Empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning a regional aquatic long-term monitoring program using causal modelling

Conceptual models are an integral facet of long-term monitoring programs. Proposed linkages between drivers, stressors, and ecological indicators are identified within the conceptual model of most mandated programs. We empirically evaluate a conceptual model developed for a regional aquatic and riparian monitoring program using causal models (i.e., Bayesian path analysis). We assess whether data gathered for regional status and trend estimation can also provide insights on why a stream may deviate from reference conditions. We target the hypothesized causal pathways for how anthropogenic drivers of road density, percent grazing, and percent forest within a catchment affect instream biological condition. We found instream temperature and fine sediments in arid sites and only fine sediments in mesic sites accounted for a significant portion of the maximum possible variation explainable in biological condition among managed sites. However, the biological significance of the direct effects of anthropogenic drivers on instream temperature and fine sediments were minimal or not detected. Consequently, there was weak to no biological support for causal pathways related to anthropogenic drivers’ impact on biological condition. With weak biological and statistical effect sizes, ignoring environmental contextual variables and covariates that explain natural heterogeneity would have resulted in no evidence of human impacts on biological integrity in some instances. For programs targeting the effects of anthropogenic activities, it is imperative to identify both land use practices and mechanisms that have led to degraded conditions (i.e., moving beyond simple status and trend estimation). Our empirical evaluation of the conceptual model underpinning the long-term monitoring program provided an opportunity for learning and, consequently, we discuss survey design elements that require modification to achieve question driven monitoring, a necessary step in the practice of adaptive monitoring. We suspect our situation is not unique and many programs may suffer from the same inferential disconnect. Commonly, the survey design is optimized for robust estimates of regional status and trend detection and not necessarily to provide statistical inferences on the causal mechanisms outlined in the conceptual model, even though these relationships are typically used to justify and promote the long-term monitoring of a chosen ecological indicator. Our application demonstrates a process for empirical evaluation of conceptual models and exemplifies the need for such interim assessments in order for programs to evolve and persist.     

Lactate modeling and its application to endurance training

1. 1. In this short review, previous studies regarding the modeling of lactate (La) response to exercise and its application to endurance training have been summarized.

2. 2. Additionally the result of a recent study by the present authors are shown.

3. 3. Several models for La response to step and ramp exercise are already proposed and deductions derived from them are used for practical purposes such as the prediction of race performance in middle-and long-distance runners as well as for construction of their training regimens.

4. 4. Only a limited number of models however have tried to quantify whole body La kinetics to exercise in humans concomitantly with describing physiological mechanisms underlying the observed phenomenon.

5. 5. In a recent study described further in this paper a 2 compartment model was used for the purpose of clarifying the current “La production vs degradation” controversy during La adaptation to training.

6. 6. It was determined from this investigation that the La metabolic clearance rate during recovery is enhanced by the endurance training.

7. 7. This is in accordance with another recent observation of an increased La metabolic clearance rate at high absolute work rates and all relative work rates during exercise.

A structured decision making analysis to increase a Red-cockaded Woodpecker population and balance stakeholder objectives for a National Forest

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) savanna is a biodiverse ecosystem native to the southeastern United States. Due to fire suppression and timber harvest, longleaf pine has declined to 3% of its original range. The extant forest provides habitat for many threatened and endangered species, including the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis; RCW), a cavity-nesting bird that co-evolved with fire-maintained forest, resulting in savanna-like old-growth forest as the bird’s preferred habitat. Our study site, the Oakmulgee Ranger District of the Talladega National Forest, harbors the largest RCW population in Alabama and is managed with an emphasis on RCW conservation. The United States Forest Service (USFS) also manages the Oakmulgee for uses such as wildlife conservation, recreation, and timber harvest. Despite efforts to restore RCW habitat and install artificial cavities in the Oakmulgee, the number of RCW groups has not exceeded 123, although the Recovery Plan objective is 394 groups. Our project was motivated by the USFS expressing interest in determining why the RCW population has not exceeded 123 groups. We proposed using structured decision making (SDM) with the USFS and other stakeholders to address this problem. Our goals were to explicitly define management objectives, build a Bayesian belief network with a model of how decision alternatives are believed to affect management objectives, and use a sensitivity analysis to determine the part of the model to which RCW population growth was most sensitive. Therefore, results from the analysis were expected to give insights into 1) ecological factors limiting RCW population growth, 2) how management can overcome these limits, plus 3) the relative expected ability of different decision alternatives to satisfy multiple objectives in addition to increasing RCW group number. We held four SDM workshops with representatives from the USFS, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the Longleaf Alliance, the Birmingham Audubon Society, and local residents. Stakeholder objectives consisted of maximizing the following: RCW group number, forest health, recreational enjoyment, community economic health, and aesthetics. Cavity insert installation had the greatest probability of increasing the number of RCW groups. The number of RCW groups was most affected by cavity availability, adult survival, reproductive output, food availability, and herbaceous understory. Prescribed burning was most likely to meet the combination of stakeholder objectives, followed by midstory removal. Our findings suggest that cavity installation efforts may need to be increased in the Oakmulgee to increase RCW group number. Also it could be beneficial to investigate how RCWs select cavity tree locations with the goal of increasing the chance that RCWs use artificial cavities to form new groups. The Bayesian belief network provided insights into factors limiting RCW population growth and how management can overcome these limits. The Bayesian belief network also can be used to prioritize management methods in the Oakmulgee given stakeholder objectives and time constraints.     

