Quantitative Ecological Risk Analysis by Evaluating China's Eco-Efficiency and Its Determinants

Industrial production can produce large amounts of harmful by-products, causing serious pollution and ecological risk. In addition, if government regulations are subjected into the industries, huge cost risk will be faced. This article adopts a two-stage slack-based undesirable-output data envelope analysis (DEA) model to measure the eco-efficiency of China. In the first stage, we analyze the eco-efficiency of each province of China, and in the second stage, we employed a truncated bootstrap method to understand the determinants of eco-efficiency. The results indicate that whereas the eco-efficiency of the eastern region was the highest, that of the western region was the lowest. The western region's economy lagged behind that of other regions, and its environment suffered from heavy pollution. It was found that the level of industrialization did not contribute to eco-efficiency. However, promotion of the service industry, investment for the environment, and regional innovation have positive effects on eco-efficiency.     

国外旅游生态效率优化与管理

旅游生态效率概念采用定量化方法对旅游业经济、环境影响进行分析,成为旅游业可持续发展评价的重要工具。基于可持续理论的旅游生态效率优化管理方案不断涌现,相关利益主体应用较多的有环境管理系统、旅游生态标签、清洁生产理念、旅游生态效率中心、21世纪地方议程等。在旅游企业日常运营中积极推动生态效率优化管理,是贯彻绿色发展理念,提高目的地旅游经济、环境绩效的一种新思路。从可持续背景下旅游生态效率优化模型入手,系统化分析了国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案的内容与特征。其中,环境管理系统在目的地层面为旅游生态效率优化设计了一套评估管理流程,旅游生态标签为目的地生态效率水平提供了可视化标志符号,21世纪地方议程为旅游可持续发展提供一致性整合方案,清洁生产理念是一种基于生态效率优化的长期战略,旅游生态效率中心作为非营利性机构有利于中小企业获得较好的环境绩效表现。国外旅游生态效率优化管理方案特征明显、设计合理、管理科学,对我国目的地旅游生态效率优化提升具有重要的借鉴作用。     

基于碳排放核算的中国区域旅游业生态效率测度及比较研究

旅游业作为国民经济发展的战略性支柱产业在区域发展中具有重要作用。借鉴生态效率的基本思想,考虑区域能源消费结构差异,使用自下而上的方法将旅游交通、旅游住宿与游憩活动碳排放进行加总估算出2000—2013年中国旅游业碳排放量;接着运用单一比值法计算出2000—2013年中国及各地区旅游业生态效率值,利用变异系数、莫兰指数对测度结果进行分析并与可持续发展生态效率值进行比较。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2013年,中国旅游业碳排放量不断增加,从2000年的1202.71万t增加到2013年的4151.57万t。旅游业部门之间碳排放量差异较大,尤其是旅游交通部门占到旅游业碳排放量的90%左右;(2)得益于2000—2013年旅游业发展的促进政策,中国及各地区旅游业生态效率总体上呈现不断改善的趋势,中国旅游业生态效率由2000年0.1193 kgCO_2-e/$下降到0.0309 kgCO_2-e/$。(3)时间维度上,中国旅游业生态效率的区域不平衡问题仍然存在,相比于2000年旅游业生态效率变异系数0.7114,2013年的变异系数反而增加到0.7483;空间维度上,各地区旅游业生态效率聚集模式发生了明显变化,莫兰指数由0.3036减少到0.0278。(4)通过将测度结果进行比较,中国旅游业自2000年开始进入可持续发展阶段,中国旅游业的整体可持续水平要优于其他产业,各地区的旅游业在2010年全部进入可持续发展状态。最后,对结果进行了讨论并提出旅游业生态效率的优化应从旅游收入增加与旅游业减排两方面进行。     

基于物质流分析和数据包络分析的区域生态效率评价——以江苏省为例

区域生态效率(eco-efficiency)评价是考量区域可持发展的重要内容.基于物质流分析(material flow analysis, MFA)构建区域生态效率评价指标体系,并将污染物排放作为一种非期望输入引入到数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis, DEA)模型中,以江苏省(1990～2005年)为例进行生态效率分析评价.结果表明,江苏省的区域生态效率在1990～2005年期间呈现逐步上升的趋势.但是,同期的总物质投入(total material input, TMI)、物质需求总量(total material requirement, TMR)和污染物排放量也呈上升趋势.因此,江苏省社会经济发展和环境影响总体上呈现"弱脱钩(weak de-link)".     

