A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Negative density-dependent emigration of males in an increasing red deer population

In species with polygynous mating systems, females are regarded as food-limited, while males are limited by access to mates. When local density increases, forage availability declines, while mate access for males may increase due to an increasingly female-biased sex ratio. Density dependence in emigration rates may consequently differ between sexes. Here, we investigate emigration using mark-recovery data from 468 young red deer Cervus elaphus marked in Snillfjord, Norway over a 20-year period when the population size has increased sixfold. We demonstrate a strong negative density-dependent emigration rate in males, while female emigration rates were lower and independent of density. Emigrating males leaving the natal range settled in areas with lower density than expected by chance. Dispersing males moved 42 per cent longer at high density in 1997 (37 km) than at low density in 1977 (26 km), possibly caused by increasing saturation of deer in areas surrounding the marking sites. Our study highlights that pattern of density dependence in dispersal rates may differ markedly between sexes in highly polygynous species. Contrasting patterns reported in small-scale studies are suggestive that spatial scale of density variation may affect the pattern of temporal density dependence in emigration rates and distances.     

Facts From Feces: Nitrogen Still Measures Up as a Nutritional Index for Mammalian Herbivores

Abstract: Fecal nitrogen (FN) has been applied widely as an index of dietary quality in studies of nutritional ecology of free-ranging and captive vertebrate herbivores, particularly ruminants. Three related articles in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM; Leslie and Starkey 1985, 1987; Hobbs 1987) have been cited (n = 150) in 87 publications and 39 peer-reviewed journals. The critique by Hobbs (1987) and the reply by Leslie and Starkey (1987) on limitations and appropriate applications of FN have been used to justify use of FN or negate its value as a nutritional proxy. We undertook a retrospective analysis of FN applications since 1985, largely because we sensed that methodological cautions noted in the 3 JWM publications were not being followed, leading to faulty conclusions and management applications, and that application protocols needed updating. From January 1986 through July 2007, the 107 species-by-continent applications of FN, citing the 3 JWM publications singly or in any combination, were diverse; FN was used in various ways on 5 continents and for 50 wild and domestic species. Cumulative rates of departure from recommended FN applications increased in recent years, largely in studies that compare different species while failing to fully acknowledge that differences likely reflected digestive capabilities rather than differences in some aspect of dietary intake. Post-1985 research on plant secondary compounds (e.g., tannins) has refined limitations to the application of FN, permitting more straightforward protocols than were possible in 1985. Although use does not necessarily reflect value, the number of published applications during the past 22 years indicates that peer reviewers from a variety of scientific disciplines view FN as a suitable proxy for nutritional status, which can be used to contrast study units when carefully defined by the study design. Any index can have shortcomings, and there are still circumstances when application of FN is problematic. Precise prediction of intake with FN under field conditions is still hampered by inherent variability, but contrasts of comparable study units and species can be appropriate. Published protocols for FN, as amended herein, should be adhered to, and conclusions are strengthened by the use of multiple nutritional indices.     

Response of fishes and aquatic habitats to sand-bed stream restoration using large woody debris

Effects of habitat rehabilitation of Little Topashaw Creek, a sinuous, sand-bed stream draining 37 km² in northwest Mississippi are described. The rehabilitation project consisted of placing 72 large woody debris structures along eroding concave banks and planting 4000 willow cuttings in sandbars. Response was measured by monitoring flow, channel geometry, physical aquatic habitat, and fish populations. Initially, debris structures reduced high flow velocities at concave bank toes, preventing further erosion and inducing deposition. Physical response during the first year following construction included creation of sand berms along eroding banks and slight increases in base flow water width and depth. Fish collections showed assemblages typical of incising streams within the region, but minor initial responses to debris addition were evident. Progressive failure of the structures and renewed erosion were observed during the second year after construction.     

Patch area, population density and the scaling of migration rates: the resource concentration hypothesis revisited

Empirical research has for a long time observed that animal densities may both increase and decrease with patch size, and these variable responses have been difficult to explain using the current theoretical framework. The most influential hypothesis, the resource concentration hypothesis, predicts only positive density–area relations, as a consequence of different emigration and immigration rates in small and large patches, and empirical deviations have inspired a flurry of alternative explanations. In this paper, we use realistic rules for the relationship between patch size and migration rates and show a wider predictive range for density–area relations than previously believed. Comparisons with published data suggest that observed density–area relations may easily fit in a framework based on a minimum set of behavioural and population processes. This does not imply that other mechanisms are unimportant, but merely that their quantitative importance can only be evaluated relative to patch geometry and local growth.