Analyses of landuse change impacts on catchment runoff using different time indicators based on SWAT model

Previous researches mainly focused on the runoff responses to landuse change based on annual, seasonal or monthly time scales, there are few studies based on daily scale. We conducted a comprehensive investigation into runoff responses on the daily scale as well as annual and monthly time scales using SWAT, and compared the impacts of time scales with different time indicators quantitatively. Jinjiang, a coastal catchment of southeast China with a humid sub-tropical climate, was used for simulations. A calibrated SWAT model produced satisfactory reproduction of annual, monthly and daily runoff processes over a nine-year (2002–2010) period at three gauging stations. Runoff was then simulated and compared using the same meteorological input but two different landuse scenarios (1985 and 2006, with reduced forest and increased cropland and urbanized area). The results showed varying change in runoff among three time scales and three catchments. The annual runoff had the smallest increase between two scenarios, monthly runoffs had medium rates (increasing in all months except October–November), and daily runoff had the largest rates with the increase in flood peaks but decrease in drought flows, because of the variable influence on interception/evapotranspiration loss, percolation and antecedent soil water storage. Indicators of different time scales (annual runoff, monthly runoff, maximum 1-day and 5-day flood runoff, minimum 1-day and 7-day runoff) proved appropriate for analysing landuse change impacts.     

山美水库流域水量水质模拟的SWAT与CE-QUAL-W2联合模型

为更好地模拟分析流域非点源污染对山美水库水质的影响,联合运用流域日尺度分布式水文模型SWAT和二维垂向水动力水质模型CE-QUAL-W2,将SWAT模型的时序输出作为CE-QUAL-W2模型的输入条件,构建了山美水库流域水量水质模拟联合模型,并对流域径流、输沙和污染物以及水库的水位、水温和无机氮等变量进行了率定.结果表明: 尽管受流域部分计算结果的影响,误差会累积到对下游水库水体的计算,但模型的模拟结果与实测数据的吻合程度仍较高,说明联合模型可以较好地反映山美水库流域及库区水体的水动力和污染过程.模型的使用可以为定位流域关键污染源区及控制水库富营养化提供科学依据.     

2008-2014年新疆艾比湖流域土壤水分时空分布特征

传统的土壤水分模拟研究难以从土壤水分变化的时空双向出发表达其连续演变的过程,存在时空尺度效应问题。借助SWAT模型模拟的长时间序列优势,结合高分辨率卫星影像和遥感技术,力图在时空尺度效应问题上取得突破。并利用长时间序列的模拟结果分析流域土壤水分的空间格局和不同维度时空异质性。结果表明：（1）2008-2014年间艾比湖流域土壤水分主要受气温、降水及人类活动影响,呈波动变化,总体偏低且具有逐年减小趋势。（2）受降水、地形及土地覆被影响,土壤水分分布呈现出由山区向两侧平原减少的特点,且林地 > 农用地 > 草地 > 稀疏植被。（3）近10年间土壤水分低值区由原来的北部山区及平原向东部、东南部平原区及南部山区迁移,东部减少最为明显。（4）流域四季土壤水分变化差异显著。其中,春季主要受融雪影响;夏季、秋季主要受降雨量和气温影响;冬季主要受固态降雪和气温影响;且不同年份、相同季节、相同子流域土壤水分变化趋势表现一致。     