Fostering Industrial Symbiosis With Agent-Based Simulation and Participatory Modeling

The sciences of industrial ecology, complex systems, and adaptive management are intimately related, since they deal with flows and dynamic interdependencies between system elements of various kinds. As such, the tool kit of complex systems science could enrich our understanding of how industrial ecosystems might evolve over time. In this article, I illustrate how an important tool of complex systems science— agent-based simulation —can help to identify those potential elements of an industrial ecosystem that could work together to achieve more eco-efficient outcomes. For example, I show how agent-based simulation can generate cost-efficient energy futures in which groups of firms behave more eco-efficiently by introducing strategically located clusters of renewable, low-emissions, distributed generation. I then explain how role-playing games and participatory modeling can build trust and reduce conflict about the sharing of common-pool resources such as water and energy among small clusters of evolving agents. Collective learning can encourage potential industrial partners to gradually cooperate by exchanging by-products and/or sharing common infrastructure by dint of their close proximity. This kind of coevolutionary learning, aided by participatory modeling, could help to bring about industrial symbiosis.     

京津冀地区新型城镇化对土地生态效率影响的实证分析

近年来, 城市化进程的不断推进对城市土地利用及生态环境产生了极大影响。选取城镇化发展最为迅速与典型的京津冀地区作为研究区域, 采用超效率DEA模型及Malmquist效率指数, 从经济学角度分析2006-2015年土地生态效率的时空演变, 随后, 基于人口、富裕和技术(STRIPAT)模型, 构建新型城镇化发展水平的综合指标评价体系, 分析新型城镇化对土地生态效率的影响。研究结果表明: 京津冀地区城镇化发展水平与土地生态效率之间存在显著的正相关关系, 即城镇化水平的不断提升对土地生态效率的提高具有积极作用, 各城市土地生态效率在新型城镇化发展背景下存在明显的空间差异, 此外, 土地利用与管理技术水平的提高、环境政策的改变等均会对土地生态效率的提升产生积极影响。这项研究旨在为提高城市土地管理水平, 推动城市可持续发展提供决策支持。     

旅游废弃物生态影响评价——以九寨沟、黄山风景区为例

从旅游生态系统物质与能量循环的特点出发,提出旅游废弃物的概念,构建基于生态足迹的旅游废弃物生态影响评价模型,并以九寨沟、黄山风景区为例进行实证比较研究.研究结果表明:(1)2004年九寨沟旅游废弃物生态足迹总量为46960.5678hm2,是黄山总量22331.4490hm2的2.1倍,人均0.024560966hm2是黄山人均0.01394088 hm2的1.76倍.(2)显性生态因子的废水、粪便、固体垃圾、废弃物处理设施的生态足迹很小,4类合计仅占总量的0.16%(九寨沟)与0.3%(黄山),而隐性生态因子CO2排放的生态足迹则占总量的99.84%(九寨沟)与99.70%(黄山).(3)2004年九寨沟与黄山旅游业的CO2排放量分别高达309455.66t与146947.84t,游客人均CO2排放量分别为161.85kg、91.74kg,旅游业的CO2排放对全球气候变化与生态影响的特征明显.(4)旅游废弃物生态足迹中游客占1%,居民占0.26%,而相关企业(交通、饭店)占98.74%.(5)旅游废弃物对九寨沟风景区、成都-九寨沟沿途区域、成都—九寨沟沿途区域以外地区不同空间尺度的生态影响分别为1.26%、34.8%、63.94%;对黄山风景区、黄山市区域、黄山市区域以外地区的生态影响分别为14.6%、31.97%、53.43%.(6)2004年九寨沟、黄山旅游业的生态效率分别为2.53kgCO2-e/US$、1.67kgCO2-e/US$,生态效率值偏大,对生态环境的影响深远.(7)由于风景区规模、性质、游客构成以及游客选择交通工具的差异,旅游废弃物对不同旅游地生态影响的程度与方向不同,而降低游客规模、缩短旅行距离、减少飞机旅行方式等是降低旅游废弃物生态影响的关键.     

