓,而沙漠种群各部分的比重变化趋势则较为急剧,表明河边准噶尔无叶豆分株种群随着植株的大小变化,资源分配比例并没有发生很明显的变化,而沙漠种群变化较大.结果表明,准噶尔无叶豆种群对所处生境水分条件存在可塑性响应,并通过分株种群特征变化和生物量分配差异应对水分条件的变化,形成自身的适应对策.  相似文献   
7.
基于光温的温室多杆切花菊干物质生产与分配的预测模型   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
根据菊花生长对光温的反应,设计不同品种、不同单株主杆数、不同定植密度和不同定植日期的试验,构建了以生理辐热积(Physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR,PTEP)为尺度的温室多杆切花菊的干物质生产与分配预测模型,并用与建模相独立的试验数据对模型进行了检验.结果表明:随单位面积杆数增加,切花菊的单位面积地上干物质产量增加,单枝切花鲜重减少.所建模型对温室多杆切花菊的单株叶干重、茎干重、花干重和地上部分鲜重的预测值与实际观测值基于1:1线的决定系数(R2)分别为:0.96、 0.95、0.82和0.97,回归估计标准误(RMSE)分别为:0.863、1.005、0.201和10.190g ·株-1.模型模拟精度较高,可为温室切花菊栽培密度和保留杆数的优化调控提供理论依据.  相似文献   
8.
Although an understanding of the quantity and quality of sedimentary organic matter (SOM) pools is necessary to design sound environmental management strategies for lacustrine systems, the characterization of organic matter sources and the assessment of their relative contributions to eutrophic and inland lake sediments remain insufficient. In this study, the contribution of potential organic matter sources to sediments in shallow and hypereutrophic lake Taihu, China was assessed on the molecular level using source-specific fatty acid biomarkers. The results indicated that SOM was composed mainly of terrestrial plants with a maximal contribution of 45.3 ± 2.4% to the total organic carbon, which accounted for approximately 66% among the determined organic matter sources. Evidence suggests the terrestrial plants remained in a fresh state in surface sediments: the correlation (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.05) between bacterial and terrestrial plant carbon was strong. On the other hand, aquatic plant and bacterial carbon contributed 5–15% to the total organic carbon, which was followed by the faint contribution (<5% of total organic carbon) of algae-derived organic carbon including cyanobacteria, diatoms, and dinoflagellates. The results provided details of the contributions of SOM sources, illustrating the usefulness of fatty acid biomarkers in discriminating organic matter sources within lake environments. Although organic matter sources of sediments varied in spatial and temporal patterns, the strong correlation between terrestrial plant and total organic carbon (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.05) indicates that terrestrial plants were the dominant source in lake sediments.  相似文献   
9.
目的:研究弥散张量成像(DTI)对脑室周围白质软化(PVL)患儿选择性脊神经后根切除术(SPR)后脑白质恢复的评估价值。方法:选取从2014年1月至2015年8月在新疆医科大学二附院脑瘫中心择期行SPR手术治疗的PVL患儿40例作为观察组,另选同期磁共振成像(MRI)检查正常儿童40例作为对照组,两组分别在手术前后进行DTI检查,比较两组不同部位的部分各向异性值(FA)及表观弥散系数(ADC)。结果:术前观察组不同部位的FA值均显著低于对照组,胼胝体压部的ADC值显著高于对照组,差异均有统计学意义(P0.05)。与术前比较,术后观察组不同部位的FA值均上升,胼胝体压部的ADC值下降,差异均有统计学意义(P0.05),且与对照组之间的差异无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:SPR术能够明显控制PVL患儿的病情,且采用DTI成像技术能够客观地反应PVL患儿SPR术后脑白质恢复情况,对辅助临床治疗和预后评估具有重要作用。  相似文献   
10.
F. Cuq 《Hydrobiologia》1993,258(1-3):33-40
The analysis of a series of NOAA AVHRR satellite data recorded between July and September 1986 shows the interaction between northerly and southerly water masses during summer as well as the northern limit of the northward advance of water masses originating from the South Equatorial Current. Two upwelling situations analysed by means of NOAA data show the intrusion of suspended matter from the ocean into the Golfe d'Arguin and illustrate the water circulation within the coastal zone. This circulation pattern is detailed by LANDSAT and SPOT data. A SPOT picture from October 1987 shows the structure of the intertidal and coastal geomorphology.  相似文献   
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