Concomitant Information in Competing Risk Analysis

A competing risk model, accommodating both Type I censoring and random withdrawals, is expanded to incorporate concomitant information by allowing the parameters of the underlying distributions to be a linear function of two covariates. The model is developed for two competing risks, one following a Weibull distribution and the other a Rayleigh distribution, and random withdrawals following a Weibull distribution. A method is developed for testing the equality of the coefficients for a given covariate for each of the competing risks using MLE'.     

Modela-r as a Froude and Strouhal dimensionless numbers combination for dynamic similarity in running

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that running at fixed fractions of Froude (Nfr) and Strouhal (Str) dimensionless numbers combinations induce dynamic similarity between humans of different sizes. Nineteen subjects ran in three experimental conditions, (i) constant speed, (ii) similar speed (Nfr) and (iii) similar speed and similar step frequency (Nfr and Str combination). In addition to anthropometric data, temporal, kinematic and kinetic parameters were assessed at each stage to measure dynamic similarity informed by dimensional scale factors and by the decrease of dimensionless mechanical parameter variability. Over a total of 54 dynamic parameters, dynamic similarity from scale factors was met for 16 (mean r=0.51), 32 (mean r=0.49) and 52 (mean r=0.60) parameters in the first, the second and the third experimental conditions, respectively. The variability of the dimensionless preceding parameters was lower in the third condition than in the others. This study shows that the combination of Nfr and Str, computed from the dimensionless energy ratio at the center of gravity (Modela-r) ensures dynamic similarity between different-sized subjects. The relevance of using similar experimental conditions to compare mechanical dimensionless parameters is also proved and will highlight the study of running techniques, or equipment, and will allow the identification of abnormal and pathogenic running patterns. Modela-r may be adapted to study other abilities requiring bounces in human or animal locomotion or to conduct investigations in comparative biomechanics.     

Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses

Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest‐building in animals directly, for example via sea‐level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature‐dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest‐building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long‐term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short‐term adaptations, the ability of nest‐building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest‐building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest‐building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest‐building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short‐ and long‐term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the most urgent attention for further research.     

Infrared heater arrays for warming ecosystem field plots

There is a need for methodology to warm open‐field plots in order to study the likely effects of global warming on ecosystems in the future. Herein, we describe the development of arrays of more powerful and efficient infrared heaters with ceramic heating elements. By tilting the heaters at 45° from horizontal and combining six of them in a hexagonal array, good uniformity of warming was achieved across 3‐m‐diameter plots. Moreover, there do not appear to be obstacles (other than financial) to scaling to larger plots. The efficiency [η_h (%); thermal radiation out per electrical energy in] of these heaters was higher than that of the heaters used in most previous infrared heater experiments and can be described by: η_h= 10 + 25exp(? 0.17 u), where u is wind speed at 2 m height (m s^{? 1}). Graphs are presented to estimate operating costs from degrees of warming, two types of plant canopy, and site windiness. Four such arrays were deployed over plots of grass at Haibei, Qinghai, China and another at Cheyenne, Wyoming, USA, along with corresponding reference plots with dummy heaters. Proportional integral derivative systems with infrared thermometers to sense canopy temperatures of the heated and reference plots were used to control the heater outputs. Over month‐long periods at both sites, about 75% of canopy temperature observations were within 0.5 °C of the set‐point temperature differences between heated and reference plots. Electrical power consumption per 3‐m‐diameter plot averaged 58 and 80 kW h day^{? 1} for Haibei and Cheyenne, respectively. However, the desired temperature differences were set lower at Haibei (1.2 °C daytime, 1.7 °C night) than Cheyenne (1.5 °C daytime, 3.0 °C night), and Cheyenne is a windier site. Thus, we conclude that these hexagonal arrays of ceramic infrared heaters can be a successful temperature free‐air‐controlled enhancement (T‐FACE) system for warming ecosystem field plots.     

Plant cover estimation based on the beta distribution in grassland vegetation

Cover is the most frequently used measure of abundance in vegetation surveys of grasslands, and various qualitative and semi-quantitative methods have been developed for visual estimation of this metric. Field survey is usually made with a point-grid plate. The frequency distributions of cover derived from point-grid counts follow a beta distribution. Combining point-grid counts from a field survey and the beta distribution for a statistical analysis, we developed an effort-saving cover-measurement method. Cover is measured with a transparent plastic plate on which, for example, 10 × 10 = 100 points are arranged in a lattice with 1-cm grid spacing (thus, one point count represents 1 cm² of cover). N quadrats are set out at randomly dispersed sites in a grassland, and, in each, the plastic plate is used for making counts. The number of grid points located above a given species is counted in every quadrat until the number of counted points reaches a given value c, which is determined in advance. If the number of counted points reaches c in a quadrat, the count is stopped and the quadrat is classified in the category “>c”. In quadrats where c is not attained, full point counts above the species bodies are made. Let g be the number of observed quadrats whose cover is ≤c. Using these g cover measurements and the number of quadrats (N − g) with cover >c, we can quantitatively estimate cover for each species and the spatial pattern index value based on the maximum likelihood method. In trial counts using this method, the time savings varied between 5% and 41%, depending on the shape of the cover frequency distribution. The mean cover value estimates agreed well with conventional measures without a stopping point (i.e., based on full counts of all points in each quadrat).     

The Effects of Misspecification of a Regression Model

The consequences of the misspecification of a regression model are considered. For small effects of covariates a proportional consistency theorem is derived. The consistent estimation of the covariance matrix of the estimates is discussed.