The influence of environmental factors on the spatial distribution of saxicolous lichens in a Norwegian coastal community

Abstract. The effects of vegetation cover, radiation, micro‐habitat variables and maritime influence on the floristic composition of a saxicolous community in Vingen, western Norway were studied. Particular emphasis is put on the local distribution of Fuscidea cyathoides, Ochrolechia tartarea, Ophioparma ventosa and Pertusaria corallina. Very little of the variation in the lichen community composition is directly related to measured micro‐environmental variables but variance partitioning shows that vegetation cover explains more of the floristic variation than radiation, maritime influence and microhabitat variables. Logistic regression analyses nevertheless indicate that the micro‐environment influences the spatial distribution of the four species. The high fraction of unexplained floristic variation, 91%, is suggested to result from (1) lack of fit of data to the response model; (2) some influential environmental variables that have not been recorded; (3) local historical factors that affect present day distribution and/or (4) apparent randomness in colonization. The results also agree with the view that the four lichen species in this study are able to co‐exist in the long‐term because of different spatial distributions resulting from different strategies with respect to ecology, dispersion and interaction.     

Distribution of plant functional types along gradients of disturbance intensity and resource supply in an agricultural landscape

Abstract. In this study, plant functional types are understood as groups of plants with similar biological traits displaying significant optima or maxima on a gradient plane of resource supply and disturbance intensity. The biological traits refer to expansion, vegetative regeneration, generative reproduction, dispersal and seed bank longevity. 129 vegetation samples were taken in an agricultural landscape in southwestern Germany, covering a wide range of terrestrial vegetation types – but with the exception of forests and wetlands. For each site, also soil data were recorded. Mean daily soil moisture was estimated with a simple model. Soil moisture, balanced nitrogen supply and available phosphorus were combined into a factor ‘resource supply’. In addition, disturbance intensity was estimated for each site. This factor was based on (1) frequency of disturbance, (2) disturbance depth below or above the soil surface, and (3) proportion of the area affected by a discrete disturbance event. 30 plant groups with similar biological characteristics resulted from a cluster analysis, based on a compilation of 19 biological traits for a regional species pool. Logistic regression on a gradient plane of disturbance intensity and resource supply yielded response curves for 28 groups. The dependent variable was defined as the probability of encountering all members of a group in a sample. 17 groups display a significant response curve on the gradient plane. Plants with a potential for long- range dispersal are concentrated on sites with low or high disturbance intensities (e.g. fallow land, fields, lawns). On sites with medium disturbance intensity (e.g. meadows) and low to medium resource supply, small-range dispersal predominates. There are no distinct trends concerning seed bank longevity. The potential for vertical and lateral expansion increases with decreasing disturbance intensity. Only at medium disturbance intensities does vertical expansion correlate positively with resource supply. Rapid detachment of daughter individuals occurs more often on productive sites than on less productive sites. Diversity of groups with similar biological traits is highest on sites with medium disturbance intensities.     

The growth form of populations in some aphids,with special reference to the relation between population density and the movements

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National Institute of Agricultural Sciences     

Analysis of Multiply Matched Retrospective Studies When Risk Factor Under Study is Discrete,With Two or More Levels

The odds ratio is known to closely approximate the relative risk when the disease is rare. Logistic regression models are often used to estimate such odds ratios, but here a different model is used which avoids the assumptions implicit in logistic modelling; it also has the advantage of providing a test of homogeneity for odds rat os in situations where the logistic model cannot.     

The Treatment of Missing Values in Logistic Regression

The efficiencies of the estimators in the linear logistic regression model are examined using simulations under six missing value treatments. These treatments use either the maximum likelihood or the discriminant function approach in the estimation of the regression coefficients. Missing values are assumed to occur at random. The cases of multivariate normal and dichotomous independent variables are both considered. We found that in general, there is no uniformly best method. However, mean substitution and discriminant function estimation using existing pairs of values for correlations turn out to be favourable for the cases considered.     

Binary Responses and the Three-period Cross-over

Problems with carry-over effects in the simple two-period cross-over have lead to interest in more complex cross-over designs. A method for analysing the optimum two-treatment three-period design with binary response variables is given by making a simple extension to Gart's logistic model. The method gives independent tests for, and estimates of the difference in treatment and first-order carry-over effects. An example of the analysis is given, using the loglinear models facility in GLIM.     

Variation partitioning for range expansion of an introduced species: the common waxbill Estrilda astrild in Portugal

The common waxbill Estrilda astrild was first introduced to Portugal, from Africa, in 1964, from where it has spread to much of the country and to Spain. We modelled the expansion of this species on a 20×20-km UTM grid in 4-year periods from 1964 to 1999. Colonisation process on a grid was modelled as a function of several biophysical and spatio-temporal variables through the fitting of several multiple logistic equations. Variation partitioning confirmed the importance of the spatial-temporal component, explaining 33% of the total variation, followed by the combined effects of both environmental and spatial-temporal variables (around 25%). Only 11% of the total variation can be attributed strictly to the considered environmental factors.     

三江源牧户参与草地生态保护的意愿

牧民对环境保护的响应是生态保护战略有效实施的关键,主体参与意愿直接影响生态保护项目实施的成效和可持续性,是区域生态经济可持续发展的前提。通过对三江源地区约283户藏族牧民通过翻译进行结构式访谈,采用Logistic模型从主体角度探讨了牧户愿意参与生态保护行为响应的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)三江源区域约87%的牧户认为生态保护对牧户有好处,但受各种内外部因素的影响只有近70%的牧户是在政府主导下基于有限理性而被动的参与生态保护行为响应。(2)三江源牧户参与生态保护行为响应的意愿主要受当地政府的保护力度及牧户对生态保护外部性的认知水平、生计水平、外界接触程度、工作机会的正影响,并受牧户的年龄、离中心城镇的距离和区域气候恶劣情况等因素的负影响,系数依次为:2.22、3.98、1.93、2.26、1.48、-1.63、-2.43、-0.92。(3)牧户的生计水平、退化感知和外部性认知是影响三江源牧户参与生态保护意愿的关键因素,牧户参与生态保护意愿的概率不仅仅是牧户出于自身利益和未知风险考虑下被动的响应,更是当地政府的环境知识宣传和保护投入影响下个体的抉择结果。(4)创造更多的就业机会和解决牧户的单一化生计问题,构建完善地生态补偿机制让牧户分享生态保护的外部性效益,并激励牧户主动参与生态保护行为响应,才能最终实现区域生态保护、牧户幸福和生态经济可持续发展的多赢局面。