气候变化下中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区模拟

中国梧桐属（Firmiana）在世界梧桐属中占比较大，且除梧桐外其余种均为中国特有且分布范围狭窄的植物种，灭绝风险大，研究气候变化对中国梧桐属树种的影响对于维护生物多样性具有重要的意义。结合多时期第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）气候变量数据和中国八种梧桐属树种的分布数据，基于R语言kuenm程序包优化的最大熵（Maxent）模型模拟分析中国八种梧桐属树种在多尺度下的潜在适生区，得出梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度、潜在适生区的面积变化和迁移方向、梧桐属多样性保护关键区域及保护空缺。结果表明：（1）梧桐属最适宜的模拟尺度为亚洲；（2） Maxent模型的接收者操作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值均大于0.9，表明模型对梧桐属潜在适生区预测结果具有较高准确度；（3）气候变化影响下除云南梧桐（Firmiana major）外其它树种的潜在适生区都将在未来有所扩大；（4）中国八种梧桐属树种潜在适生区迁移方向主要为东西向，南北向大跨度迁移较少，纬度变化不大；（5）丹霞梧桐（Firmiana danxiaensis）的稳定潜在适生区最小；（6）中国梧桐属多样性保护关键区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区及云南、广东、海南等省区；（7）中国梧桐属多样性保护空缺区域主要分布于广西壮族自治区中部及海南省北部；（8）梧桐属多样性保护关键区域正在为人造地表所侵蚀。研究分析气候变化对中国八种梧桐属树种的影响及其潜在适生区变化、中国梧桐属多样性保护状态，可为中国梧桐属建立多样性保护廊道提供相关建议，为制定多样性保护规划及相应措施提供参考。     

Tropical niche conservatism as a historical narrative hypothesis for the Neotropics: a case study using the fly family Muscidae

Aim We evaluate the extent to which the tropical conservatism hypothesis can explain the evolutionary development of the Muscidae. Furthermore, we compare the geographical patterns of muscid phylogenetic structure with biogeographical regions that have been identified for Neotropical insects. Location Central and South America. Methods We modelled the geographic distributions of 658 species using Maxent and 19 environmental variables. A generic‐level supertree of the Muscidae was assembled using matrix representation with parsimony and used to map the geographic pattern of mean root distance (MRD), a metric of the relative evolutionary development of assemblages. Regression models (ordinary least squares and regression trees) were used to examine temperature and other environmental correlates of MRD to explore potential environmental drivers of muscid diversification. We used the regression tree results to recognize variable intervals that best explained MRD, and these intervals were mapped to recognize and compare with biogeographical regions of Neotropical insects. Results The geographic pattern of MRD was consistent with the tropical conservatism hypothesis: species in genera that diversified relatively early, as measured by their distance from the tree root, dominate lowland tropical South America, whereas species in genera that diversified more recently occupy extra‐tropical areas, sub‐Antarctic areas and the Andean highlands. Temperature was the strongest correlate of MRD. Three biogeographical regions were recognized and they coincided with two regions known for insects. Main conclusions Evolutionary responses of muscid flies to post‐Eocene climate change taking the form of an expansion of a tropical group into regions with colder climates may be fundamental to explaining their distribution in the Neotropics. Our biogeographical regions delimited by temperature and the phylogenetic metric, surrogates of the tropical conservatism hypothesis, were very similar to general insect patterns, supporting the ‘tropical origin and evolutionary response to climate cooling’ as a broadly based historical narrative for the Neotropics.     

Environmental Suitability and Distribution of the Caucasian Rock Agama, Paralaudakia caucasia （Sauria： Agamidae） in Western and Central Asia

Predictive potential distribution modeling is crucial in outlining habitat usage and establishing conservation management priorities. In this paper we provide detailed data on the distribution of the Caucasian rock agama Para- laudakia caucasia, and use species distribution models （MAXENT） to evaluate environmental suitability and potential distribution at a broad spatial scale. Locality data on the distribution of P. caucasia have been gathered over nearly its entire range by various authors from field surveys. The distribution model ofP caucasia showed good performance （AUC = 0.887）, and predicted high suitability in regions mainly located in Tajikistan, north Pakistan, Afghanistan, southeast Turkmenistan, northeast Iran along the Elburz mountains, Transcaueasus （Azerbajan, Armenia, Georgia）, northeastern Turkey and northward along the Caspian Sea coast in Daghestan, Russia. The identification of suitable areas for this species will help to assess conservation status of the species, and to set up management programs.     

