Rapid prioritization of alien plants for eradication based on climatic suitability and eradication feasibility

Identifying which introduced species have the greatest potential for establishment, spread and impact is critical for prioritizing pre‐ and post‐border control. Using species distribution modelling and existing species locations we assessed the establishment risk based on the climatic suitability areas of 25 plant species listed as eradication targets under South African regulations. To improve confidence, three bioclimatic models were used to predict the potential distribution of each species. This information was combined with the number of localities and the “eradication feasibility syndromes” in a scoring‐categorical system to rank the species. Three management groups were identified. Group “A” includes species with medium‐high establishment risk and higher likelihood to be eradicated, these species should be a priority for eradication. Group “B” includes species with a medium‐low establishment risk but given the low number of known population and the species characteristics, eradication is likely to be feasible. Finally species in group “C” scored a medium‐high establishment risk but the eradication would be difficult due to the high number of known localities. This ranking provides a rapid method to prioritize the management towards the eradication of new potential invasive plant species in the country combining the establishment risk, known number of localities and the inferred eradication success.     

Beyond “beyond GDP indicators:” The need for reflexivity in science for governance

“Beyond GDP” initiatives flag the limits of the quantitative indicators of progress currently used for governance. Focusing on the quality assessment of quantitative information used for governance, we use some of the conceptual tools of theoretical ecology and evolutionary biology in order to identify the pre-analytical choices that determine the usefulness and pertinence of a model. Starting from the definition of a model as a formal representation of a specific and necessarily subjective observation, we show that the production of indicators is the final result of a series of decisions on what to observe and how. These choices, in turn, depend on the narrative, or set of narratives, adopted. Narratives provide causality and context to knowledge claims and are needed to select the indicators to be used for policy. Moving beyond the GDP debate requires reflexivity, that is, awareness of the key role that pre-analytical choices play in the definition of both the relevance of the chosen perceptions and narratives (determined by the normative stands of different actors – who defines wellbeing?), and the usefulness of the chosen models and data (determined by the pertinence of the resulting representation – how to measure wellbeing?). Reflexivity is essential in order to take into account the purposes for which different indicators were created and to define new purposes for the “beyond GDP” indicators.     

When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Drought‐stress and plant resistance affect herbivore performance and proteome: the case of the green peach aphid Myzus persicae (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

Little is known about the simultaneous effects of drought stress and plant resistance on herbivorous insects. By subjecting the green peach aphid Myzus persicae Sulzer to well‐watered and drought‐stressed plants of both susceptible and resistant peach (Prunus persica), the effects of both stressors on aphid performance and proteomics are tested. Overall, the influence of the water treatment on aphid performance is less pronounced than the effect of host plant genetic resistance. On the susceptible cultivar, aphid survival, host acceptance and ability to colonize the plant do not depend on water treatment. On the resistant cultivar, aphid survival and ability to colonize are higher on drought‐stressed than on well‐watered plants. A study examining the pattern of protein expression aiming to explain the variation in aphid performance finds higher protein expression in aphids on the drought‐stressed susceptible cultivars compared with the well‐watered ones. In the susceptible cultivar, the regulated proteins are related to energy metabolism and exoskeleton functionality, whereas, in the resistant cultivar, the proteins are involved with the cytoskeleton. Comparison of the protein expression ratios for resistant versus susceptible plants reveals that four proteins are down‐regulated in well‐watered plants and 15 proteins are down‐regulated in drought‐stressed plants. Drought stress applied to the susceptible cultivar induces the regulation of proteins in M. persicae that enable physiological adaptation to maintain an almost unaltered aphid performance. By contrast, for aphids on the resistant cultivar subjected to drought stress, the down‐regulation of proteins responds to an induced host susceptibility effect.     

Health risk assessment via consumption of Pb and Cd contaminated vegetables collected from fresh markets in the lower north of Thailand

This study aimed to investigate the Pb and Cd contamination and health risk assessment for population via consumption of vegetables sold in fresh markets around the lower north of Thailand. The concentrations of Pb and Cd in various vegetables such as root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, fruit, and leaf vegetables were analyzed using an atomic absorption spec-trophotometer. Human health risks of these metals in vegetables were assessed based on target hazard quotient (THQ). The results indicated that more than 80% of the Pb and Cd in almost all vegetable samples exceeded the maximum allowable concentration by National Food Institute criteria with an average range of 0.96–3.39 and 0.48–1.40 mg/kg, respectively. The estimated daily intakes (EDI) of Pb and Cd via dietary consumption of vegetables were between 0.001–0.010 and 0.002–0.008 mg/kg/d, respectively. All EDIs of Pb contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA except for leaf edible vegetables, while all EDIs of Cd contaminated vegetables were higher than the reference dose recommended by the USEPA. THQ indicated that the consumption of Pb contaminated root/tuber, stem, inflorescence, and fruit edible vegetables and Cd contaminated leaf vegetable for the local population in the lower north of Thailand could be a severe health risk problem.     