SWAT模型在天山林区林冠截留过程中的改进应用

林冠截留是森林生态水文的重要环节,SWAT （Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型对其模拟过程还较为粗糙,为了在流域水文模拟中更精细的刻画林冠截留过程从而得到更佳的模拟结果,以SWAT模型为基础,使用半理论林冠截留模型（Gash模型）与SWAT模型进行耦合,以天山林区为研究区对SWAT模型林冠截留模块进行优化改进。通过对改进前后的模拟结果进行对比分析,结果表明：1） SWAT模型和SWAT-Gash模型的R²分别为0.59-0.83和0.65-0.86,NSE值分别为0.58-0.82和0.63-0.85,两种模型PBIAS为7.2%-17.1%,证明SWAT-Gash模型具有更好的适用性;2）相较于出山口径流数据,SWAT模型和SWAT-Gash模型的RMSD值分别为3.49-7.80 m³/s和3.22-4.68 m³/s,SWAT-Gash模型在校准期和验证期的皮尔逊相关系数分别为0.93和0.81,高于SWAT模型的0.91和0.77;3）基于分位数回归（QR）的不确定性分析表明,SWAT模型和SWAT-Gash模型验证期的P因子分别为0.93和0.96,R因子为1.26和1.19,95%不确定性置信区间平均宽度分别为13.50 m³/s和12.86 m³/s;4） SWAT模型与SWAT-Gash模型在验证期的月平均地表径流量分别为6.55 m³/s和8.50 m³/s,表明在该流域内原始SWAT模型会高估林冠截留量。以天山北坡中段林区为例对云杉森林的林冠截留进行精细化模拟,虽然对模型输入数据要求提高,林冠截留数据的收集增加了模型模拟的不确定性,但对本研究区基于物理过程的水文模拟精度提升明显,改进后模型与出山口实测径流数据一致性更强,可以为天山林区小流域水资源管理提供更可靠的依据。     

基于历史参照系的三江源区径流调节功能及变化评估

以20世纪70年代植被类型图作为参照生态系统,采用径流量和径流系数作为径流调节功能的表征指标,建立了基于历史参照系的三江源区径流调节功能评估模型,以参照系径流系数与实际径流系数的比值作为径流系数质量指数,分析了2000-2017年三江源区生态系统径流调节功能参照值、现状值及变化量的时空变化规律。结果表明：2000-2017年,三江源区多年平均径流量为495.15亿m³,地表径流量为96.64亿m³,参照系条件下多年平均径流量为468.37亿m³,地表径流量为68.60亿m³。相比参照系,三江源区生态系统的径流蓄纳能力降低,总径流量和地表径流量均明显增加。空间上,基于参照系和实际生态系统的多年平均径流量表现为东南高西北低的空间分布特征,地表径流量则呈西部高东部低的空间分布特征。从时间变化看,实际径流和参照系径流的差别率在4%-9%之间,实际地表径流和参照系地表径流的差别率在22%-58%之间。径流系数质量指数得分显示,2000-2017年,三江源区径流系数质量指数平均得分为98.63,地表径流系数质量指数平均得分为96.98,两者均呈现先降低后增加的趋势,地表径流系数质量指数变化更为明显。2000-2017年,各县（镇）径流系数和地表径流系数质量指数得分具有较大差别,但各县（镇）得分变化均不明显,变化率分别在-1.95%-0.71%和-0.35%-1.90%之间。通过建立基于历史生态系统的评估参照系,定量评估了三江源区参照系和实际条件下的径流变化过程,实现了不同时间、不同区域生态系统径流调节功能的可比较,可对量化生态系统恢复进程提供支撑。     

土地覆被变化的水文响应模拟研究

采用近年来快速发展的水文模型模拟的手段,应用SWAT模型模拟了长江上游梭磨河流域不同土地覆被情景下的多年降水径流关系,定量地评估了梭磨河流域的土地覆被变化对径流、蒸发和洪峰流量的影响．结果表明,随着土地覆被状况由无植被到全是有林地覆被,径流深减小,蒸发量增加,枯季径流深减小幅度明显小于雨季的减小幅度,而且雨季初期径流深减小的幅度大于雨季后期．相同的洪水重现期,流域全为有林地覆被的情景比无植被的情景洪峰流量减小31．2％．现状覆被与未来最佳覆被之间在较大洪水上的差别不大,在较小洪水上的差别稍大．     

