Spatial and temporal variation in population trends in a long‐distance migratory bird

Aim Over the past three decades, evidence has been growing that many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird populations have suffered sustained and severe declines. As causes of these declines exist across both the breeding and non‐breeding season, identifying potential drivers of population change is complex. In order to explore the roles of changes in regional and local environmental conditions on population change, we examine spatial and temporal variation in population trajectories of one of Europe’s most abundant Afro‐Palaearctic summer migrants, the willow warbler, Phylloscopus trochilus. Location Britain and Ireland. Methods We use national survey data from Britain and Ireland (BBS: BTO/RSPB/JNCC Breeding Bird Survey and CBS: BWI/NPWS/Heritage Council Countryside Breeding Survey) from 1994 to 2006 to model the spatial and temporal variation in willow warbler population trends. Results Across Britain and Ireland, population trends follow a gradient from sharp declines in the south and east of England to shallow declines and/or slight increases in parts of north and west England, across Scotland and Ireland. Decreasing the spatial scale of analysis reveals variation in both the rate and spatial extent of population change within central England and the majority of Scotland. The rates of population change also vary temporally; declines in the south of England are shallower now than at the start of the time series, whereas populations further north in Britain have undergone periods of increase and decline. Main conclusion These patterns suggest that regional‐scale drivers, such as changing climatic conditions, and local‐scale processes, such as habitat change, are interacting to produce spatially variable population trends. We discuss the potential mechanisms underlying these interactions and the challenges in addressing such changes at scales relevant to migratory species.     

Multiple selection pressures generate adherence to Bergmann's rule in a Neotropical migratory songbird

Aim Bergmann's rule, the tendency for body size to be positively correlated with latitude, is widely accepted but the mechanisms behind the patterns are still debated. Bergmann's originally conceived mechanism was based on heat conservation; other proposed mechanisms invoke phylogeny, migration distance and resource seasonality. With the goal of examining these mechanisms, we quantified morphological variation across the breeding range of a Neotropical migratory songbird, the cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea). Location Deciduous forests of eastern North America. Methods We sampled nine cerulean warbler populations, spanning the species’ breeding range. We captured 156 males using targeted playback and model presentation, and included 127 adult males in our analyses of morphological variation. We used an information‐theoretical approach to identify climatic variables associated with geographical variation in body size. Results Cerulean warbler body size adheres to Bergmann's rule: individuals in northern populations are larger than those in southern populations. Variation in body size is best explained by variation in dry and wet‐bulb temperature and actual evapotranspiration. Main conclusions Adherence to Bergmann's rule by the cerulean warbler appears to be linked to thermodynamics (heat conservation in the north, evaporative cooling in the south) and resource seasonality. Multiple selection pressures can interact to generate a single axis of morphological geographical variation, and even subtle fluctuations in climatic variables can exert significant selection pressures. We suggest that the influence of selection pressures on migrants might be enhanced by migratory connectivity, providing further support for the important role played by this phenomenon in the ecology, evolution and population dynamics of migratory songbirds.     

Effects of the winter beechmast crop on bird occurrence in British gardens

Capsule Woodland birds were significantly less likely to occur in gardens in years of high beechmast crop.

Aim To test the hypothesis that woodland species that feed on beechmast will have significantly lower occurrence rates at garden feeders in mast years.

Methods Weekly winter occurrence rates at garden feeders between 1970/71 and 1999/2000 for 40 species were analysed in relation to annual beechmast abundance, classified into low, medium and high years. A repeated-measures logistic regression model was used to assess whether beechmast abundance explained further significant variation additional to underlying seasonal and annual trends.

Results Seven species that commonly feed on beechmast showed significantly lower occurrence in gardens in years of highest beechmast abundance: Great Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos major, Woodpigeon Columba palumbus, Great Tit Parus major, Coal Tit Periparus ater, Nuthatch Sitta europaea, Jay Garrulus glandarius and Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs. Blackbird Turdus merula and Siskin Carduelis spinus, which showed similar significant patterns, are likely to take beechmast as elements of their diet. Pied Wagtail Motacilla alba was the only insectivorous species to show significant effects, but occurrence was lowest in years of intermediate beechmast abundance. For the latter species, this may have been due to confounding effects of temperature, but there were no such confounding effects of either temperature, or the number of bird feeders provided in gardens, for the other nine species.

Conclusion Use of artificial food sources by birds in gardens is influenced by resources in the surrounding countryside, suggesting that food provided in gardens may play a significant part in the population dynamics of these species, that population monitoring without consideration of the garden habitat may be deficient, and that volunteer-based garden bird recording may provide data that can be used as an indicator of changes in the wider countryside.     

