Sustainable livelihood framework-based indicators for assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation for Himalayan communities

This study evaluated the climate change vulnerability of Himalayan communities, and their potential to adapt to these changes, through assessing their perceived reactions and counter-actions to climate change. The evaluation was conducted through proposing and testing indices for vulnerability (Climate Vulnerability Index – CVI) and adaptation (Current Adaptive Capacity Index – CACI) based on the assumption that a community is an active dynamic entity and has tremendous capability to address the impacts of climate change through an ability to make adjustments based on perceived experiences. Both CVI and CACI include the five forms of capital leading to sustainable livelihood, i.e. human, natural, financial, social and physical capital, and were assessed for each of these forms of capital based on the IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment and its three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity). Data for the analysis were collected from randomly selected households located away from district headquarters (ADH) and near district headquarters (NDH). Each dimension was measured based on associated socio-environment-specific indicators for assessing vulnerability and sustainability at community level. The results showed that ADH households had higher human capital and natural capital vulnerability than NDH households. In contrast, NDH households had higher social capital and financial capital vulnerability than ADH households. Overall, ADH households had greater vulnerability than NDH households.These results improve understanding of the environmental and socio-economic changes affecting rural livelihoods and the measures needed to address their specific vulnerabilities by addressing bottlenecks in education and training facilities for skill up-grading, increasing interaction opportunities through local functions and creating opportunities for income generation and effective market and farm linkages. An attempt was made to reduce the gap between bottom-up understanding and top-down policies by suggesting precautionary and ongoing adaptation practices for the communities studied, leading to effective and efficient addressal of vulnerabilities. Vulnerability in the study context was taken to mean externally driven change leading to disturbance in the human environment that could alter internal and external livelihood settings.     

Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources

Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process‐based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within‐ and between‐season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central‐place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late‐flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass‐flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late‐blooming flower strips increased early‐season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late‐season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process‐based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short‐ and long‐term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other existing models. Future applications include species comparisons, analysis of the sensitivity of predictions to life‐history traits, as well as large‐scale management intervention and policy assessment.     

Analysis and evaluation of ecosystem resilience: an economic perspective with an application to the Venice lagoon

This paper focuses on the analysis and evaluation of resilience anchored in an economic perspective. Resilience, as well as most of the benefits provided by ecosystems, is not priced on current markets. However, this does not mean that resilience is of no value for humans. On the contrary, the interest of using an economic perspective, and the respective scientific methodology, will be put forward in terms of resilience relevance for ecosystem functioning, and its impact on human welfare. The economic perspective is anchored in an anthropocentric analysis evaluating resilience in terms of provision of natural capital benefits. These in turn are interpreted as insurance against the risk of ecosystem malfunctioning and the consequent interruption of the provision of goods and services to humans. For this analysis, we make use of a conceptual framework that identifies and describes the different value components of resilience. Finally, we present an illustration that discusses the economic analysis of resilience benefits in the context of the Venice Lagoon.     

The use of ecological integrity indicators within the natural capital index framework: The ecological and economic value of the remnant natural capital of México

In this paper, the ecological integrity hierarchy framework (EIHF) and the natural capital index framework (NCI) are integrated as decision-making tools for evaluating the natural capital of Mexico. Two hierarchy-levels of ecological integrity indicators are used to estimate the quality and quantity of the natural capital, the amount of ecological degradation and ecological sustainability. After human transformation, the extent still considered as “natural” in the country is ∼67%; while the amount of human transformed areas is ∼33%, which gives a total estimate of NCI = 0.334; i.e., only ∼33.4% of the national capital remains available, while ∼33% is ecologically degraded. Furthermore, the critical natural capital; i.e., the legacy for future generations that remains in the country is only ∼12%. The total estimated value of the current natural capital in Mexico is ∼$457.1 billion/yr, which is ∼435 times greater than the national GDP ($1.051 billion in 2010). The cost of maintaining the degradation of the natural capital is ∼$144.6 billion/yr (∼138 times greater than national GDP in 2010). The potential value of the natural capital after restoration would be ∼$602 billion/yr. Valuing the natural capital can be helpful for strategic environmental evaluations and useful for spatial decision support systems that evaluate natural capital as a decision-making tool.     

Method for endogenizing capital in the United States Environmentally‐Extended Input‐Output model

Each year businesses, governments, and homeowners in the United States invest around one fifth of gross domestic product into the creation of capital assets such as buildings, machinery, and software to enable production and consumption. Use of capital is typically included to some extent in environmental life cycle assessments of goods and services but is not incorporated into most environmentally extended input‐output (EEIO) models, including the US Environmental Protection Agency's USEEIO. Capital assets are typically created in years prior to their use, so a challenge lies in distributing the impacts of their creation over time. In this work, a highly detailed capital flow matrix approach is followed to distribute the use of fixed capital assets to consuming industries. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis's Fixed Asset Accounts is merged with its Industry Accounts data by the creation of concordance tables. Public highways and streets are partially reallocated to industries operating vehicles. The resulting capital use matrix is later combined into a modified USEEIO. “Housing” is found to be the largest consumer of fixed assets, followed by general government, fossil fuel extraction, and financial industries involved in leasing. Construction, vehicles, and machinery are mostly used by industries in the form of fixed assets. The types of fixed assets used by industries are consistent with expectations: housing is dominated by structures, transport by equipment, and information industries by intellectual property products.     

