Legacy effects and memory loss: how contingencies moderate the response of rocky intertidal biofilms to present and past extreme events

Understanding how historical processes modulate the response of ecosystems to perturbations is becoming increasingly important. In contrast to the growing interest in projecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future climate scenarios, how legacy effects originating from historical conditions drive change in ecosystems remains largely unexplored. Using experiments in combination with stochastic antecedent modelling, we evaluated how extreme warming, sediment deposition and grazing events modulated the ecological memory of rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (EMPB). We found memory effects in the non‐clustered scenario of disturbance (60 days apart), where EMPB biomass fluctuated in time, but not under clustered disturbances (15 days apart), where EMPB biomass was consistently low. A massive grazing event impacted on EMPB biomass in a second run of the experiment, also muting ecological memory. Our results provide empirical support to the theoretical expectation that stochastic fluctuations promote ecological memory, but also show that contingencies may lead to memory loss.     

Prognostic implications of changes in cardiac troponin I levels in patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome

Abstract

Objective: Information is limited on the prognostic implications of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) changes during the first days of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS).

Methods: High-sensitivity cTnI levels were measured at study inclusion and after 48?h in 1615 conservatively managed NSTE-ACS patients from the Global Use of Strategies To Open Occluded Coronary Arteries (GUSTO) IV trial.

Results: Patients with moderately increased cTnI levels and without a relevant decrease over time had a significantly raised mortality at 30 days and 1 year. No relevant associations between cTnI changes and recurrent myocardial infarction were seen.

Conclusion: The cTnI change is predictive for subsequent mortality in selected conservatively managed NSTE-ACS patients.     

A novel approach for the identification of pointer years

In the context of extreme event ecology, identification of pointer years has become a central aspect of tree-ring research. However, the variety of methods employed for pointer year detection since the introduction of the concept in 1979 impedes a direct comparison among studies. Moreover, most commonly used methods partly rely on arbitrarily selected thresholds, resulting in a potentially inconsistent application of those means. To overcome these discrepancies, we here introduce the “standardized growth change” method SGC, which relies on probability density functions of standardized year-to-year ring width differences and internationally accepted significance levels. To evaluate the performance of SGC, it is applied to 1000 pseudo-populations with known properties as well as to an existing Scots pine tree ring data set and compare the results derived from SGC to the four most frequently applied pointer year detection methods. Our comparative evaluation indicates SGC to supersede the other considered methods. In particular, it identified all artificially introduced pointer years in the pseudo-populations, whereas the other methods missed between 3 and 96 percent of known events. A detailed evaluation of misclassifications by the other approaches points out method-specific weaknesses. Finally, we provide technical aspects and recommendations for the application of SGC in a broader context.     

Roles of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events in acute myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention

This study investigated roles of serum ST2, IL‐33 and BNP in predicting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Blood samples were collected from the included AMI patients (n = 180) who underwent PCI. All patients were divided into the MACEs and MACEs‐free groups. Enzyme‐linked immunosorbent assay was performed to measure serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP. Severity of coronary artery lesion was evaluated by Gensini score. Pearson correlation analysis was used. A receiver operating characteristics curve was drawn to evaluate the potential roles of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP in predicting MACEs, and Kaplan–Meier curve to analyse the 1‐year overall survival rate. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyse the independent risk factors for MACEs. Compared with the MACEs‐free group, the serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP were significantly higher in the MACEs group. Serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP were positively correlated with each other and positively correlated with Gensini score. The area under curves of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP, respectively, were 0.872, 0.675 and 0.902. The relative sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 76.27% and 85.92%, 69.49% and 58.68%, as well as, 96.61% and 77.69%. Serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP were independent risk factors for MACEs. The 1‐year overall survival rate was higher in AMI patients with lower serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP. In conclusion, serum levels of ST2, IL‐33 and BNP have potential value in predicting MACEs in AMI patients undergoing PCI.     

Two-dimensional intraventricular flow pattern visualization using the image-based computational fluid dynamics

The image-based computational fluid dynamics (IB-CFD) technique, as the combination of medical images and the CFD method, is utilized in this research to analyze the left ventricle (LV) hemodynamics. The research primarily aims to propose a semi-automated technique utilizing some freely available and commercial software packages in order to simulate the LV hemodynamics using the IB-CFD technique. In this research, moreover, two different physiological time-resolved 2D models of a patient-specific LV with two different types of aortic and mitral valves, including the orifice-type valves and integrated with rigid leaflets, are adopted to visualize the process of developing intraventricular vortex formation and propagation. The blood flow pattern over the whole cardiac cycle of two models is also compared to investigate the effect of utilizing different valve types in the process of the intraventricular vortex formation. Numerical findings indicate that the model with integrated valves can predict more complex intraventricular flow that can match better the physiological flow pattern in comparison to the orifice-type model.     

Cardiac Stress Test Induced by Dobutamine and Monitored by Cardiac Catheterization in Mice

Dobutamine is a β-adrenergic agonist with an affinity higher for receptor expressed in the heart (β₁) than for receptors expressed in the arteries (β₂). When systemically administered, it increases cardiac demand. Thus, dobutamine unmasks abnormal rhythm or ischemic areas potentially at risk of infarction. Monitoring of heart function during a cardiac stress test can be performed by either ecocardiography or cardiac catheterization. The latter is an invasive but more accurate and informative technique that the former.Cardiac stress test induced by dobutamine and monitored by cardiac catheterization accomplished as described here allows, in a single experiment, the measurement of the following hemodynamic parameters: heart rate (HR), systolic pressure, diastolic pressure, end-diastolic pressure, maximal positive pressure development (dP/dtmax) and maximal negative pressure development (dP/dt_min), at baseline conditions and under increasing doses of dobutamine.As expected, in normal mice we observed a dobutamine dose-related increase in HR, dP/dt_max and dP/dt_min. Moreover, at the highest dose tested (12 ng/g/min) the cardiac decompensation of high fat diet-induced obese mice was unmasked.