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1.
One of the first questions that paleontologists ask when they identify a large-scale trend in the fossil record (e.g., size increase, complexity increase) is whether it is passive or driven. In this article, I explore two questions about driven trends: (1) what is the underlying cause or source of the directional bias? and (2) has the strength of the directional bias changed over time? I identify two underdetermination problems that prevent scientists from giving complete answers to these two questions.  相似文献   
2.
We propose in this work a novel approach aiming at assessing cause and effect relationships between variables that can affect target biodiversity issues. These cause–effect relations are used to build a network whose nodes represent variables linked by directed arcs. The arcs have associated a value that represents trends of cause–effect relations. An important novelty of this approach is the use of product and addition operations between trends of cause–effect relations for assessing factors that can affect target variables. For the analysis of the network we use the concept of paths. Paths are defined as sequences of cause–effect relations from source variables to target variables. For example, the path from population increment that causes effects on the increment of transport routes, which in turn causes effects on the loss of vegetation cover. This approach was applied to the assessment of vegetation cover in the Morelos State, México during the period 2000–2010. The results show a promising practical alternative to assess the potential effects on biodiversity issues based on the analysis of the paths represented in the network.  相似文献   
3.
BackgroundTo provide a comprehensive assessment of women cancer in India utilizing the systematically collected data on all cancers by the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP).MethodsThe study examined 10,2287 cancer cases among women cancers providing cancer burden for major anatomical sites. Aggregated data of 28 PBCRs and 58 HBCRs under NCRP for 2012–16 was analysed for incidence rates, trends, cumulative risk of developing cancer, stage at detection and treatments offered.ResultsStudy results have found region –wide variation of women cancers by indicating highest proportions in western followed by southern region of India. North-Eastern region had lowest proportion. It was observed that breast is highest ranking cancer in most registry areas of urban agglomerations of country while cancer cervix was leading site in registries of rural areas like Barshi (15.3) and Osmanabad &Beed (13.1). States of Mizoram (23.2) and Tripura (9.5) along with Pasighat, Cachar and Nagaland. Median age of occurrence for women for these anatomical sites ranged from 45 to 60 years of age. For cancer breast, cervix and ovary –most cases were detected with regional spread. These findings were different for cancer corpus uteri where registries have reported higher proportions (49.3 %) of localized stage at detection. Loco regional cancers had higher proportions of multimodality treatments.ConclusionStudy provides a foundation for assessing the status of women cancers in the country. Variations between geographies would guide appropriate support for action to strengthen efforts to improve cancer prevention and control in underserved areas of the country. This would facilitate advocacy for better investments and research on women cancers.  相似文献   
4.
Introduction Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a risk and prognostic factor for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Determining whether the incidence of HPV-associated OPC is rising informs health policy. Methods HPV status was ascribed using p16 immunohistochemistry in 683/1474 OPC patients identified from the Princess Margaret Hospital's Cancer Registry (from 2000 to 2010). Missing p16 data was estimated using multiple (n = 100) imputation (MI) and validated using an independent OPC cohort (n = 214). Non-OPC head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) (n = 3262) were also used for time-trend comparison. Regression was used to compare HNSCC subsets and time-trends. The c-index was used to measure the predictive ability of MI. Results The incidence of OPC rose from 23.3% of all HNSCC in 2000 to 31.2% in 2010 (p = 0.002). In the subset of OPC tested for p16, there was no change in p16 positivity over time (p = 0.9). However, p16 testing became more frequent over time (p < 0.0001), but was nonetheless biased, favouring never-smokers [OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.29–2.70)] and tumors of the tonsil [OR 2.30 (1.52–3.47)] or base-of-tongue [OR 1.72 (1.10–2.70)]. These same factors were also associated with p16-positivity [ORs 3.22 (1.27–8.16), 7.26 (3.50–15.1), 5.83 (2.70–12.7), respectively]. Following MI and normalization, the proportion of OPC that was p16-associated rose from 39.8% in 2000 to 65.0% in 2010, p = 0.002, fully explaining the rise in OPC in our patient population. Conclusion The rise in HNSCC referrals seen from 2000 to 2010 at our institution was driven primarily by p16-associated OPC. MI was necessary to derive reliable conclusions when cases with missing data are considerable.  相似文献   
5.