The impact of a malaria elimination initiative on school outcomes: Evidence from Southern Mozambique

Despite the significant improvements achieved over the last ten years, primary education attainment in Mozambique is still low. Potential reasons acting from the demand perspective include ill health, among other factors. In Mozambique, ill health is still largely linked to malaria, which is a leading cause of outpatient contacts, hospital admissions and death, particularly among under-five and school-aged children. Despite this, in Mozambique and more generally, in malaria endemic countries, the identification and measurement of how improved malaria indicators may contribute to better school outcomes remains largely unknown. In particular, there is a low understanding of the extent to which better health translates immediately into school indicators, such as absenteeism and grades. In this study, we exploit the first year of a malaria elimination initiative implemented in Magude district (Southern Mozambique) that started in 2015, as a quasi-experiment to estimate the impact of malaria on selected primary school outcomes. While malaria was not eliminated, its incidence drastically dropped. We use as control a neighbouring district (Manhiça) with similar socio-economic and epidemiological characteristics. By employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, we examine whether the positive health shock translated into improved school outcomes. Using information from school registers, we generated a dataset on school attendance and grades for 9,848 primary-school students from 9 schools (4 in the treated district and 5 in the control district). In our main specification, a repeated cross-section analysis, we find that the elimination initiative led to a 28% decrease in school absenteeism and a 2% increase in students’ grades. Our results are robust across different specifications, including a panel DiD individual fixed effects estimate on a sub-sample of students. These findings provide evidence on the negative impact of malaria on primary education attainment and suggest remarkable economic benefits consequent to its elimination.     

The economics of producing sustainable aviation fuel: a regional case study in Queensland,Australia

The airline industry has a strong interest in developing sustainable aviation fuels, in order to reduce their exposure to increasing oil prices and cost liability for greenhouse gas emissions. The feasibility and cost of producing sustainable biomass‐based jet fuels at a sufficient scale to materially address these issues is an enormous challenge. This paper builds directly on the biophysical study by H.T. Murphy, D.A. O'Connell, R.J. Raison, A.C. Warden, T.H. Booth, A. Herr, A.L. Braid, D.F. Crawford, J.A. Hayward, T. Javonovic, J.G. McIvor, M.H. O'Connor, M.L. Poole, D. Prestwidge, N. Raisbeck‐Brown & L. Rye, In review, which examined a 25 year scale‐up strategy to produce 5% of projected jet fuel demand in Australia in 2020 (470 mL) in the Fitzroy region of Queensland, Australia. The strategy was based on the use of a mixed ligno‐cellulosic biomass feedstock and assumed, for the sake of exploring and quantifying the scenario, a simplified two‐step conversion process – conversion of biomass to crude bio‐oil within the region, and upgrade to jet fuel at a central Brisbane facility. This paper provides details on the costs of production in this scenario, focusing on two different strategies for biomass utilization, and two types of novel small–medium scale conversion technologies. The cost analyses have taken into account technology learning curves, different economies of scale and key cost sensitivities. The cost of biomass‐based jet fuels is estimated to be between 0.70 and 1.90 The airline industry has a strong interest in developing sustainable aviation fuels, in order to reduce their exposure to increasing oil prices and cost liability for greenhouse gas emissions. The feasibility and cost of producing sustainable biomass‐based jet fuels at a sufficient scale to materially address these issues is an enormous challenge. This paper builds directly on the biophysical study by H.T. Murphy, D.A. O'Connell, R.J. Raison, A.C. Warden, T.H. Booth, A. Herr, A.L. Braid, D.F. Crawford, J.A. Hayward, T. Javonovic, J.G. McIvor, M.H. O'Connor, M.L. Poole, D. Prestwidge, N. Raisbeck‐Brown & L. Rye, In review, which examined a 25 year scale‐up strategy to produce 5% of projected jet fuel demand in Australia in 2020 (470 mL) in the Fitzroy region of Queensland, Australia. The strategy was based on the use of a mixed ligno‐cellulosic biomass feedstock and assumed, for the sake of exploring and quantifying the scenario, a simplified two‐step conversion process – conversion of biomass to crude bio‐oil within the region, and upgrade to jet fuel at a central Brisbane facility. This paper provides details on the costs of production in this scenario, focusing on two different strategies for biomass utilization, and two types of novel small–medium scale conversion technologies. The cost analyses have taken into account technology learning curves, different economies of scale and key cost sensitivities. The cost of biomass‐based jet fuels is estimated to be between 0.70 and 1.90 $ L^?1 when the efficiency of conversion of biomass to biocrude and subsequently to aviation fuel is varied by ±10% of published values, with an average value of 1.10 $ L^?1. This is within the range of the projected 2035 conventional jet fuel price of 1.50 $ L^?1. Therefore, biomass‐based jet fuel has the potential to contribute to supply of Australia's jet fuel needs in the future.     

The biodiversity‐dependent ecosystem service debt

Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity‐dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2–21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity‐dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services.     

Back to the Future: revisiting the contact hypothesis at Turkish and mixed non-profit organizations in Amsterdam

This paper revisits the contact hypothesis by assessing differences in generalized trust among participants of Turkish non-profit organizations and ethnically mixed organizations in Amsterdam. Most voluntary sector research takes the contact hypothesis at its core and assumes that the concentration of ethnic minorities in non-profit organizations is detrimental to learning generalized trust. These studies assume that diversity within organizations is better for developing generalized norms without examining participation in ethnically homogenous organizations. I address this gap in the literature by analysing the variance of generalized trust among organizations and their participants. I achieve this through the analysis of purposively designed survey data. The findings suggest that a contact mechanism at voluntary organizations is problematic and should not be asserted uncritically.