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1.
Quantitative models play an increasing role in exploring the impact of global change on biodiversity. To win credibility and trust, they need validating. We show how expert knowledge can be used to assess a large number of empirical species niche models constructed for the British vascular plant and bryophyte flora. Key outcomes were (a) scored assessments of each modeled species and niche axis combination, (b) guidance on models needing further development, (c) exploration of the trade‐off between presenting more complex model summaries, which could lead to more thorough validation, versus the longer time these take to evaluate, (d) quantification of the internal consistency of expert opinion based on comparison of assessment scores made on a random subset of models evaluated by both experts. Overall, the experts assessed 39% of species and niche axis combinations to be “poor” and 61% to show a degree of reliability split between “moderate” (30%), “good” (25%), and “excellent” (6%). The two experts agreed in only 43% of cases, reaching greater consensus about poorer models and disagreeing most about models rated as better by either expert. This low agreement rate suggests that a greater number of experts is required to produce reliable assessments and to more fully understand the reasons underlying lack of consensus. While area under curve (AUC) statistics showed generally very good ability of the models to predict random hold‐out samples of the data, there was no correspondence between these and the scores given by the experts and no apparent correlation between AUC and species prevalence. Crowd‐sourcing further assessments by allowing web‐based access to model fits is an obvious next step. To this end, we developed an online application for inspecting and evaluating the fit of each niche surface to its training data.  相似文献   
2.
Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate‐related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long‐term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold‐water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968–2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high‐emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst‐case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold‐water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring‐fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold‐stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring‐fed streams. Climate change‐induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems.  相似文献   
3.
Abstract

Seventy phytosociological relevés were performed in 1 m × 1 m plots at 14 study sites spread along sandy shores in northern and southern Sardinia (Italy). The plots were selected in different habitat types (open dunes, native Juniperus woodlands, maquis, and plantations with Acacia, Eucalyptus and Pinus) according to a stratified sampling method in order to investigate impacts deriving from different levels of Carpobrotus spp. cover, dry litter from exotic trees, and other disturbance types. The quantile regression and logistic regression analyses revealed that the reduction in the amount of bryophyte and lichen cover on sand dunes of the study area is caused either by a high cover of Carpobrotus spp. mats or by a high cover of dry exotic litter in dense, unmanaged or poorly managed forest plantations. Additional detrimental effects are often driven by other kinds of man‐made disturbances. Forest management in the coastal areas of Sardinia should be gradually modified to take into account the conservation of bryophytes and lichens. Some of the biological indicators used are quite widespread in the Mediterranean coastal habitats or are exclusively associated with sand dunes; therefore, they can also be conveniently used as indicators of biological impacts in other countries or islands of the same biogeographical region.  相似文献   
4.
Plant productivity is predicted to increase in boreal forests owing to climate change, but this may depend on whether N inputs from biological N-fixation also increases. We evaluated how alteration of climatic factors affects N input from a widespread boreal N-fixer, i.e. cyanobacteria associated with the feather moss Pleurozium schreberi. In each of 10 forest stands in northern Sweden, we established climate-change plots, including a control (ambient climate) plot and three plots experiencing a +2°C temperature increase, an approximately threefold reduction in precipitation frequency, and either 0.07, 0.29 or 1.16 times normal summer precipitation. We monitored N-fixation in these plots five times between 2007 and 2009, and three times in 2010 after climate treatments ended to assess their recovery. Warmer temperatures combined with less frequent precipitation reduced feather moss moisture content and N-fixation rates regardless of total precipitation. After climate treatments ended, recovery of N-fixation rates occurred on the scale of weeks to months, suggesting resilience of N-fixation to changes in climatic conditions. These results suggest that modelling of biological N-inputs in boreal forests should emphasize precipitation frequency and evaporative water loss in conjunction with elevated temperature rather than absolute changes in mean precipitation.  相似文献   
5.
英格兰洞穴苔藓植物区系特征及其岩溶沉积研究   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
根据作者1998-2000年采自英格兰7个岩溶洞穴452份苔藓植物标本研究,英格兰岩溶洞穴苔藓植物区系具有下列特征:(1)区系种类由20科41属65种(含变种亚种)组成;(2)区系地理成分含北温带分布(52.30%)、温带欧洲分布(15.38%)、欧洲-亚洲分布(1.54%)、欧洲-北美分布(12.31%)、旧世界温带分布(4.62%)、英国特有(1.54%)和世界广泛分布(12.31%)等7种成分;(3)生活型含高丛集型(9.22%)、矮丛集型(20%)、交织型(61.54%)、扇型(4.08%)和平铺型(4.08%)5种类型。14种洞穴苔藓植物参与了洞穴洞口钙华沉积,沉积形态包括钟乳石、洞壁钙华、洞底泉华和洞底滴水钙华4种类型。  相似文献   
6.