Invasion of the gall mite Aceria genistae (Acari: Eriophyidae), a natural enemy of the invasive weed Cytisus scoparius,into California,U.S.A. and predictions for climate suitability in other regions using ecological niche modelling

Scotch broom (Cytisus scoparius (L.) Link) is a European shrub that has naturalised in several countries worldwide and is recognised as an invasive weed in much of western North America. The mite Aceria genistae (Nalepa) is a coevolved, gall-inducing herbivore associated with Scotch broom in its native range and has been intentionally introduced as a classical weed biological control agent of C. scoparius in Australia and New Zealand. An adventive, never intentionally introduced, population of A. genistae was discovered in Washington and Oregon, U.S.A. in 2005. Surveys for A. genistae in California resulted in the discovery of the gall mite in 11 counties, with a widely scattered distribution. Molecular and morphological assessments confirm the mites collected from galls in California are A. genistae. Whether natural or anthropogenic, the estimated rate of long range dispersal for A. genistae from Washington or Oregon to California ranges from 39 to 62?km/yr. Niche model predictions indicate that A. genistae will continue to expand its distribution throughout much of the Scotch broom-invaded lands of California but areas supporting the weed in the Eastern U.S.A. appear less suitable. Modelling evidence also indicates that portions of Chile and Argentina are suitable for colonisation by A. genistae, also suggesting that expansion of the mite is possible in areas of Tasmania, southeastern Australia, and New Zealand where the mite was released. The environmental safety of A. genistae in relation to non-target plants and the influence of herbivory on Scotch broom fitness are discussed.     

入侵害虫菊方翅网蝽在中国的潜在分布预测

菊方翅网蝽Corythucha marmorata(Uhler,1878)是我国新近发现的外来入侵害虫,研究明确菊方翅网蝽在我国的潜在分布范围对其监测预警及科学防控具有重要意义。本研究根据菊方翅网蝽的地理分布数据及相关环境变量,运用Maxent生态位模型与ArcGIS预测了菊方翅网蝽在中国的潜在地理分布范围。预测结果表明:菊方翅网蝽在我国的适生区主要分布于100°～125°E,20°～40°N的亚热带、暖温带区域,其中高适生区主要集中在长江中下游地区,包括浙江、江苏、湖南、上海大部分地区、安徽南部、湖北南部、江西西部及南部、贵州东部、福建东部、广西北部、山东中部、河南南部以及重庆、台湾局部;此外,极端气温、平均气温、最干月份降雨量对菊方翅网蝽的潜在分布影响较大。菊方翅网蝽已在我国成功入侵并迅速蔓延成灾,应在疫区边缘地带加强监测,并采取措施防止其进一步扩散。     

Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to ?63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.     

Using niche modelling and human influence index to indicate conservation priorities for Atlantic forest deer species

To prioritise conservation actions and management strategies for threatened forest deer species at the Atlantic forest, we aimed to identify and describe the most suitable habitat areas for forest deer species and to indicate conservation measures for state agents and local communities. We adopt an approach based on ecological niche modelling, key variable thresholds and spatial analyses. In addition, we associated our approach with a human influence index, an invasive species dataset of occurrences, protected area cover and IUCN category. We indicate 2 % (484 km²) of the Atlantic forest cover as conservation priority areas (CPAs). Of these, 56.8 % are outside protected areas, 20.7 % are inside IUCN categories i, ii and iii protected areas, 19.9 % are inside IUCN categories iv, v, and vi protected areas, and 2.6 % are inside indigenous areas. Also, we indicate the most relevant protected areas for deer conservation in the Atlantic forest. The CPAs were classified into more human-influenced areas (MHIA) and less human-influenced areas (LHIA), and we identified 21 significant (greater than120 km²) continuous CPAs outside protected areas. We highlight actions in several perspectives of human influence, governance levels and law protection that would rationalise the use of funds and human resources.     

Geographical distribution modelling of the bronze bug: a worldwide invasion

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