中国西北干旱区蒸散发时空动态特征

利用MODIS ET数据集中2000—2014年的地表实际蒸散发量产品,运用变异系数、Theil-Sen median趋势分析与MannKendall检验和Hurst指数法,研究了中国西北干旱区蒸散发的空间格局、不同维度的空间异质性和时间变化特征及未来趋势预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2014年全区蒸散发量总体较小,蒸散发量小于200 mm的区域占总面积的38.329%。在空间上ET自山区向两侧平原减少,不同土地覆盖的ET大小为:林地农用地草地稀疏植被。受降水和土地覆盖的综合影响,ET的高值区(400 mm)主要在降水丰富的山区林地和草地,而低值区(200 mm)主要在降水较少的平原稀疏植被区和草地。(2)近15年全区蒸散发变异程度不明显,以相对较低的波动变化为主。各亚区内波动较低区域的比例为:北疆天山祁连山内蒙西部河西走廊南疆。(3)15年间全区年均蒸散发量呈波动变化,总体有微弱的减小趋势,变化率为-0.9348 mm/a。基于像元尺度的分析也表明全区ET以减小的变化趋势为主,但各亚区的减小程度各异:天山内蒙西部河西走廊北疆祁连山,仅南疆有增加趋势。(4)全区ET的Hurst指数均值为0.689,Hurst指数大于0.5的范围所占比例为80.033%,未来全区蒸散发的变化趋势以持续性减小为主。其中22.003%区域的变化趋势无法确定。未来各亚区ET的减少趋势为:内蒙西部天山河西走廊北疆祁连山南疆。     

Occupancy in dynamic systems: accounting for multiple scales and false positives using environmental DNA to inform monitoring

Occupancy is an important metric to understand current and future trends in populations that have declined globally. In addition, occupancy can be an efficient tool for conducting landscape-scale and long-term monitoring. A challenge for occupancy monitoring programs is to determine the appropriate spatial scale of analysis and to obtain precise occupancy estimates for elusive species. We used a multi-scale occupancy model to assess occupancy of Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin, USA, based on environmental DNA (eDNA) detections. We collected three replicate eDNA samples at 220 sites across the Great Basin. We estimated and modeled ecological factors that described watershed and site occupancy at multiple spatial scales simultaneously while accounting for imperfect detection. Additionally, we conducted visual and dipnet surveys at all sites and used our paired detections to estimate the probability of a false positive detection for our eDNA sampling. We applied the estimated false positive rate to our multi-scale occupancy dataset and assessed changes in model selection. We had higher naïve occupancy estimates for eDNA (0.37) than for traditional survey methods (0.20). We estimated our false positive detection rate per qPCR replicate at 0.023 (95% CI: 0.016–0.033). When the false positive rate was applied to the multi-scale dataset, we did not observe substantial changes in model selection or parameter estimates. Conservation and resource managers have an increasing need to understand species occupancy in highly variable landscapes where the spatial distribution of habitat changes significantly over time due to climate change and human impact. A multi-scale occupancy approach can be used to obtain regional occupancy estimates that can account for spatially dynamic differences in availability over time, especially when assessing potential declines. Additionally, this study demonstrates how eDNA can be used as an effective tool for improved occupancy estimates across broad geographic scales for long-term monitoring.     

In and out: Effects of shoot- vs. rooted-presence sampling methods on plant diversity measures in mountain grasslands

Plant diversity measures (e.g., alpha- and beta-diversity) provide the basis for a number of ecological indication and monitoring methods. These measures are based on species counts in sampling units (plots or quadrats). However, there are two alternative conventions for defining a vascular plant species as “present” in a plot, i.e. “shoot presence” (a species is recorded if the vertical projection of any above-ground part falls within the plot) and “rooted presence” (a species is recorded only when an individual is rooted inside the plot). Very few studies addressed the effects of the two sampling conventions on species richness and diversity indices. We sampled mountain dry grasslands in Italy across different plot sizes and vegetation types to assess how large is the difference in alpha- and beta-diversity values and in sample-based rarefaction curves between the two methods. We found that the difference is greatly dependent on plot size, being more relevant, both in absolute and percentage values, at smaller grain; it is also dependent on habitat type, being larger in shallow-soil communities, as they have a sparser vegetation structure and host life-form types with a larger lateral spread. At fine spatial scales (<1 m²) the difference is large enough to bias statistical inference, and we conclude that at such scales one should not attempt to compare plant diversity indices if they were not obtained with the same sampling convention.     

Importance of fire in influencing the occurrence of snakes in an upland region of arid Australia

In arid Australia, changes to historic fire regimes may now produce more large‐scale wildfire events. The impacts of these fires on fauna communities are poorly known. We sought to test the impacts of fire on the occurrence of two arid‐zone snake species, the desert death adder (Acanthophis pyrrhus) and monk snake (Parasuta monachus), specialist inhabitants of hummock grassland and mulga shrubland, respectively. We also examined the influence of fire on the occurrence of a habitat generalist, the sympatric Stimson's python (Antaresia stimsoni). Under an Information‐Theoretic framework we modelled the occurrence of each species with a range of habitat variables, including fire history, using logistic regression. As predicted, the two habitat specialists were more likely to be encountered at locations that had a lower percentage of surrounding area burnt in the most recent wildfires (2002), while fire variables failed to predict the occurrence of the habitat generalist. Acanthophis pyrrhus, already predisposed to endangerment through a suite of life‐history characteristics, may be at increased risk through accidental and deliberate burning and fragmentation of old‐growth hummock grasslands. We stress the importance of prescribed burning and natural fire breaks in maintaining areas of old‐growth hummock grassland across the landscape.