On the use of partial area under the ROC curve for comparison of two diagnostic tests

Evaluation of diagnostic performance is typically based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) as its summary index. The partial area under the curve (pAUC) is an alternative index focusing on the range of practical/clinical relevance. One of the problems preventing more frequent use of the pAUC is the perceived loss of efficiency in cases of noncrossing ROC curves. In this paper, we investigated statistical properties of comparisons of two correlated pAUCs. We demonstrated that outside of the classic model there are practically reasonable ROC types for which comparisons of noncrossing concave curves would be more powerful when based on a part of the curve rather than the entire curve. We argue that this phenomenon stems in part from the exclusion of noninformative parts of the ROC curves that resemble straight‐lines. We conducted extensive simulation studies in families of binormal, straight‐line, and bigamma ROC curves. We demonstrated that comparison of pAUCs is statistically more powerful than comparison of full AUCs when ROC curves are close to a “straight line”. For less flat binormal ROC curves an increase in the integration range often leads to a disproportional increase in pAUCs’ difference, thereby contributing to an increase in statistical power. Thus, efficiency of differences in pAUCs of noncrossing ROC curves depends on the shape of the curves, and for families of ROC curves that are nearly straight‐line shaped, such as bigamma ROC curves, there are multiple practical scenarios in which comparisons of pAUCs are preferable.     

9. The algal flora of the Primorsky Region, Russian Far East

A survey of the freshwater algal flora of the Primorsky Region, Russian Far East, is presented. During more than 70 years of investigations 1659 species (including varieties and forms 2276 taxa) belonging to 346 genera of different groups of algae have been recorded from this territory. The Primorsky Region is rich in habitats attractive to algae-rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and ponds. The details of the distribution of algae in different types of waterbodies have been examined. The algal flora of the region is comparable to the areas, and its taxonomical structure is typical for Eurasia. From this territory some new species and varieties have been described — Achnanthes chankensis, Cymbella ventricosa var. hankensis, Surirella alisoviana, and others. The flora includes some rare species — Fragilaria magocsyi, Perone dimorpha, and Heterothrix monochloron, and some endemics of Asia — Navicula scutelloides var. baicalensis, N. globulifera var. nipponica, Gomphonema sphaerophorum, and Surirella tientsinensis.     

Life history patterns of river invertebrates

The initiation of invertebrate distribution patterns in rivers occurs by choice of oviposition sites and is influenced by the evolved reproductive strategies of the individual species. Subsequent redistribution by migration or drifting establishes patterns which are then modified by environmental influences on growth and mortality. Continuity of life cycles is sustained by variations on a number of defined life history strategies combined with evolved behavioural responses.     

Increased abundance of native and non-native spiders with habitat fragmentation

Habitat fragmentation and invasive species often contribute to the decline of native taxa. Since the penetration of non‐native species into natural habitat may be facilitated by habitat fragmentation, it is important to examine how these two factors interact. Previous research documented that, in contrast to most other arthropod taxa, spiders increased in density and morphospecies richness with decreasing fragment area and increasing fragment age (time since insularization) in urban habitat fragments in San Diego County, California, USA. We tested whether a specific mechanism, an increase in non‐native species with fragmentation, is responsible for this pattern. We found that both native and non‐native taxa contributed to the pattern. Abundance of native spiders per pitfall trap sample increased significantly with decreasing fragment size (i.e. a negative density–area relationship) and abundance of non‐natives increased significantly with increasing fragment age. The proportion of non‐native individuals also increased significantly with age. One non‐native species, Oecobius navus, comprised the majority of non‐native individuals (82.2%) and a significant proportion of total individuals (25.1%). Richness of spider families per sample (family density) increased with fragment age due to an increase in the occurrence of non‐natives in older fragments, however, native family richness did not vary with age or area. Due to increasing dominance by non‐native and some native families, family evenness declined with decreasing fragment size and increasing fragment age. Native and non‐native abundance covaried positively arguing against strong negative interactions between the two groups. O. navus had a strong positive association with another common non‐native arthropod, the Argentine ant (Linepitheme humile), suggesting a possible direct interaction. In contrast, abundance of native spiders was negatively correlated with Argentine ant abundance. We hypothesize that fragmentation in this semiarid habitat increases productivity in smaller and older fragments enhancing the density of both native and non‐native taxa.     

Spatial clumping of food increases its monopolization and defense by convict cichlids, Cichlasoma nigrofasciatum

The hypothesis that resource monopolization and defense increaseas the spatial clumping of resources increases was tested usinggroups of three convict cichlids competing for 120 Daphnia magnaprey. Spatial clumping was manipulated by varying the distance(3, 20, or 40 cm) between three tubes through which the preyappeared. As predicted, monopolization of prey (percentage eatenby the dominant fish) and frequency of aggression (chases perminute) by dominant fish increased significantly as the distancebetween the tubes decreased. However, there was no evidenceof individual flexibility in the aggressiveness (percentageof conspecifics chased) of dominant fish across treatments.Differences among dominant fish in aggressiveness were positivelycorrelated with their ability to monopolize prey, but the strengthof the correlation decreased as the distance between the tubesincreased. Aggression appears to be a more effective mechanismof interference competition when resources are clumped thanwhen resources are dispersed.     

