Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of adaptive monitoring. We suspect our situation is not unique and many programs may suffer from the same inferential disconnect. Commonly, the survey design is optimized for robust estimates of regional status and trend detection and not necessarily to provide statistical inferences on the causal mechanisms outlined in the conceptual model, even though these relationships are typically used to justify and promote the long-term monitoring of a chosen ecological indicator. Our application demonstrates a process for empirical evaluation of conceptual models and exemplifies the need for such interim assessments in order for programs to evolve and persist.     

On the Information Matrix of Exponential Mixture Models with Long-term Survivors

The aim of this paper is to study the properties of the asymptotic variances of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the exponential mixture model with long-term survivors for randomly censored data. In addition, we study the asymptotic relative efficiency of these estimators versus those which would be obtained with complete follow-up. It is shown that fixed censoring at time T produces higher precision as well as higher asymptotic relative efficiency than those obtainable under uniform and uniform-exponential censoring distributions over (0, T). The results are useful in planning the size and duration of survival experiments with long-term survivors under random censoring schemes.     

Correlation between two components of parental investment: nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of willow tits

Nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of female willow tits (Parus montanus) were significantly correlated at the end of nestling period: well-fed young were defended most intensely. Increased effort was rewarded, since broods with the highest female per-offspring provisioning rates were the most likely to produce local recruits. This suggests that the feeding ability is an important cue for parental investment decisions, at least in a species like the willow tit which has adopted the clutch adjustment strategy. Thus, the most valuable broods would not necessarily be the largest ones, but the ones in which the original number of young could be fed most adequately. However, no associations were found between the level of parental effort and offspring weight, size or condition, nor did the broods producing recruits differ from other broods in timing of breeding or number and size of offspring. The female behaviour may suggest that they invest the most time, energy and risk in the young whose chances of joining the winter flock are the best. The first well-fed young also gain an advantage of prior residency in joining the flock. The first to join normally obtain higher social status, and hence better winter survival, than latecomers. The corresponding patterns in male parental investment behaviour were weak or absent, which suggested that the male effort was affected by the female behaviour. Males seemed to invest in nestling provisioning in such a way as to supplement the female effort. During nest defence action males also seemed to invest in protection of females against predation.     

基于4种光响应模型模拟不同砧木对夏黑葡萄耐弱光能力的影响

采用直角双曲线模型、非直角双曲线模型、直角双曲线修正模型和指数模型4种光响应模型分别拟合夏黑/贝达、夏黑/1103P、夏黑/101-14、夏黑/3309C、夏黑/140Ru、夏黑/5C、夏黑/5BB、夏黑/420A、夏黑/SO4、夏黑/抗砧1号、夏黑/华葡1号11种砧穗组合的光响应曲线,通过拟合程度、光补偿点、光饱和点、初始量子效率、最大净光合速率、暗呼吸速率等6个参数分析比较其拟合效果.结果表明: 4种模型拟合系数都在0.98以上,在光补偿点上,4种模型拟合效果相差不大,但直角双曲线修正模型在光饱和点、初始量子效率、最大净光合速率和暗呼吸速率方面拟合程度最好,运用赤池信息量准则计算,直角双曲线修正模型赤池信息量准则(AIC)值也最小,因此,直角双曲线修正模型为最佳拟合模型.通过聚类分析发现,夏黑/SO4、夏黑/420A两砧穗组合的表观量子效率高、光补偿点低、暗呼吸速率低,说明两者对弱光的利用效率高,耐弱光能力强,呼吸消耗少.通过Topsis (Technique for Order Prefe-rence by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)方法综合排名发现,夏黑/SO4、夏黑/420A组合耐弱光能力分别为第1、2名,与聚类分析结果一致.因此,夏黑以SO4或420A作为砧木的耐弱光能力最突出,更适合设施栽培.     

D-Cycloserine: Agonist turned antagonist

Summary D-Cycloserine can enhance activation of the NMDA receptor complex and could enhance the induction of long-term potentiation (LTP). In animals and humans, D-cycloserine can enhance performance in learning and memory tasks. This enhancing effect can disappear during repeated administration. The enhancing effects are also lost when higher doses are used, and replaced by behavioral and biochemical effects like those produced by NMDA antagonists. It has been reported that NMDA agonists, applied before or after tetanic stimulation, can block the induction of LTP. This may be the result of feedback inhibition of second messenger pathways stimulated by receptor activation. This may explain the antagonist-like effects of glycine partial agonists like D-cycloserine. In clinical trials of D-cycloserine in age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) and Alzheimer's disease, chronic treatment provided few positive effects on learning and memory. This may be due to inhibition of second messenger pathways following chronic stimulation of the receptor complex.     

Extraction of defatted rice bran by subcritical water treatment

Defatted rice bran was treated with subcritical water in the temperature range of 180–280 °C for 5 min using 117 mL and 9 mL vessels to produce the extracts. The total sugar and protein contents and radical scavenging activity of the extracts were then estimated for both vessels. The total sugar concentration of ca. 0.3 g/L-extract was the highest for the extracts at 200 °C, and it significantly decreased at the higher temperatures. The protein concentration and radical scavenging activity were higher at the higher temperatures. Extraction was also done at 200 °C and 260 °C for various times using the small vessel. The total sugar concentration decreased with the increasing extraction time, while the protein concentration and radical scavenging activity only slightly depended on the extraction time. The extracts at 200 °C or lower temperatures using the large vessel possessed the emulsifying and emulsion-stabilizing activities. The HPLC analysis of the extract at 260 °C for 5 min using the small vessel indicated that it contained both hydrophilic and hydrophobic substances. The hydrophilic fraction of the extract mainly contained low-molecular-mass substances.     

Light response in seedlings of a temperate (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus petraea</Emphasis>) and a sub-Mediterranean species (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus pyrenaica</Emphasis>): contrasting ecological strategies as potential keys to regeneration performance in mixed marginal populations

In order to understand better the ecology of the temperate species Quercus petraea and the sub-Mediterranean species Quercus pyrenaica, two deciduous oaks, seedlings were raised in two contrasting light environments (SH, 5.3% full sunlight vs. HL, 70% full sunlight) for 2 years, and a subset of the SH seedlings were transferred to HL (SH–HL) in the summer of the second year. We predicted that Q. pyrenaica would behave more as a stress-tolerant species, with lower specific leaf area (SLA), allocation to leaf mass, and growth rate and less responsiveness to light in these metrics, than Q. petraea, presumed to be more competitive when resources, especially light and water, are abundant. Seedlings of Q. petraea had larger leaves with higher SLA, and exhibited a greater relative growth rate (RGR) in both SH and HL. They also displayed a higher proportion of biomass in stems (SMF), and a lower root to shoot ratio (R/S) in HL than those of Q. pyrenaica, which sprouted profusely, and had higher rates of photosynthesis (A_n) and stomatal conductance (g_wv), but lower whole-plant net assimilation rate (NAR). On exposure to a sudden increase in light, SH–HL seedlings of both species showed a short period of photoinhibition, but fully acclimated photosynthetic features within 46 days after transference; height, main stem diameter, RGR and NAR all increased at the end of the experiment compared to SH seedlings, with these increases more pronounced in Q. petraea. Observed differences in traits and responses to light confirmed a contrasting ecology at the seedling stage in Q. petraea and Q. pyrenaica in consonance with differences in their overall distribution. We discuss how the characteristics of Q. petraea may limit the availability of suitable regeneration niches to microsites of high-resource availability in marginal populations of Mediterranean climate, with potential negative consequences for its recruitment under predicted climatic changes.