BackgroundChanges in endometrial cancer incidence rates after the precipitous decline in menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use in 2002 have not been evaluated.MethodsUsing data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program from 1992 to 2009 (SEER 13), we identified 63 428 incident endometrial cancer cases among women ages 20–74. We compared annual percent change (APC) in endometrial cancer incidence rates from 1992 to 2002 to rates from 2003 to 2009.ResultsIn contrast to the constant endometrial cancer rate pattern observed from 1992 to 2002 (APC 0.0%), rates increased after 2002 in women 50–74 years old (2.5%; PAPC comparison < 0.01). Endometrial cancer incidence increased over the entire time period among women ages 20–49 (1992–2002: 1.1%; 2003–2009: 2.1%; PAPC comparison = 0.21). Post-2002 increases in incidence among women ages 50–74 were specific to Type I endometrial tumors (1992–2002: ?0.6%; 2003–2009: 1.6%; PAPC comparison < 0.01).DiscussionThe increase in endometrial cancer incidence rates after 2002 may be related to the widespread decrease in estrogen plus progestin MHT use, which has been reported to lower endometrial cancer risk in overweight and obese women.  相似文献   
6.
BackgroundSome case-control studies have suggested substantial increased risks of glioma in association with mobile phone use; these risks would lead to an increase in incidence over time.MethodsIncidence rates of glioma from 1995 to 2020 by age, sex, and site in New Zealand (NZ) recorded by the national cancer registry were assessed and trends analysed. Phone use was based on surveys.ResultsIn these 25 years there were 6677 incident gliomas, giving age-standardised rates (WHO world standard) of 6.04 in males, and 3.95 in females per 100,000. The use of mobile phones increased rapidly from 1990 to more than 50% of the population from about 2000, and almost all the population from 2006. The incidence of glioma from ages 10–69 has shown a small decrease over the last 25 years, during which time the use of mobile phones has become almost universal. Rates in the brain locations receiving most radiofrequency energy have also shown a small decrease. Rates at ages of 80 and over have increased.ConclusionThere is no indication of any increase related to the use of mobile phones. These results are similar to results in Australia and in many other countries. The increase in recorded incidence at ages over 80 is similar to that seen in other countries and consistent with improved diagnostic methods.  相似文献   
7.
IndiSeas (“Indicators for the Seas”) is a collaborative international working group that was established in 2005 to evaluate the status of exploited marine ecosystems using a suite of indicators in a comparative framework. An initial shortlist of seven ecological indicators was selected to quantify the effects of fishing on the broader ecosystem using several criteria (i.e., ecological meaning, sensitivity to fishing, data availability, management objectives and public awareness). The suite comprised: (i) the inverse coefficient of variation of total biomass of surveyed species, (ii) mean fish length in the surveyed community, (iii) mean maximum life span of surveyed fish species, (iv) proportion of predatory fish in the surveyed community, (v) proportion of under and moderately exploited stocks, (vi) total biomass of surveyed species, and (vii) mean trophic level of the landed catch. In line with the Nagoya Strategic Plan of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2011–2020), we extended this suite to emphasize the broader biodiversity and conservation risks in exploited marine ecosystems. We selected a subset of indicators from a list of empirically based candidate biodiversity indicators initially established based on ecological significance to complement the original IndiSeas indicators. The additional selected indicators were: (viii) mean intrinsic vulnerability index of the fish landed catch, (ix) proportion of non-declining exploited species in the surveyed community, (x) catch-based marine trophic index, and (xi) mean trophic level of the surveyed community. Despite the lack of data in some ecosystems, we also selected (xii) mean trophic level of the modelled community, and (xiii) proportion of discards in the fishery as extra indicators. These additional indicators were examined, along with the initial set of IndiSeas ecological indicators, to evaluate whether adding new biodiversity indicators provided useful additional information to refine our understanding of the status evaluation of 29 exploited marine ecosystems. We used state and trend analyses, and we performed correlation, redundancy and multivariate tests. Existing developments in ecosystem-based fisheries management have largely focused on exploited species. Our study, using mostly fisheries independent survey-based indicators, highlights that biodiversity and conservation-based indicators are complementary to ecological indicators of fishing pressure. Thus, they should be used to provide additional information to evaluate the overall impact of fishing on exploited marine ecosystems.  相似文献   
8.