A new adaptive time step method for unsteady flow simulations in a human lung

The innovation presented is a method for adaptive time-stepping that allows clustering of time steps in portions of the cycle for which flow variables are rapidly changing, based on the concept of using a uniform step in a relevant dependent variable rather than a uniform step in the independent variable time. A user-defined function was developed to adapt the magnitude of the time step (adaptive time step) to a defined rate of change in inlet velocity. Quantitative comparison indicates that the new adaptive time stepping method significantly improves accuracy for simulations using an equivalent number of time steps per cycle.     

On partial local smoothing rules for curve estimation

We compare the performances of local and global rules for smoothingparameter choice, in terms of asymptotic mean squared errorsof the resulting estimators. In some instances there is surprisinglylittle to choose between local and global approaches; our analysisidentifies contexts where the differences are small or large.This work motivates development of smoothing rules that forma ‘half-way house’ between local and global smoothing.There, interpolation provides a basis for partial local smoothing.A key result shows that interpolation on even a coarse gridcan produce a very good approximation to full local smoothing.Our theoretical and numerical results lead us to suggest linearinterpolation of a bandwidth obtained by integral approximationson discrete intervals.     

Range optimization for target and organs at risk in dynamic adaptive passive scattering proton beam therapy – A proof of concept

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to design and develop a new range optimization for target and organs at risk (OARs) in dynamic adaptive proton beam therapy (PBT).MethodsThe new range optimization for target and OARs (RO-TO) was optimized to maintain target dose coverage but not to increase the dose exposure of OARs, while the other procedure, range optimization for target (RO-T), only focused on target dose coverage. A retrospective analysis of a patient who received PBT for abdominal lymph node metastases was performed to show the effectiveness of our new approach. The original plan (OP), which had a total dose of 60 Gy (relative biological effectiveness; RBE), was generated using six treatment fields. Bone-based registration (BR) and tumor-based registration (TR) were performed on each pretreatment daily CT image dataset acquired once every four fractions, to align the isocenter.ResultsBoth range adaptive approaches achieved better coverage (D_95%) and homogeneity (D_5%−D_95%) than BR and TR only. However, RO-T showed the greatest increases in D_2cc and D_mean values of the small intestine and stomach and exceeded the limitations of dose exposure for those OARs. RO-TO showed comparable or superior dose sparing compared with the OP for all OARs.ConclusionsOur results suggest that BR and TR alone may reduce target dose coverage, and that RO-T may increase the dose exposure to the OARs. RO-TO may achieve the planned dose delivery to the target and OARs more efficiently than the OP. The technique requires testing on a large clinical dataset.     

Validation of a deformable image registration produced by a commercial treatment planning system in head and neck

In recent years one of the areas of interest in radiotherapy has been adaptive radiation therapy (ART), with the most efficient way of performing ART being the use of deformable image registration (DIR). In this paper we use the distances between points of interest (POIs) in the computed tomography (CT) and the cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) acquisition images and the inverse consistence (IC) property to validate the RayStation treatment planning system (TPS) DIR algorithm. This study was divided into two parts: Firstly the distance-accuracy of the TPS DIR algorithm was ascertained by placing POIs on anatomical features in the CT and CBCT images from five head and neck cancer patients. Secondly, a method was developed for studying the implication of these distances on the dose by using the IC. This method compared the dose received by the structures in the CT, and the structures that were quadruply-deformed. The accuracy of the TPS was 1.7 ± 0.8 mm, and the distance obtained with the quadruply-deformed IC method was 1.7 ± 0.9 mm, i.e. the difference between the IC method multiplied by two, and that of the TPS validation method, was negligible. Moreover, the IC method shows very little variation in the dose-volume histograms when comparing the original and quadruply-deformed structures. This indicates that this algorithm is useful for planning adaptive radiation treatments using CBCT in head and neck cancer patients, although these variations must be taken into account when making a clinical decision to adapt a treatment plan.     

Effects of training on axial muscle of two cyprinid species: Chondrostoma nasus (L.) and Leuciscus cephalus (L.)

The effect of an endurance training program lasting 17 weeks was studied in two cyprinid species, Chondrostoma nasus (L.) and Leuciscus cephalus (L.). Red, intermediate and white axial muscle were investigated. Morphometrical analysis revealed that training induced, in both species, increased red and intermediate muscle mass, fibre diameter and capillarization. Differences between species in the response to training were observed for volume densities of mitochondria and lipid. In contrast to C. nasus, L. cephalus show higher values for these compartments in red and intermediate fibres. The results are considered adaptational changes which increase the aerobic capacity of red and intermediate muscle fibres to meet higher sustained swimming activities.