Improving Energy Efficiency by Five Percent and More per Year?

Reduction of specific energy consumption by 1% to 2% per year is typically what is considered feasible for end-use energy applications. This article tries to answer the question of whether much higher rates, for example 5% and more, are feasible for new equipment, installations, and buildings.
After examining some end-use functions in industry, buildings, and the transport sector, it is concluded that for the foreseeable future—that is, not more than 10 to 20 years into the future—such high rates of reduction of specific energy consumption are indeed possible. For the longer term, no definitive proof is available, but there are also no indications that such high rates could not be maintained.
The effect of the reduction of specific energy consumption on total energy use depends on the growth of energy-using activities and on the replacement rates of capital stock. Taking these into account, it is estimated that for industrialized countries a reduction of absolute total energy use by 50% in 50 years compared with the current levels is possible.
Such a reduction requires a huge effort in innovation; however, the possibilities for stimulating innovation seem not to be exhausted yet.     

基于绿色GDP和生态足迹的江西省生态效率动态变化研究

生态效率是循环经济与可持续发展的有效测度,其测度方法一直是相关研究领域的热点和难点。鉴于绿色GDP能反映出剔除资源损耗和生态环境影响的国民经济净收益,生态足迹则更能全面地衡量经济发展中消耗的各种物质、能源以及带来的环境影响,基于WBCSD提出的生态效率定义及核算方法,创新性地从绿色GDP和生态足迹的视角改进生态效率度量模型,并以江西省为研究对象,对其2000—2015年间的生态效率变化轨迹及成因进行衡量与分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年江西省单位面积生态足迹的绿色GDP即生态效率总体呈上升趋势,15年来提升了4.57倍,与此同时,绿色GDP、生态足迹也呈上升趋势,但绿色GDP的增速明显高于生态足迹的增速;(2)江西省绿色GDP占总的GDP的比例处于不规则波动状态,平均为84.61%,其中自然资源损耗价值、环境退化损失价值和资源环境改善效益也呈不规则波动,三者皆呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,其中自然资源损耗对绿色GDP的影响较为显著;(3)江西省生态足迹不断增加,总生态足迹15年来增加了83.6%,年平均增长率为4.26%,从生态足迹构成来看,各土地利用类型生态足迹均呈波动上升趋势,其中牧草地足迹增长最为显著;(4)江西省生态足迹的主要类型是牧草地足迹、耕地足迹和化石能源用地足迹,其中牧草地足迹比重最大,并且保持波动上升趋势,其次是耕地和化石能源用地足迹,但两者比重均呈小幅下降趋势。从生态效率度量模型的创新性、适应性和生态效率的提高途径等方面进行了详细的探讨。     

The Ecological Footprint Intensity of National Economies

At least three perspectives—industrial ecology (IE), ecological modernization theory (EMT), and the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC)—emphasize the potential for sustainability via refinements in production systems that dramatically reduce the environmental impacts of economic development. Can improvements in efficiency counterbalance environmental impacts stemming from the scale of production? To address this question we analyze cross‐national variation in the ecological footprint (EF) per unit of gross domestic product (GDP). The EF is a widely recognized indicator of human pressure on the environment. The EF of a nation is the amount of land area that would be required to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb the wastes it generates. The most striking finding of our analyses is that there is limited variation across nations in EF per unit of GDP. This indicates limited plasticity in the levels of EF intensity or eco‐efficiency among nations, particularly among affluent nations. EF intensity is lowest (ecoefficiency is highest) in affluent nations, but the level of efficiency in these nations does not appear to be of sufficient magnitude to compensate for their large productive capacities. These results suggest that modernization and economic development will be insufficient, in themselves, to bring about the ecological sustainability of societies.