A genetic and spatial Bayesian analysis of mastitis resistance

A nationwide health card recording system for dairy cattle was introduced in Norway in 1975 (the Norwegian Cattle Health Services). The data base holds information on mastitis occurrences on an individual cow basis. A reduction in mastitis frequency across the population is desired, and for this purpose risk factors are investigated. In this paper a Bayesian proportional hazards model is used for modelling the time to first veterinary treatment of clinical mastitis, including both genetic and environmental covariates. Sire effects were modelled as shared random components, and veterinary district was included as an environmental effect with prior spatial smoothing. A non-informative smoothing prior was assumed for the baseline hazard, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC) were used for inference. We propose a new measure of quality for sires, in terms of their posterior probability of being among the, say 10% best sires. The probability is an easily interpretable measure that can be directly used to rank sires. Estimating these complex probabilities is straightforward in an MCMC setting. The results indicate considerable differences between sires with regards to their daughters disease resistance. A regional effect was also discovered with the lowest risk of disease in the south-eastern parts of Norway.     

Critical note on the application of the “two-third” spline

The “two-third spline” (2/3S) is a frequently applied method to detrend tree-ring series. It fits a spline with a 50% frequency cutoff at a frequency equal to two-thirds of each sample length in a dataset. It was introduced to ensure a minimum loss of low-frequency variance, which is resolvable during the detrending of ring-width series.In this paper I show potential problems that arise when rusing this method. The 2/3S runs counter the strengths of using a digital filter to detrend – i.e. one is giving up full control over the frequency-removing characteristics of the growth curve and each individual time series retains a different amount of low frequency. Thus, the 2/3S is less suitable for reconstructing climate or to compare environmental impacts on tree growth between groups – both of which comprise the majority of dendrochronological analyses – as it will likely introduce a temporal frequency bias. Within a long chronology it will result in decreasing power to resolve low frequencies towards present in a living-only trees setting, especially when the youngest segment lengths are 100 years and shorter, and more generally during the period where the chronology is constructed from samples with shorter segment lengths compared to the period with longer segment lengths. The frequency bias will also significantly impact regression slopes and correlation coefficients, possibly distorting analyses investigating multiple groups with different mean segment lengths. Highlighting these potential biases, I recommend the community to not use this method on an individual basis but rather to use a fixed spline stiffness for all samples based on the n% criterion (n = 67) of e.g. the mean segment length of the entire dataset.     

Quantitative assessment of the accuracy for three interpolation techniques in kinematic analysis of human movement

Marker obstruction during human movement analyses requires interpolation to reconstruct missing kinematic data. This investigation quantifies errors associated with three interpolation techniques and varying interpolated durations. Right ulnar styloid kinematics from 13 participants performing manual wheelchair ramp ascent were reconstructed using linear, cubic spline and local coordinate system (LCS) interpolation from 11–90% of one propulsive cycle. Elbow angles (flexion/extension and pronation/supination) were calculated using real and reconstructed kinematics. Reconstructed kinematics produced maximum elbow flexion/extension errors of 37.1 (linear), 23.4 (spline) and 9.3 (LCS) degrees. Reconstruction errors are unavoidable [minimum errors of 6.7 mm (LCS); 0.29 mm (spline); 0.42 mm (linear)], emphasising careful motion capture system setup must be performed to minimise data interpolation. For the observed movement, LCS-based interpolation (average error of 14.3 mm; correlation of 0.976 for elbow flexion/extension) was most suitable for reconstructing durations longer than 200 ms. Spline interpolation was superior for shorter durations.     

Geometric morphometrics as a tool for interpreting evolutionary transitions in the black fly wing (Diptera: Simuliidae)

A geometric morphometric analysis was conducted on wing‐vein landmarks on exemplar species of the family Simuliidae of the following genera: Parasimulium, Gymnopais, Twinnia, Helodon, Prosimulium, Greniera, Stegopterna, Tlalocomyia, Cnephia, Ectemnia, Metacnephia, Austrosimulium, and Simulium. Generalized least squares superimposition was performed on landmarks, followed by a principal component analysis on resulting Procrustes distances. Patterns of shape change along the principal component axes were visualized using the thin‐plate spline. The analysis revealed wing shape diversity through (1) the insertion points of the subcosta and R₁, resulting in the terminus of the costa exhibiting a trend towards a more apical position on the wing, and (2) the insertion point of the humeral cross vein, resulting in the anterior branch of the media exhibiting a trend toward a more basal position on the wing. Canonical variates analysis of Procrustes distances successfully assigned all exemplar species into their a priori taxonomic groupings. The diversity in wing shape reveals a trend towards decreased length of basal radial cell and increased costalization of anterior wing veins in the evolutionary transition from plesiomorphic prosimuliines to more derived simuliines. The functional significance of these evolutionary transitions is discussed. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London     