SWAT模型对景观格局变化的敏感性分析——以丹江口库区老灌河流域为例

景观的空间配置与类型组成能够对流域的产流、产沙及非点源污染产生影响。在以往SWAT模型研究中,往往默认水文模型考虑了该影响。为分析SWAT模型对不同景观格局变化的敏感性,根据老灌河流域2000年土地利用在各子流域的组成,模拟研究区更为破碎、复杂的景观空间配置,通过设置多套试验参数,利用SWAT模型生成基于不同景观格局的模拟结果。结果表明,SWAT模型不能反映除坡度和面积变化之外的景观水平下各斑块之间因景观空间格局改变对流域产流、产沙以及非点源污染的影响;模型通过其他参数的调整,弥补了模型分析数据的不足,使实测数据与模型部分结果高度吻合。这表明,一个能够反映流域部分水文特征的SWAT模型,未必是对研究区真实情形的模拟,而是各个参数间平衡的结果。因此,在利用SWAT模型分析模拟景观变化时,不应默认模型能够模拟景观空间格局改变对流域水文过程的影响,同时研究者可以通过划分坡度带,提高模型对不同坡度土地利用的敏感性。     

Toolbox: Creating a systematic database of secretory pathway proteins uncovers new cargo for COPI

A third of yeast genes encode for proteins that function in the endomembrane system. However, the precise localization for many of these proteins is still uncertain. Here, we visualized a collection of ~500 N‐terminally, green fluorescent protein (GFP), tagged proteins of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. By co‐localizing them with 7 known markers of endomembrane compartments we determined the localization for over 200 of them. Using this approach, we create a systematic database of the various secretory compartments and identify several new residents. Focusing in, we now suggest that Lam5 resides in contact sites between the endoplasmic reticulum and the late Golgi. Additionally, analysis of interactions between the COPI coat and co‐localizing proteins from our screen identifies a subset of proteins that are COPI‐cargo. In summary, our approach defines the protein roster within each compartment enabling characterization of the physical and functional organization of the endomembrane system and its components.      

SWAT模型在气候变化对水资源影响研究中的应用——以河南省中部农业区为例

为了研究气候变化对水资源的影响,应用具有物理基础的SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,针对河南中部农业区(淮河上游沙河周口水文站上游区域)的特点,构建了该区域气候变化影响水资源(径流)评估模型。通过加载1∶4000000电子河系数据,消除了SWAT在平原区从1∶250000 DEM自动提取河系的误差;在对模型参数敏感性分析的基础上,将1999—2002年作为校准期,2003—2006年作为验证期,对模型的参数进行了校准和验证,模型校准期Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数Ens=0.96,r2=0.95,验证期Ens=0.81,r2=0.87,表明模型应用于该区域的月径流模拟精度较高。将1966—2007年的气象资料应用于模型进行模拟,分析结果表明,地表径流、基流年内变化趋势与降水量变化趋势一致,蒸散发是该地区水量的主要输出项,地表径流是基流的2倍左右,地表径流相对于降水有滞后性,基流滞后于降水3个月时间。     

Pathogen Sources Estimation and Scenario Analysis Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

Concerns over water quality in Ireland have increased in recent years, in part due to the more frequent contamination of drinking water by pathogens such as Escherichia coli and Cryptosporidium. The objective of this study was to assess the use of SWAT for pathogen source estimation and to analyze the effects of various source scenarios on pathogen outputs in Irish catchments. Two agricultural catchments in Ireland susceptible to pathogen contamination of source water were the center of the SWAT model development with the primary focus on levels of E. coli in surface water. Model simulations used site and source specific information which was analyzed considering the total E. coli count for the simulation period (Fergus: January 2005–October 2006; Kilshanvey: January 2006–July 2007). Pathogen source estimation identified point sources as the most significant contributors to E. coli output with direct deposition the primary contributor (95%) in Kilshanvey and wastewater treatment plant outflow (89%) the main contributor in the Fergus catchment. A scenario analysis evaluated possible situations that may occur in study locations. The analysis indicated that restriction of livestock access to water sources and improved wastewater treatment would represent effective methods of improving water quality in both catchments.