Mortality incidence estimation using federal death certificate and natality data with an application to Tay–Sachs disease

For confidentiality reasons, US federal death certificate data are incomplete with regards to the dates of birth and death for the decedents, making calculation of total lifetime of a decedent impossible and thus estimation of mortality incidence difficult. This paper proposes the use of natality data and an imputation‐based method to estimate age‐specific mortality incidence rates in the face of this missing information. By utilizing previously determined probabilities of birth, a birth date and death date are imputed for every decedent in the dataset. Thus, the birth cohort of each individual is imputed, and the total on‐study time can be calculated. This idea is implemented in two approaches for estimation of mortality incidence rates. The first is an extension of a person‐time approach, while the second is an extension of a life table approach. Monte Carlo simulations showed that both approaches perform well in comparison to the ideal complete data methods, but that the person‐time method is preferred. An application to Tay–Sachs disease is demonstrated. It is concluded that the imputation methods proposed provide valid estimates of the incidence of death from death certificate data without the need for additional assumptions under which usual mortality rates provide valid estimates.     

Confidence Intervals for the Mean of a Poisson Distribution: A Review

The paper provides a comprehensive review of methodology for setting confidence intervals for the parameter of a Poisson distribution. The results are illustrated by a numerical example.     

Numerical Simulations and Long-Column Tests of LNAPL Displacement and Trapping by a Fluctuating Water Table

Long-column laboratory tests were performed to validate improvements to the MOFAT program for simulating LNAPL displacement and entrapment in response to a fluctuating water table. The long-column tests consisted of a fluctuating water table and its subsequent displacement and entrapment of an LNAPL. The modifications of MOFAT include a linear LNAPL trapping estimate and a new scaling technique for the inhibition portion of the fluctuation (water table rise). Improved prediction of the LNAPL trapping was obtained by assuming the amount of LNAPL that is trapped by a rising water table is proportional to the antecedent water content of the porous medium. The pressure-saturation relationship for the air-water drainage system was scaled to estimate the LNAPL-water and air-LNAPL drainage relationships. Scaled inhibition pressure-saturation relationships are improved by incorporating a correction for contact angle hysteresis and surface roughness. The incorporation of these changes into MOFAT led to noticable improvements in the numerical simulation of the experimental data.     

Mesocyclops longisetus effects on survivorship of Aedes aegypti immature stages in car tyres

Abstract .The effect of the introduction of the entomophagous copepod Mesocyclops longisetus (Acuacultura F.C.B. strain) on the survival of Aedes aegypti immature stages in car tyres was evaluated under semi-natural conditions in the municipality of Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Life tables were constructed for the immature stages of the mosquito in the presence and absence of M. longisetus , and the survival data were compared using log–linear models. The data set was adjusted using the GLIM statistical package and the quality of adjustment was evaluated with a chi-squared test . Survivorship curves were constructed for each treatment.
In the absence of M. longisetus , the survivorship of Ae. aegypti immature stages averaged 9%. The highest mortality rate was observed during the fourth larval instar (54%) and the resulting survival pattern corresponded to a type II survivorship curve. The mortality rate of Ae. aegypti first-instar larvae (fifty per tyre) increased more than 200-fold in the presence of M. longisetus (twenty per tyre) and the highest mortality was during the first two larval instars, where it reached 98.9%, with a resulting survivorship of 0.2%. Overall mortality was sixfold greater in the presence of the copepod than in its absence. The survival pattern of immature stages of Ae. aegypti in the presence of the copepod corresponded to a type III survivorship curve. As M. longisetus was so effective against Ae. aegypti immature stages in tyres under semi-natural conditions, its long-term effectiveness should be evaluated under socially and ecologically realistic field conditions in Mexico.     

Behavioral signatures of structured feature detection during courtship in Drosophila

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Some New Aspects of 2 × 2 Table Measures and Their Applications

The paper deals with the analysis of 2 × 2 table measures and describes several new possibilities for applying them. An estimate is given for HELLMICH's asymmetric K-measure and a possible extension of the contingency concept in a special 2×2 case is presented. The concept introduced and the recommended computer application of the 2×2 table measures is supported by new results obtained for the relationship between jaw joint pains and noises examined earlier by F. SCHMID and C. ZSCHEGE. With a larger number of observations the opportunity arises for a deeper analysis of this dental problem using path analysis. The plan of evaluation and the conncetion between the variables examined is illustrated by a path-diagram. The association tables determined on the basis of the (C) values introduced during the examination of jaw joint disturbances using association analysis draw attention to the special role of the left side of mastication. The paper raises ideas for further generalisations and indicates where further research is needed.     

Semi-field demographic performance of the invasive planthopper,Orosanga japonica (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) on two host plants

Orosanga japonica Melichar (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) is an invasive polyphagous pest in Iran. The planthopper damaged host plants by sap-sucking and egg laying on new twigs. This study aimed to determine the life table parameters of O. japonica on Rubus ulmifolius Schoot (elm leaf blackberry) and Melia azedarach L. (chinaberry) under field conditions in Rudsar (North of Iran) during 2019–2020. The collected life history data were analyzed based on age-stage, two-sex life table theory. The results showed that the incubation period of O. japonica was too long (≈ 270 days) on both host plants. The nymphs emerged from mid-May 2020. The planthopper had five nymphal stages under field conditions. The nymphal duration was 41.39 ± 0.56 days and 38.13 ± 0.62 days on R. ulmifolius and M. azedarach, respectively. The total preadult survival rates were 53.2% and 51.7% on R. ulmifolius and M. azedarach, respectively. Based on the results, a significant shorter total developmental time was observed on M. azedarach. When adults emerged in late July, they laid eggs after 26.05 days and 26.75 days on R. ulmifolius and M. azedarach, respectively. The fecundity on M. azedarach (131.69 egg/female) was significantly higher than that on R. ulmifolius. However, the life table parameters were all not significantly different on the two host plants. The intrinsic rate of increase (r) were 0.0097 ± 0.0005 day⁻¹ and 0.0105 ± 0.0006 day⁻¹ on R. ulmifolius and M. azedarach, respectively. Generally, these findings could be helpful to establish an efficient management strategy for this exotic pest.     

The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.