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人口、富裕及技术对2000年中国水足迹的影响   总被引:35,自引:0,他引:35       下载免费PDF全文
龙爱华  徐中民  王新华  尚海洋 《生态学报》2006,26(10):3358-3365
21世纪水资源短缺问题将成为全球资源环境的首要问题,由于水资源的诸多问题与人类活动密不可分,因此辨明人类活动各因素对水资源影响作用的大小,并依此找寻发展的对策是当前水资源可持续利用研究的一个核心问题.在计算2000年中国的水足迹的基础上,应用STIRPAT模型分析了中国水足迹的影响因素,分解了人口、富裕和技术等对中国水资源的环境影响.结果表明:2000年,中国水资源的消费足迹为7678.45亿m^3,人均609.3m^3/a.人口数量是当前我国水足迹的一个主要驱动因子,富裕程度的提高会增加人类对水资源的总消费,气候因素和区位条件对水足迹具有显著影响,而提高土地生产能力对减少水足迹具有重要作用.在观测数据范围内,分析结果并不支持环境Kuznets曲线存在的论断.最后分析讨论了水足迹研究需要进一步完善的问题以及STIRPAT模型实证分析的政策意义.  相似文献
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环境影响评价中人文因素作用的空间计量   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4       下载免费PDF全文
孙克  徐中民 《生态学报》2009,29(3):1563-1570
辨明人文因素对环境影响作用的大小,并依此找寻发展的对策是当前可持续发展研究的核心问题之一.采用中国2000年各省(区、市)的水足迹作为环境影响测算指标,运用空间自相关模型,分析了中国2000年水足迹的空间分布特征,结果表明:中国各省市的水足迹具有明显的空间相关性,在地理上存在集聚现象.进而在传统的人文驱动因素的随机回归影响模型--STIRPAT模型的基础上,通过加入空间项构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,定量地检验了中国的人口数量和富裕程度等人文因素对环境的影响,结果表明:人口数量对环境影响显著,而富裕程度对其影响较小;转变传统的经济增长方式,走新型工业化道路对环境影响显著,城市化率对环境没有显著影响;在控制人口变量的基础上,现有样本数据支持倒U形的环境Kuznets曲线假说,其拐点值为10560.92元;在技术水效率方面,海南的技术水效率最高,而青海和内蒙古的技术水效率最低.  相似文献
3.
厦门市生态经济系统物质流分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
魏婷  朱晓东 《生态学报》2009,29(7):3800-3810
运用物质流分析(MFA)方法和STIRPAT模型,对1996~2007年厦门生态经济系统物质输入与输出进行分析,结果表明:(1)在不考虑水的情况下,物质输入与输出不断增加(年均增长率分别为11.48%、11.41%),但均小于GDP增长速度(15.94%),二者成正比;物质流增长集中表现在对金属、非金属矿物的需求及化石燃料燃烧废气、工业废气的排放.(2)用水量和废水排放量均不断增加,尤以生活污水排放量增长速度较快,加重了区域环境的压力.(3)物质输入与GDP、物质输出与GDP呈良好线性关系.厦门经济发展很大程度上依赖资源消耗.(4)单位GDP物质输入与输出均不断减小,表明资源利用率、处置率明显提高,区域逐步走向生态环境与社会经济的协调发展.(5)构建了厦门物质输入驱动机制的STIRPAT模型,得出人口数量、富裕程度、技术水平或经济结构每分别发生1%的变化,将引起输入量相应发生0.99%、0.98%、0.17%、0.31%的变化.提升技术水平和优化经济结构具有较大调控空间,将是厦门物质减量化战略的实施重点.  相似文献
4.
Identifying the specific forces driving environmental impact is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development in the pasturing area. In the paper, the ecological footprint was taken as the index of environmental impact, and a series of index like population quality, prosperous, using intensity, livelihood tactics are considered as the main human factors. Using the STIRPAT model and temporal series data from 1980 to 2007, the author analyzes the effects of the human driving forces of environmental impact.
The ecological footprint method presents a simple framework for national natural capital accounting, and it has been used as a comprehensive index of human activity impact, which indirectly reflect human activity’s pressure on the environment. Our analyses showed that the ecological footprint increased from 238736.9 to 877716.1 ha and per capital ecological footprint also increased from 0.854 to 1.961 ha/per during 1980–2007 in Gannan pasturing area. However, in the meantime, the ecological footprint intensity was inclined from 25.396 to 3.025 ha/ten thousand yuan.
With a view of dismantling the human driving forces of ecological footprint, the modified IPAT-called STIRPAT has been employed as a common analytic framework. Our analyses showed that population quantity and using intensity was a major driver of ecological footprint, their coefficients were greater than 1.0 in model (1); In addition, promoting the prosperous lever and the primary industry proportion, the impact of environment will be increased, but their coefficients are less than 1.0 in model (1). At the same time, the technological eco-efficiency of sample regions was discussed in details, the range ability of the technological eco-efficiency was wider, and 15 years went beyond the average level, but the other was less than the average level. Another important finding in the empirical study is that there are some evidences of an environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint within the range of calculated data. Some potential improvements in some further researches and suggestions to alleviate the environment pressure, and it is put forward in the last section.  相似文献
5.
Xue-Yan Zhao 《生态学报》2010,30(3):141-149
Identifying the specific forces driving environmental impact is a hot topic in the field of sustainable development in the pasturing area. In the paper, the ecological footprint was taken as the index of environmental impact, and a series of index like population quality, prosperous, using intensity, livelihood tactics are considered as the main human factors. Using the STIRPAT model and temporal series data from 1980 to 2007, the author analyzes the effects of the human driving forces of environmental impact.
The ecological footprint method presents a simple framework for national natural capital accounting, and it has been used as a comprehensive index of human activity impact, which indirectly reflect human activity’s pressure on the environment. Our analyses showed that the ecological footprint increased from 238736.9 to 877716.1 ha and per capital ecological footprint also increased from 0.854 to 1.961 ha/per during 1980–2007 in Gannan pasturing area. However, in the meantime, the ecological footprint intensity was inclined from 25.396 to 3.025 ha/ten thousand yuan.
With a view of dismantling the human driving forces of ecological footprint, the modified IPAT-called STIRPAT has been employed as a common analytic framework. Our analyses showed that population quantity and using intensity was a major driver of ecological footprint, their coefficients were greater than 1.0 in model (1); In addition, promoting the prosperous lever and the primary industry proportion, the impact of environment will be increased, but their coefficients are less than 1.0 in model (1). At the same time, the technological eco-efficiency of sample regions was discussed in details, the range ability of the technological eco-efficiency was wider, and 15 years went beyond the average level, but the other was less than the average level. Another important finding in the empirical study is that there are some evidences of an environmental Kuznets curve for ecological footprint within the range of calculated data. Some potential improvements in some further researches and suggestions to alleviate the environment pressure, and it is put forward in the last section.  相似文献
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