Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part II: Are operational oceanographic models useful in a HAB warning system

This study investigated the application of a three-dimensional physical hydrodynamic model in a harmful algal bloom forecast system for Bantry Bay, southwest Ireland. Modelled oceanographic conditions were studied and used to help understand observed changes in the chemical and biological patterns from the national biotoxins and phytoplankton monitoring program. The study focused on two toxic events in 2013. An upwelling event was predicted by the model prior to the appearance and population increase of potentially toxic diatoms, Pseudo-nitzschia, and associated domoic acid in shellfish. A downwelling episode was provided as a forecast in the model prior to the arrival of a Dinophysis bloom and detection of its associated biotoxins in Bay shellfish. The modelled forecast products developed included expected surface, mid-depth and bottom current pathways at the mouth of the Bay and on the adjacent shelf. The rate and direction of water volume flow at the mouth and mid-bay sections were produced by the model to examine predicted upwelling and downwelling pulses. The model also calculated the evolution of water properties (temperature, salinity and density) with depth along the Bay axis and on the adjacent continental shelf. Direct measurements of water properties at a fixed point, mid-bay, were comparable to model calculations. The operational model for southwest Ireland produces a reliable 3-day physical hydrodynamic forecast of the dominant regional physical processes that result in water exchange events between Bantry Bay and its adjacent shelf. While simulated physical hydrodynamics were provided as a 3-day forecast, the upwelling and downwelling signals from the model, closely linked to toxic HAB episodes, were evident up to 10 days prior to the contamination of shellfish in the Bay.     

医院客户关系管理与经营服务平台的构建

在当前面对医疗市场激烈的竞争现状，医院如何立于不败之地，如何使医院建设保持一个良性发展势态，是医院管理者面临的严峻课题。各级医院应主动适应市场变化，大力推行市场营销，促进医院的建设与发展。讨论医院怎样运用现代营销理论来构建面向市场、符合医院行业特点的医院营销体系。     

Some meteorological conditions associated with forest fires in Galicia (Spain)

The present paper offers data on the effect of certain meteorological parameters on the outbreak of forest fires in Galicia (Spain). In a day-to-day analysis, the values of the stability of the air column and the saturation deficit at the lower levels are related to the number of fires occurring in the following 24 h.     

Decadal plant composition changes in grazed native grassland

Most high value grasslands of south‐eastern Australia are restricted to small fragmented areas of public land. However, a significant proportion of native grassland is privately owned, managed with grazing rather than fire and is rarely monitored. Hence, a better understanding of grassland management and conservation on the private estate is required. Eco‐markets are policy instruments that incentivise private landholders to effectively manage and conserve native vegetation. However, short funding cycles restrict the capacity of monitoring programs to assess long‐term vegetation changes. In this study, 17 native grassland remnants on private land managed with livestock grazing were monitored before and during a 4‐year eco‐market and 6 years after it ended to determine how composition had changed over 10 years of monitoring. Numerous grassland attributes were either maintained or improved over the 10‐year period, which coincided with one of the most severe and long‐lasting droughts in recent history (i.e. the Millennium drought). In addition, several threatened species were identified as part of the program. A decline in exotic forb richness, native grass cover and native forb richness suggests there is also some impact of the Millennium drought on plant mortality as evidenced by altered litter dynamics. Inherent variability year‐to‐year for most measures of grassland attributes over the monitoring period indicates that climatic conditions have a strong influence on grassland dynamics. Our ability to determine the driver(s) of grassland composition was limited by monitoring program design. Future eco‐market monitoring programs should have adequate resources allocated to enable effective monitoring designs, that incorporate reference information and control sites, and should aim to be long‐term (i.e. >10 years). This will provide clearer insights into the drivers of grassland dynamics and allow for refinement of management options for conservation of this threatened community.     

2015 年度中国医药市场发展蓝皮书 ——公立医院终端市场部分 （ Ⅱ ）

介绍了我国的卫生机构状况、药品市场终端规模,以及我国公立医院终端化学药和中成药各大类药品市场份额状况,并分别对 我国公立医院终端化学药和中成药各大类重点品种的销售额 Top10 进行了分析。     

本溪关门山国家森林公园游客行为特征

研究游客行为特征对于旅游资源的开发、管理以及旅游目的地的可持续发展具有重要的作用。以本溪关门山国家森林公园为研究对象,通过问卷调查的方法对游客的人口统计学特征、地域结构特征、一般行为特征、消费特征及感知特征进行了研究。结果表明:关门山国家森林公园的游客以较高学历的男性中青年为主;客源主要来自本省辽宁,并以沈阳、本溪和大连的游客为主,客源地理集中度指数为35.71;旅游的主要目的是观赏枫叶,出游时间大部分集中在每年"十一"黄金周期间,且半数以上为当日往返的短程游览者;游客偏好与家人一起出游的旅行方式,所选择的交通工具主要为自驾车和旅游专车;游客的消费结构不平衡,主要集中于景区门票和交通费,占总消费的56.7%;游客对景区的喜好度依次为龙门峡景区月台子景区小黄山景区夹砬子景区鸣翠谷景区。总的来说,游客满意度较高,有89.1%的游客愿意重游此地,游客最不满意的地方主要表现在景区卫生方面。基于调查研究结果,对关门山国家森林公园的开发建设和可持续发展提供了相关建议。     

Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.     

When cooperation begets cooperation: the role of key individuals in galvanizing support

Life abounds with examples of conspecifics actively cooperating to a common end, despite conflicts of interest being expected concerning how much each individual should contribute. Mathematical models typically find that such conflict can be resolved by partial-response strategies, leading investors to contribute relatively equitably. Using a case study approach, we show that such model expectations can be contradicted in at least four disparate contexts: (i) bi-parental care; (ii) cooperative breeding; (iii) cooperative hunting; and (iv) human cooperation. We highlight that: (a) marked variation in contributions is commonplace; and (b) individuals can often respond positively rather than negatively to the contributions of others. Existing models have surprisingly limited power in explaining these phenomena. Here, we propose that, although among-individual variation in cooperative contributions will be influenced by differential costs and benefits, there is likely to be a strong genetic or epigenetic component. We then suggest that selection can maintain high investors (key individuals) when their contributions promote support by increasing the benefits and/or reducing the costs for others. Our intentions are to raise awareness in—and provide testable hypotheses of—two of the most poorly understood, yet integral, questions regarding cooperative ventures: why do individuals vary in their contributions and when does cooperation beget cooperation?     

祁连山典型林区生态服务功能间接价值估算

采用常规和替代市场评估技术,对祁连山北坡东段哈溪林区有机质生产、水源涵养、水土保持、固定CO2和净化空气5种生态系统服务功能间接价值进行了估算,并对3种不同植被类型的生态服务功能价值进行了比较。结果表明,哈溪林区5种服务功能总价值为52061.00万元,其中森林、灌丛和草地分别为19510.34万元、25200.01万元和7350.65万元。按有林地面积推算,祁连山森林生态系统提供的服务功能间接经济价值是天祝县国民生产总值的3～5倍,森林生态系统所提供的生态服务功能价值远远超过了当地社会创造的经济价值。就水源涵养和水土保持服务功能而言,灌丛提供的总价值最大。