气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟

中国梧桐属（Firmiana）在世界梧桐属中占比较大，且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种，灭绝风险大，研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据，基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵（Maxent）模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区，得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明：（1）梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲；（2） Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值均大于0.9，表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度；（3）气候变化影响下除云南梧桐（Firmiana major）外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大；（4）中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向，南北向大跨度迁移较少，纬度变化不大；（5）丹霞梧桐（Firmiana danxiaensis）的稳定潜在适生区最小；（6）中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区；（7）中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部；（8）梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态，可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议，为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。     

Status and Breeding Sites of Three Presumed Endangered Scottish Saproxylic Syrphids (Diptera, Syrphidae)

From 1987 to 1999 efforts were made to understand the status and breeding sites of three presumed endangered flies in Britain: Blera fallax (Linnaeus), Hammerschmidtia ferruginea (Fallén) and Callicera rufa Schummel (Diptera, Syrphidae). Historical data on flight periods, localities and breeding sites were collated from the literature and captured specimens in museums and other collections. Using these data, life cycles were investigated, and cited and other localities searched for adults and early stages. Looking for early stages was more productive than looking for adults. B. fallax is the most endangered. It has declined in abundance, is restricted to two localities and, in 1999, breeding sites were destroyed at one of these localities. In contrast C. rufa is widespread and not uncommon throughout northern Scotland. H. ferruginea is not as endangered as B. fallax but adverse factors such as habitat destruction affect most of its sites.     

Molecular variation and speciation in Antitrichia curtipendula s.l. (Leucodontaceae, Bryophyta)

Molecular variation in Antitrichia curtipendula (Hedw.) Brid. s.l. was studied based on the nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and the chloroplast markers trn L- trn F and rpl 16, and analysed by neighbour joining (for ITS; recombination present), maximum parsimony (chloroplast markers) and TCS (haplotype network). Old World plus E North American populations belong to a different lineage than those of W North America. These are molecularly well differentiated and are treated as A. curtipendula and A. gigantea (Sull. & Lesq.) Kindb. Two distinct groups of Old World haplotypes are separated by one 'missing' haplotype and are interpreted as cryptic species. Tropical African populations share one ITS deletion and form a lineage within one of the cryptic species. Molecular variation within A. gigantea , within each of the two cryptic Old World plus E North American (except tropical African) haplotype groups, and among tropical African populations are of similar magnitude, suggesting that analogous mechanisms and similar time spans explain the found variation. Events related to Pleistocene climatic oscillations are suggested as having caused this differentiation within each group, whereas the African lineage was probably split off before this. Identical tRNA-Gly sequences were found in 33 specimens; new primers were designed for rpl 16 and ITS 1+2.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 156 , 341–354.     

Spectral composition of shade light in coastal-zone oak forests in SE Bulgaria,and relationships with leaf area index: a first overview

Major knowledge gaps exist with respect to light-quality regimes in the coastal-zone Strandzha Quercus frainetto (Q.f.) forest region adjoining the southern Bulgarian Black Sea. This paper presents preliminary results that help narrow these gaps. In conjunction with leaf area index (LAI) field campaigns we undertook measurements with an array of 7 broad-band (ca 40 nm) sensors covering the range 0.40–0.94 μm, plus 1 sensor for UVB (0.297 μm peak) and 1 for photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Measurements focused on inside-forest shade conditions at sites 0 to ca 15 km from the Black Sea and at altitudes up to ca 120 m above sea level. Some of the sites were also studied using a high-resolution spectroradiometer. A sequential measuring strategy was necessary. This involves potentially large uncertainties, here addressed through estimations of the variability around the sinusoidal course of daylight. Light-quality regimes were found to be in general support of earlier studies of deciduous forests. Our data from the broad-band sensors and from the spectroradiometer are mutually supportive. They indicate a stronger red-shift below Q.f. canopies than below canopies in enclaves dominated by Fagus orientalis and Pinus sylvestris. Transmission in the range 0.50–0.55 μm increases beneath the three types of canopies, most pronounced in the Q.f. case. Analysis of relationships between the inside-forest to open-field irradiance ratio and LAI supports the use of Beer’s Law. We found a fairly strong relationship between the red (0.66 μm) to far-red (0.73 μm) irradiance ratios (R/FR) and LAI for the Q.f. forest. In quantitative terms, the result is new for this Q.f. region, and suggests further research to explore whether a two-sensor approach (0.66 and 0.73 μm) might offer possibilities for further low-cost mapping of the spatio-temporal patterns of R/FR and LAI in Strandzha. Such mapping would assist in further studies of the region’s forest biogeochemistry and vitality.