Patch assessment in foraging flocks of European starlings: evidence for the use of public information

A field experiment was carried out to determine whether group-foragingstarlings (Sturnus vulgaris) use public information to helpthem estimate the quality of an artificial resource patch anddepart accordingly. Three kinds of information are potentiallyavailable in a group: patch-sample information, pre-harvestinformation, and public information. These three types of informationcan be combined into four patch assessment strategies: (1) patch-samplealone; (2) patch-sample and pre-harvest; (3) patch-sample andpublic; and (4) patch-sample, pre-harvest, and public. Dependingon the foraging environment we presented to the starlings, eachassessment strategy made a unique set of predictions concerningthe patch departure decisions of pairs of birds based on differencesin their foraging success. The environment was manipulated intwo ways: by altering the variability in patch quality and bychanging compatibility, the ease with which individual birdscould simultaneously acquire both patch-sample and public information.Our observations on patch persistence and departure order demonstratethat the starlings used a combination of patch-sample and publicinformation, but not pre-harvest information, to estimate thequality of the experimental patch. Moreover, our results suggestthat starlings use public information only when it is easilyavailable and ignore it under incompatible conditions. Thisstudy provides the first evidence of public information usein a patch assessment problem.     

Field assessment of numerical impacts of coastal sewage disposal on fish larvae relative to natural variability

Sewage disposal in aquatic environments can have significant impacts on assemblages of organisms. There have been few field investigations on effects of sewage disposal on fish larvae. Data on abundances of larvae, current velocities and the size and shape of sewage plumes from point-source shoreline outfalls off Sydney (Australia) indicated that alongshore currents could transport large numbers of fish larvae into plumes, potentially affecting their health. Assemblages of fish larvae in surface sewage plumes differed to those in distant shelf (control) waters, but no such impacts were detected for assemblages in subsurface (20 m depth) waters beneath plumes. No predictable negative or positive numerical responses of fish larvae to sewage disposal were detected. Abundances of fish larvae fluctuated greatly in space and throughout time, and responses appeared to vary between taxa, outfalls and sampling periods. However, the large inherent level of natural spatial and temporal variability in abundances of larvae confounded the detection of possible impacts. Future field investigations need to focus on effects of sewage disposal on the health and condition of fish larvae. Designs for future field-based studies are discussed.     

基于指标自动筛选的新疆开孔河流域生态健康评价

生态健康评价对了解区域生态健康状况和促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义,如何自动筛选出能反映生态系统特性的重要指标,是生态健康定量评估的关键问题。基于压力-状态-响应(PSR,Press-State-Response)框架和生态等级网络框架(EHN,Ecological Hierarchy Network),通过文献调研和因果分析建立要素层与指标层之间的交叉联系,构建了生态健康评价"网状"指标体系;在保证指标体系完备性基础上,通过结合主成分分析和熵权法的候选指标权重的客观计算,基于目标优化理论构建了评价指标的自动筛选模型,并基于中选指标计算了新疆开孔河流域2001—2017年生态健康指数(EHCI,Ecological Health Comprehensive Indexes),分析其空间分异和时间变化特征。结果表明:利用所建立的评价指标自动筛选模型,开孔河流域生态健康评价指标由31个候选指标自动筛选出了17个中选指标,用54.8%的指标表达了85.98%的信息,中选的17个指标在干旱/半干旱区域有关文献中应用较多,使用频次比例都在20%以上,其中归一化植被指数(NDVI,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)、年降水量和植被覆盖度(FVC,Fractional Vegetation Coverage)3个指标的使用频次百分比均超过了50%,说明指标自动筛选模型的合理性;开孔河流域空间分布差异显著,总体上西北高、东南低,东南部和中部绿洲区外围生态健康状况较差,西北部河谷地带和中部两大绿洲区生态健康状况较好;17年来,流域生态质量整体趋于改善,显著改善区域占10.26%,远高于显著退化的1.61%,显著改善区域以孔雀河绿洲最为明显。开孔河流域生态健康的总体好转趋势说明区域生态综合治理取得一定成效。