Estimation in independent observer line transect surveys for clustered populations

This paper introduces a framework for animal abundance estimation in independent observer line transect surveys of clustered populations. The framework generalizes an approach given in Chen (1999, Environmental and Ecological Statistics 6, in press) to accommodate heterogeneity in detection caused by cluster size and other covariates. Both parametric and nonparametric estimators for the local effective search widths, given the covariates, can be derived from the framework. A nonparametric estimator based on conditional kernel density estimation is proposed and studied owing to its flexibility in modeling the detection functions. A real data set on harbor porpoise in the North Sea is analyzed.     

Semiparametric estimation of tag loss and reporting rates for tag-recovery experiments using exact time-at-liberty data

We present a semiparametric likelihood approach to estimating reporting rates and tag-loss rates from the tags returned from capture-recapture studies. Such studies are commonly used to estimate critical population parameters. Tag loss rates are estimated using double-tagged animals, while reporting rates are estimated using information from high-reward tags. A likelihood function is constructed based on the conditional distribution of the type of tag returned (low or high reward, single or double tag), given that a tag has been returned. This involves many sparse 5 x 1 tag-return contingency tables, and choosing a good functional form for the tag loss rate is difficult with such data. We model tag-loss rates using monotone-smoothing splines, and use these nonparametric estimates to diagnose the parametric form of the tag-loss rate. The nonparametric methods can also be used directly to model tag-loss rates.     

Estimating the accuracy of polymerase chain reaction-based tests using endpoint dilution

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based tests for various microorganisms or target DNA sequences are generally acknowledged to be highly "sensitive," yet the concept of sensitivity is ill-defined in the literature on these tests. We propose that sensitivity should be expressed as a function of the number of target DNA molecules in the sample (or specificity, when the target number is 0). However, estimating this "sensitivity curve" is problematic, since it is difficult to construct samples with a fixed number of targets. Nonetheless, using serially diluted replicate aliquots of a known concentration of the target DNA sequence, we show that it is possible to disentangle random variations in the number of target DNA molecules from the underlying test sensitivity. We develop parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric (spline-based) models for the sensitivity curve. The methods are compared on a new test for M. genitalium.     

Contrasting patterns of radiation in African and Australian Restionaceae

The floras of the Mediterranean-climate areas of southern Africa and southwestern Australia are remarkably species rich. Because the two areas are at similar latitudes and in similar positions on their respective continents, they have probably had similar Cenozoic climatic histories. Here we test the prediction that the evolution of the species richness in the two areas followed a similar temporal progression by comparing the rates of lineage accumulation for African and Australian Restionaceae. Restionaceae (Poales) are typical and often dominant elements in the fynbos vegetation of the Cape Floristic Region of southern Africa and the kwongan vegetation of the Southwestern Floristic Province of Western Australia. The phylogeny of the family was estimated from combined datasets for rbcL and trnL-F sequences and a large morphological dataset; these datasets are largely congruent. The monophyly of Restionaceae is supported and a basal division into an African clade (approximately 350 species) and an Australian clade (146 species) corroborated. There is also support for a futher subdivision of these two large sister-clades, but the terminal resolution within the African clade is very weak. Fossil pollen records provided a minimum age of the common ancestor of Australian and African Restionaceae as 64-71 million years ago, and this date was used to calibrate a molecular clock. A molecular clock was rejected by a likelihood ratio test; therefore, rate changes between the lineages were smoothed using nonparametric rate smoothing. The rate-corrected ages were used to construct a plot of lineages through time. During the Palaeogene the Australian lineage diversity increased consistent with the predictions of the constant birthrate model, while the African lineage diversity showed a dramatic increase in diversification rate in the Miocene. Incomplete sampling obscures the patterns in the Neogene, but extending the trends to the modern extant diversity suggests that this acceleration in the speciation rate continued in the African clade, whereas the Australian clade retained a constant diversification rate. The substantial morphological and anatomical similarity between the African and Australian Restionaceae appear to preclude morphological innovations as possible explanations for the intercontinental differences. Most likely these differences are due to the greater geographical extent and ecological variation in temperate Australia than temperate Africa, which might have provided refugia for basal Restionaceae lineages, whereas the more mountainous terrain of southern Africa might have provided the selective regimes for a more rapid, recent speciation.