PIKE, L. M., HU, A., RENZAGLIA, K. S. & MUSICH, P. R., 1992. Liverwort genomes display extensive structural variations. Analyses of the total genomic DNA of eight species of liverworts and two species of green algae by thermal denaturation and CsCl buoyant density gradient centrifugation reveal a high degree of structural complexity and interspecific heterogeneity. The hepatic taxa exhibit two or more DNA components of varying base composition. Average G4-C contents of total cellular DNA calculated from melting profiles are similarly variable, ranging from 38% to 53% G + C. The green alga Chara , a member of the ancestral line to land plants, shows similarities with liverworts in possessing multiple DNA components of comparable complexity, whereas Hydrodiciyon DNA displays a single component. Detailed hybridization analyses of individual density gradient fractions using α-tubulin, rRNA and ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase large subunit (rbcL) gene probes were performed to locate the low-copy number and moderately repetitive nuclear genes, and the chloroplast chromosome, respectively. The location of each gene within the density gradient is highly variable among the organisms examined; a-tubulin occurs in fractions ranging from 44–64% G + C, rDNA in 50–64% G + C fractions, and the RbcL gene is located in fractions from 30–59% G + C. For a given species, the two nuclear genes normally overlap in their distributions within the gradient. In most instances, neither gene occurs in the major DNA components, indicating that these components may contain repetitive DNAs. The observed variation in the density of the rbcL gene implies substantial reorganization of the chloroplast genome. The overall differences in the genomic components within and between taxa provide insight into the dynamics of DNA structure that have occurred during the extended evolutionary history of these organisms.  相似文献   
7.
Abstract. Woodland colonization on wetlands is considered to have a detrimental effect on their ecological value, even though detailed analysis of this process is lacking. This paper provides an evaluation of the ecological changes resulting from succession of poor fen (base‐poor mire) to willow wet woodland on Goss Moor NNR in Cornwall, UK. Different ages of willow carr were associated with eight understorey communities. During willow colonization, in the ground flora, there was a progressive decrease in poor fen species and an associated increase in woodland species, which appeared to be related to an increase in canopy cover and therefore shade. The most diverse community was found to be the most recent willow and was dominated by poor fen species. The oldest willow was the second most diverse and was associated with a reduction in poor fen species and an increase in woodland species. Architectural features were used successfully to assess the general condition and structure of willow. Tree height and DBH were identified as useful parameters to accurately assess willow age in the field. The implications of active intervention to remove willow in order to conserve the full range of communities within the hydrosere are discussed.  相似文献   
8.
《Current biology : CB》2020,30(19):3833-3840.e4
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9.
Orthotrichum patens is reported new to Britain from two sites in the counties of Suffolk and Derbyshire. Previous reports of this species in Britain are thought to be based on O. affine; they date from the nineteenth century at a time when the structure of the stomata was not recognised as significant. Orthotrichum patens is described and illustrated, and its diagnostic characters are discussed. Some comments are included on changes in the epiphytic bryophyte flora in Britain in recent decades.  相似文献   
10.
Nitrogen (N) fixation in moss‐associated cyanobacteria is one of the main sources of available N for N‐limited ecosystems such as subarctic tundra. Yet, N2 fixation in mosses is strongly influenced by soil moisture and temperature. Thus, temporal scaling up of low‐frequency in situ measurements to several weeks, months or even the entire growing season without taking into account changes in abiotic conditions cannot capture the variation in moss‐associated N2 fixation. We therefore aimed to estimate moss‐associated N2 fixation throughout the snow‐free period in subarctic tundra in field experiments simulating climate change: willow (Salix myrsinifolia) and birch (Betula pubescens spp. tortuosa) litter addition, and warming. To achieve this, we established relationships between measured in situ N2 fixation rates and soil moisture and soil temperature and used high‐resolution measurements of soil moisture and soil temperature (hourly from May to October) to model N2 fixation. The modelled N2 fixation rates were highest in the warmed (2.8 ± 0.3 kg N ha?1) and birch litter addition plots (2.8 ± 0.2 kg N ha?1), and lowest in the plots receiving willow litter (1.6 ± 0.2 kg N ha?1). The control plots had intermediate rates (2.2 ± 0.2 kg N ha?1). Further, N2 fixation was highest during the summer in the warmed plots, but was lowest in the litter addition plots during the same period. The temperature and moisture dependence of N2 fixation was different between the climate change treatments, indicating a shift in the N2 fixer community. Our findings, using a combined empirical and modelling approach, suggest that a longer snow‐free period and increased temperatures in a future climate will likely lead to higher N2 fixation rates in mosses. Yet, the consequences of increased litter fall on moss‐associated N2 fixation due to shrub expansion in the Arctic will depend on the shrub species’ litter traits.  相似文献   
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