Parametric and Parametrically Smoothed Distribution-Free Proportional Hazard Models with Discrete Data

This paper discusses discrete time proportional hazard models and suggests a new class of flexible hazard functions. Explicitly modeling the discreteness of data is important since standard continuous models are biased; allowing for flexibility in the hazard estimation is desirable since strong parametric restrictions are likely to be similarly misleading. Simulation compare continuous and discrete models when data are generated by grouping and demonstrate that simple approximations recover underlying hazards well and outperform nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates in term of mean squared error.     

气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟

中国梧桐属（Firmiana）在世界梧桐属中占比较大，且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种，灭绝风险大，研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据，基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵（Maxent）模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区，得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明：（1）梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲；（2） Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值均大于0.9，表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度；（3）气候变化影响下除云南梧桐（Firmiana major）外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大；（4）中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向，南北向大跨度迁移较少，纬度变化不大；（5）丹霞梧桐（Firmiana danxiaensis）的稳定潜在适生区最小；（6）中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区；（7）中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部；（8）梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态，可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议，为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。     

Coping with drought: diapause plasticity in katydid eggs at high,mid-, and low elevations

1. Semi-arid rangeland productivity is limited by precipitation, and yet droughts are projected to increase in frequency and duration with unknown impacts on insect populations. As some katydids prolong diapause and remain in an egg bank as a blastoderm for multiple growing seasons, is it possible that drought could prolong diapause and promote outbreaks by synchronising embryonic development and hatching of Mormon crickets, Anabrus simplex, after moisture is restored? 2. In this study, a high-elevation Wyoming population (WY) was compared with a mid-elevation Idaho (ID) and a low-elevation Oregon population (OR). It was predicted that eggs from the drier ID and OR habitats would be more tolerant of desiccation. Developmental state and water loss of eggs were measured after drought treatments, and when moisture was restored. 3. The two drier treatments had significantly more WY eggs prolonging diapause until after drought ended compared with the two wetter treatments. Whether WY eggs developed in the second or subsequent warm periods was independent of drought treatments. Significantly fewer OR embryos developed in the driest treatment compared with the others, whereas almost all ID eggs developed irrespective of the drought treatment. 4. In conclusion, Mormon crickets can delay embryonic development to improve drought tolerance. Although drought did not synchronise development and hatching, diapause plasticity allowed insects to cope and await more favourable conditions. 5. Unexpectedly, eggs from WY (the highest, wettest site) were more tolerant, because postponing development resulted in less water loss than in developed embryos. OR egg loss was also reduced by prolonging diapause, relative to ID, which developed in even the driest conditions.     

The synthesis and hepatoprotective activity of esters of the lupane group triterpenoids

Hemisuccinates, hemiphthalates, acetylsalicylates, cinnamates, andp-methoxycinnamates of lupeol, betulin, and 3-O-acetylbetulin were synthesized via interaction with corresponding acid anhydrides or acid chlorides. A number of betulin esters in position 3 and 28 were shown to exhibit a pronounced hepatoprotective effect similar to that of betulin and silibor. These experimental data were in a good agreement with the computer prediction of their biological activity. Betulin 3,28-bishemiphthalate was more effective than carsil in models of experimental hepatitis caused by carbon tetrachloride, tetracycline, and ethanol.     

Accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values for carcass merit traits in Angus and Charolais beef cattle

Accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values for carcass merit traits including hot carcass weight, longissimus muscle area (REA), carcass average backfat thickness (AFAT), lean meat yield (LMY) and carcass marbling score (CMAR) was evaluated based on 543 Angus and 400 Charolais steers genotyped on the Illumina BovineSNP50 Beadchip. For the genomic prediction within Angus, the average accuracy was 0.35 with a range from 0.32 (LMY) to 0.37 (CMAR) across different training/validation data‐splitting strategies and statistical methods. The within‐breed genomic prediction for Charolais yielded an average accuracy of 0.36 with a range from 0.24 (REA) to 0.46 (AFAT). The across‐breed prediction had the lowest accuracy, which was on average near zero. When the data from the two breeds were combined to predict the breeding values of either breed, the prediction accuracy averaged 0.35 for Angus with a range from 0.33 (REA) to 0.39 (CMAR) and averaged 0.33 for Charolais with a range from 0.18 (REA) to 0.46 (AFAT). The prediction accuracy was slightly higher on average when the data were split by animal's birth year than when the data were split by sire family. These results demonstrate that the genetic relationship or relatedness of selection candidates with the training population has a great impact on the accuracy of predicting genomic breeding values under the density of the marker panel used in this study.     

Epilogue — Demography and anthropology

As a conclusion, this paper reviews briefly the content of the volume. The wealth of demographic data has not been adequately exploited in anthropology; this is why this publication is valuable in showing attempts to apply demographic data in a variety of anthropological problems. This symposium has explored many interesting points which we recall here. Yet it has also opened up a whole range of further questions on the material presented as well as in this broad field. Several directions of research could be developed, for instance, testing among human populations, over long periods, the ecological thoughts of ecosystems evolving as a cascade of instabilities, rather than a succession of equilibrium states. Let us also recall the pervasive nature of demographic facts in topics such as the energy cycle or the genetic structure and evolution of human populations.     

Fish population structuring in the North Sea: understanding processes and mechanisms from studies of the movements of adults

Few fish species form single, panmictic populations throughout their geographic range, most form subpopulations or 'stocks' with differing levels of interconnectivity. Different patterns of interconnectivity between subpopulations will give rise to different responses to exploitation and management, but they will also have different capacities to generate the genetic and phenotypic differences often used to discriminate between stocks. Consequently, knowledge of ontogenetic and seasonal patterns in the distribution, movement and behaviour of individuals is crucial to identifying population substructure. This paper considers the evidence gathered about movements and behaviour of adult fishes from mark-recapture and electronic tagging studies for a number of fish species in the North Sea and elsewhere in U.K. waters in an attempt to understand population structure and the processes that may give rise to it.     

Prediction and verification of novel peptide targets of protein tyrosine phosphatase 1B

Phosphotyrosine peptides are useful starting points for inhibitor design and for the search for protein tyrosine phosphatase (PTP) phosphoprotein substrates. To identify novel phosphopeptide substrates of PTP1B, we developed a computational prediction protocol based on a virtual library of protein sequences with known phosphotyrosine sites. To these we applied sequence-based methods, biologically meaningful filters and molecular docking. Five peptides were selected for biochemical testing of their potential as PTP1B substrates. All five peptides were equally good substrates for PTP1B compared to a known peptide substrate whereas appropriate control peptides were not recognized, showing that our protocol can be used to identify novel peptide substrates of PTP1B.