The hydrological and thermal changes in the Loire River were investigated to test the influence of climatic changes on a short freshwater stage anadromous fish species, Allis shad, for the 1995–2004 period. The mean water temperatures during the adult migration and juvenile growth phases showed significant increase, and mean water flow during these two phases decreased significantly. The period below the threshold of 18°C shortened, and the period between 18°C and the maximum lengthened, while the temperature amounts (number of degree-days) received by aquatic organisms between 18 and 24°C showed an increase. The pattern of young-of-the-year downstream migration was modified. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 5% occurred 17 days earlier at the end of the 1995–2004 period than at the beginning. The first day when the juvenile catches reached 50% was related to the 18°C threshold (reproductive threshold) and the temperature amounts accumulated between the 18 and 20°C thresholds. The year-on-year levels of young-of-the-year abundance showed wide variations, which were not explained by environmental parameters, probably because of the long distance between the study site and the spawning grounds.
C. BoisneauEmail:
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9.
In order to examine the impacts of both large-scale and small-scale climate changes (urban climate effect) on the development of plants, long-term observations of four spring phenophases from ten central European regions (Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Frankfurt, Munich, Prague, Vienna, Zurich, Basle and Chur) were analysed. The objective of this study was to identify and compare the differences in the starting dates of the pre-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the snowdrop (Galanthus nivalis) and forsythia (Forsythia sp.), and of the full-spring phenophases, the beginning of flowering of the sweet cherry (Prunus avium) and apple (Malus domestica), in urban and rural areas. The results indicate that, despite regional differences, in nearly all cases the species studied flower earlier in urbanised areas than in the corresponding rural areas. The forcing in urban areas was about 4 days for the pre-spring phenophases and about 2 days for the full-spring phenophases. The analysis of trends for the period from 1951 to 1995 showed tendencies towards an earlier flowering in all regions, but only 22% were significant at the 5% level. The trends for the period from 1980 to 1995 were much stronger for all regions and phases: the pre-spring phenophases on average became earlier by 13.9 days/decade in the urban areas and 15.3 days/decade in the rural areas, while the full-spring phenophases were 6.7 days earlier/decade in the urban areas and 9.1 days/decade earlier in the rural areas. Thus rural areas showed a higher trend towards an earlier flowering than did urban areas for the period from 1980 to 1995. However, these trends, especially for the pre-spring phenophases, turned out to be extremely variable. Received: 21 October 1999 / Revised: 5 April 2000 / Accepted: 25 April 2000  相似文献   
10.
BackgroundAn increasing trend of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) has been reported in several countries with different demographic characteristics, and often attributed to increases in human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The survival of patients with OPC has steadily improved, especially for those with positive HPV status. This study assessed the incidence, trends, and survival of OPC in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) by age at diagnosis, sex and ethnicity.MethodsThe study included all 2109 patients resident in NZ with a primary diagnosis of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma from 2006 to 2020, identified from the National Cancer Registry. We assessed age-standardised incidence rate (ASR), annual percent change (APC) and overall and relative survival rates.ResultsThe average annual incidence of OPC was 2.2 per 100,000 population. There was a steady increase of 4.9% per year over 15 years. Although the incidence rates were higher in males over the study period, the overall rate of increase was similar in males (4.9%) and in females (4.3%). The incidence was highest in the 50–69-year group (8.8/100,000 population). This age group had an incidence that increased by 7.5% per year to 2018, and then declined. The main increase in rates was seen between the birth cohort of 1946–50 and that of 1956–60. The increase in incidence was seen in Māori and Pākehā/European populations, but no increase was seen in Pacific or Asian populations. The 5-year overall relative survival rate improved from 69% in 2006‐13 to 78% in 2014–20. Survival rates were lower in older patients, females, and Māori patients.ConclusionThis study confirmed a substantial increase in OPC incidence in NZ, with some evidence to suggest a recent slowing in this increase. Māori and Pākehā/European had the highest incidence, while Pacific and Asian populations showed the lowest rates and no increase over the study period. Survival rates have improved over time, but remained lower in some demographic groups.  相似文献   
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