Reducing the conservation reliance of the endangered Kirtland's warbler through adaptive management

Species are considered conservation-reliant when their continued existence is dependent on human assistance. Conservation reliance challenges the conservation community in terms of their ability to sustain the funding and public-private partnerships needed for indefinite management. Although increased funding for conservation is critical, reducing conservation reliance through adaptive management represents an attractive alternative. We used a large-scale ecological experiment as a case study in the use of adaptive management to reduce conservation reliance. For >40 years, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has trapped and lethally removed an obligate brood parasite, the brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater), to protect the Kirtland's warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) from the negative effects that brood parasitism has on its reproductive success. To determine if the conservation reliance of the Kirtland's warbler could be reduced through optimization of the cowbird control program, we used an adaptive management approach. In collaboration with stakeholders, we experimentally reduced cowbird trapping effort across nearly all of the Kirtland's warbler breeding range. We monitored the resulting cowbird abundance and rate of parasitism, and then adjusted the scale of trap reductions based on the previous year's results. Despite reducing (2015–2017) and eventually eliminating (2018) cowbird trapping, we detected only 20 cowbirds (2015–2017) and found that just 4 of 514 (<1%) nests were parasitized (2015–2018). Our results indicate that the cowbird control program can at least temporarily be suspended, thereby reducing conservation reliance in the Kirtland's warbler and freeing funds for other management. We urge the conservation community to consider the use of adaptive management to reduce conservation reliance in other threatened and endangered taxa. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Adult and hatch-year blackpoll warblers exhibit radically different regional-scale movements during post-fledging dispersal

Using a broad-scale automated telemetry array, we explored post-fledging movements of blackpoll warblers breeding in Atlantic Canada. We sought to determine the full spatial scale of post-fledging dispersal, to assess support for three hypotheses for regional-scale post-fledging movement, and to determine whether learning influenced movement during this period. We demonstrated that both young and adults moved over distances more than 200 km prior to initiating migration. Adults moved southwest, crossing the Gulf of Maine (GOM), consistent with the commencement of migration hypothesis. Hatch-year birds exhibited less directional movements constrained geographically by the GOM. Their movements were most consistent with exploration hypotheses—that young birds develop a regional-scale map to aid in habitat selection, natal dispersal and subsequent migrations.     

Ecological species groups of landform-level ecosystems dominated by jack pine in northern Lower Michigan,USA

A combination of field and tabular methods and multivariate analyses were used to develop groups of ground flora species (i.e., ecological species groups) that characterize and distinguish highly disturbed, landform-level ecosystems dominated by jack pine in northern Lower Michigan. The endangered Kirtland's warbler formerly or currently occupied the large glacial landforms for which species groups were developed. Eight such ecological species groups were created using 31 woody and herbaceous species sampled in 144 plots within a 20,000 km² geographic region of uniform climate and regional physiography. The groups were initially constructed using subjective, observation-based groupings of species with similar presence and abundance along soil moisture and fertility gradients. Species groups were corroborated using TWINSPAN and detrended correspondence analysis, and the environmental conditions indicated by each were described and contrasted based upon field observations and canonical correspondence analysis. Two of the eight species groups indicated very dry, infertile sites, and one was indicative of a very broad range of sites dominated by jack pine. The remaining five groups reflected a relatively gentle environmental gradient within the set of ecosystems we sampled, indicating small differences along a soil moisture gradient and less so along a soil fertility and light availability gradient. The groups were applied successfully for the majority of an area that had been repeatedly logged and/or burned for at least 120 years. In addition, the groups were successful when tested on sites with highly disturbed upper soil strata furrowed for the establishment of plantations between the 1960s and 1980s. Within the boundaries of the regional ecosystems for which they were developed, ecological species groups reflect the integrated effects of multiple site factors that control the height growth rates of jack pine trees that, in turn, determine the duration of Kirtland's warbler occupancy. While usually applied at the scale of ecosystem types, our results demonstrate that ecological species groups may also provide the ecological basis for distinguishing ecosystems at broader scales. When examined simultaneously in the field with physiography, microclimate, and soil factors, the groups are therefore useful in identifying and classifying ecosystem units at the scale of landforms, the appropriate scale of management for the Kirtland's warbler.     

Ring species as bridges between microevolution and speciation

A demonstration of how small changes can lead to species-level differences is provided by ring species, in which two reproductively isolated forms are connected by a chain of intermediate populations. We review proposed cases of ring species and the insights they provide into speciation. Ring species have been viewed both as illustrations of the history of divergence of two species from their common ancestor and as demonstrations that speciation can occur in spite of gene flow between the diverging forms. Theoretical models predict that speciation with gene flow can occur when there is divergent ecological selection, and geographical differentiation increases the likelihood of speciation. Thus ring species are ideal systems for research into the role of both ecological and geographical differentiation in speciation, but few examples have been studied in detail. The Greenish warbler is a ring species in which two northward expansions around the Tibetan plateau have been accompanied by parallel evolution in morphology, ecology, and song length and complexity. However, songs have diverged in structure, resulting in a lack of recognition where the reproductively isolated forms come into contact in Siberia. Our analysis suggests that these differences could have arisen even with gene flow, and that parallel rather than divergent ecological changes have led to divergence in sexually selected traits and subsequent speciation.