Parametric and Parametrically Smoothed Distribution-Free Proportional Hazard Models with Discrete Data

This paper discusses discrete time proportional hazard models and suggests a new class of flexible hazard functions. Explicitly modeling the discreteness of data is important since standard continuous models are biased; allowing for flexibility in the hazard estimation is desirable since strong parametric restrictions are likely to be similarly misleading. Simulation compare continuous and discrete models when data are generated by grouping and demonstrate that simple approximations recover underlying hazards well and outperform nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates in term of mean squared error.     

Epilogue — Demography and anthropology

As a conclusion, this paper reviews briefly the content of the volume. The wealth of demographic data has not been adequately exploited in anthropology; this is why this publication is valuable in showing attempts to apply demographic data in a variety of anthropological problems. This symposium has explored many interesting points which we recall here. Yet it has also opened up a whole range of further questions on the material presented as well as in this broad field. Several directions of research could be developed, for instance, testing among human populations, over long periods, the ecological thoughts of ecosystems evolving as a cascade of instabilities, rather than a succession of equilibrium states. Let us also recall the pervasive nature of demographic facts in topics such as the energy cycle or the genetic structure and evolution of human populations.     

Fish population structuring in the North Sea: understanding processes and mechanisms from studies of the movements of adults

Few fish species form single, panmictic populations throughout their geographic range, most form subpopulations or 'stocks' with differing levels of interconnectivity. Different patterns of interconnectivity between subpopulations will give rise to different responses to exploitation and management, but they will also have different capacities to generate the genetic and phenotypic differences often used to discriminate between stocks. Consequently, knowledge of ontogenetic and seasonal patterns in the distribution, movement and behaviour of individuals is crucial to identifying population substructure. This paper considers the evidence gathered about movements and behaviour of adult fishes from mark-recapture and electronic tagging studies for a number of fish species in the North Sea and elsewhere in U.K. waters in an attempt to understand population structure and the processes that may give rise to it.     

Tissue-Characteristic Expression of Mouse Proteome

The mouse is a valuable model organism for biomedical research. Here, we established a comprehensive spectral library and the data-independent acquisition–based quantitative proteome maps for 41 mouse organs, including some rarely reported organs such as the cornea, retina, and nine paired organs. The mouse spectral library contained 178,304 peptides from 12,320 proteins, including 1678 proteins not reported in previous mouse spectral libraries. Our data suggested that organs from the nervous system and immune system expressed the most distinct proteome compared with other organs. We also found characteristic protein expression of immune-privileged organs, which may help understanding possible immune rejection after organ transplantation. Each tissue type expressed characteristic high-abundance proteins related to its physiological functions. We also uncovered some tissue-specific proteins which have not been reported previously. The testis expressed highest number of tissue-specific proteins. By comparison of nine paired organs including kidneys, testes, and adrenal glands, we found left organs exhibited higher levels of antioxidant enzymes. We also observed expression asymmetry for proteins related to the apoptotic process, tumor suppression, and organ functions between the left and right sides. This study provides a comprehensive spectral library and a quantitative proteome resource for mouse studies.     

An exploration of fixed and random effects selection for longitudinal binary outcomes in the presence of nonignorable dropout

We explore a Bayesian approach to selection of variables that represent fixed and random effects in modeling of longitudinal binary outcomes with missing data caused by dropouts. We show via analytic results for a simple example that nonignorable missing data lead to biased parameter estimates. This bias results in selection of wrong effects asymptotically, which we can confirm via simulations for more complex settings. By jointly modeling the longitudinal binary data with the dropout process that possibly leads to nonignorable missing data, we are able to correct the bias in estimation and selection. Mixture priors with a point mass at zero are used to facilitate variable selection. We illustrate the proposed approach using a clinical trial for acute ischemic stroke.     

Pollen-based biome reconstruction for southern Europe and Africa 18,000 yr bp

Pollen data from 18,000 ¹⁴C yr bp were compiled in order to reconstruct biome distributions at the last glacial maximum in southern Europe and Africa. Biome reconstructions were made using the objective biomization method applied to pollen counts using a complete list of dryland taxa wherever possible. Consistent and major differences from present‐day biomes are shown. Forest and xerophytic woods/scrub were replaced by steppe, both in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa, except in south‐western Cape Province where fynbos (xerophytic scrub) persisted. Sites in the tropical highlands, characterized today by evergreen forest, were dominated by steppe and/or xerophytic vegetation (cf. today’s Ericaceous belt and Afroalpine grassland) at the last glacial maximum. Available data from the tropical lowlands are sparse but suggest that the modern tropical rain forest was largely replaced by tropical seasonal forest while the modern seasonal or dry forests were encroached on by savanna or steppe. Montane forest elements descended to lower elevations than today.     

Community persistence in Broadstone Stream (U.K.) over three decades

1. Few detailed long-term data sets exist for fresh waters with which to examine large-scale temporal changes in community composition. Consequently, insight into community persistence has been restricted to a few, contingent case studies. We collated and analysed data for the aquatic macroinvertebrate community of Broadstone Stream in south-east England, spanning three decades. The pH of this naturally acid stream has risen progressively since the 1970s, and we sought to examine the potential effects of this environmental change upon the community.
2. Persistence within Broadstone was high when compared with other systems that have been analysed using similar methods. The stream was characterised by a `core' community of eight taxa that were always present, and contributed 75–97% of total invertebrate abundance, with a trailing limb of progressively rarer and more acid-sensitive taxa. There was little species turnover, although the time-series exceeded 20 generations for most species.
3. Despite this high persistence, a long-term response to rising pH was detected: species indicating profound acidity (identified a priori from independent studies) have declined since the 1970s, whereas indicators of moderate acidity increased. The structure of the community food web has also changed since the 1970s, with increased predator diversity and abundance, and a lengthening of food chains following the invasion of a new top predator.
4. These changes in the community appeared to be driven by an interaction between pH and climate. The unusually hot, dry summers characteristic of the 1990s may have raised pH during the more sensitive (i.e. early) stages of the life-cycle, and thus provided a window of opportunity for less acid-tolerant taxa to colonise and become established. Changes in pH appeared to set the boundaries of the available local species pool, within which biotic interactions ultimately shaped the community.