Land use/cover change and its drivers: a case in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes in the watershed (2,157 km²) of Lake Kasumigaura during 1979–1996 (Period-1: 1979–1990, Period-2: 1990–1996) were analyzed, and their socio-economic and biophysical drivers were compared using time-series, high-quality GIS datasets in order to examine the characteristics of a model forecasting the future LULC. The changes occurred over an area of more than 90 km² during the overall period at changing rates of 0.22% year⁻¹ in Period-1 and 0.25% year⁻¹ in Period-2. Forestland decreased most in both periods at changing rates of 0.45% year⁻¹ in Period-1 and 0.61% year⁻¹ in Period-2. However, predominant changing patterns differed, i.e., from forest to golf course in Period-1 and from forest to artificial field in Period-2. Particularly in Period-2, a significant LULC change was observed in an area of high population increase on the edge of an already high-population area. Relationships examined among LULC change, population, and rate of population change suggested that the urbanized area was highly resistant to LULC change, and that such change was less frequent in areas of population decline. Statistical analyses indicated that the most influential drivers for total LULC changes were population in Period-1 and distance from the Tokyo Station in Period-2. Since the change potentials differed between the periods, we could not assume a stationary process for the corresponding drivers. Somewhat low S values (indices for demonstrability) show that LULC changes in the watershed of Lake Kasumigaura occurred rather randomly, probably resulting in fragmentation of the landscape.     

克里雅河中游土地利用/覆被与景观格局变化研究

干旱内陆河流在维系绿洲形成与发展,连接干旱区绿洲各类生态子系统中具有举足轻重的作用。以克里雅河中游为研究区,基于遥感影像分析了1995年、2005年和2015年3个时期的土地利用/覆被与景观格局变化特征,采用缓冲区分析法,揭示了土地利用/覆被与景观格局的时空变化特征,用土地覆被转移指数模型计算了土地利用转移方向。研究结果表明:1)1995—2015年,克里雅河中游耕地持续增加,草地和水体呈减少趋势,耕地增加和水体减少主要发生在河道附近,草地退化在绿洲边缘较严重。在河道附近,耕地主要由水体和草地转入,水体主要转出到耕地,而在绿洲边缘草地主要转出为其他用地;2)从景观水平看,研究区整体景观具有破碎化趋势,景观多样性降低,分离度变大,整个景观向均匀化发展,此变化在河道附近和绿洲边缘较明显。从类型水平看,耕地斑块数量持续增加,有向连片生成的趋势。草地斑块分离度越来越大,逐渐失去了在绿洲中的优势。水体有破碎化趋势;3)从土地转移指数看,研究区土地覆被总体变差;河道附近土地覆被经历了退化-改善的变化过程,而其他缓冲带则是持续退化,尤其绿洲边缘退化程度最为严重。     

粤港澳大湾区城镇化对海岸线与海岸带的影响

海岸带以丰富的自然资源与优越的地理位置成为城镇化的关键地带。基于Google Earth平台2001、2010、2018年高分影像识别分析了粤港澳大湾区快速城镇化过程中海岸线长度的变化,并分析了大湾区海岸带土地利用/土地覆被(land use/land cover, LULC)变化,以及定量解析了大湾区滨海城市城镇化与海岸带城镇用地的关联关系。结果表明:(1)2001—2018年,粤港澳大湾区海岸线总长度净增加32.24 km,但自然岸线人工化问题突出,自然岸线共减少187.67 km,人工岸线共增加219.91 km;(2)海岸带(海岸线向陆侧5 km缓冲区) LULC组成以耕地为主,但城镇用地对耕地的侵占问题突出,2001—2018年,耕地面积减少347.58 km~2,城镇用地面积增加588.33 km~2;(3)2001—2018年,滨海城市土地城镇化与海岸带城镇用地增长呈显著相关,并且滨海城市土地城镇化对海岸带城镇用地增加的影响在加强(2001—2010年和2010—2018年贡献率分别为43.7%和68.51%)。研究结果可对粤港澳大湾区海岸带保护、修复以及土地利用规划管理...     

The transparency,reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land‐use and land‐cover change models

Land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South‐East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio‐temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land‐use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the discipline.     

挠力河流域河流的B-IBI评价

挠力河流域是中国东北三江平原地区重要的商品粮基地之一.选择挠力河流域干支流6个河段21个样点,2007年7月进行河流大型无脊椎动物样本的采集和鉴定,并分别采用3分法和比值法进行了河流大型无脊椎动物完整性指数(简称B-IBI)计算与评价.结果显示,使用两种方法得出的评价结果基本一致,且与水质、生境质量评价结果呈显著正相关关系.研究表明,挠力河流域河流生物完整性总体良好,个别样点较差.全流域属于无干扰和轻度干扰的样点占71.4%,中度干扰的样点占23.8%,重度干扰的仅占4.8%.得分较高的样点多处于挠力河支流或干流上游的山区,人类活动较少,河流周围为茂密的森林植被;分值较低的样点主要位于支流下游或干流中游,均临近居民点,水体质量较差,河岸人类活动密集,植被覆盖度低,土地开发利用强烈等特征.这表明,河流B-IBI受到河岸土地覆被和土地利用(LULC)的重要影响.