Species abundance distributions: moving beyond single prediction theories to integration within an ecological framework

Species abundance distributions (SADs) follow one of ecology's oldest and most universal laws – every community shows a hollow curve or hyperbolic shape on a histogram with many rare species and just a few common species. Here, we review theoretical, empirical and statistical developments in the study of SADs. Several key points emerge. (i) Literally dozens of models have been proposed to explain the hollow curve. Unfortunately, very few models are ever rejected, primarily because few theories make any predictions beyond the hollow-curve SAD itself. (ii) Interesting work has been performed both empirically and theoretically, which goes beyond the hollow-curve prediction to provide a rich variety of information about how SADs behave. These include the study of SADs along environmental gradients and theories that integrate SADs with other biodiversity patterns. Central to this body of work is an effort to move beyond treating the SAD in isolation and to integrate the SAD into its ecological context to enable making many predictions. (iii) Moving forward will entail understanding how sampling and scale affect SADs and developing statistical tools for describing and comparing SADs. We are optimistic that SADs can provide significant insights into basic and applied ecological science.     

Median estimation of chemical constituents for sampling on two occasions under a log‐normal model

Sampling from a finite population on multiple occasions introduces dependencies between the successive samples when overlap is designed. Such sampling designs lead to efficient statistical estimates, while they allow estimating changes over time for the targeted outcomes. This makes them very popular in real‐world statistical practice. Sampling with partial replacement can also be very efficient in biological and environmental studies where estimation of toxicants and its trends over time is the main interest. Sampling with partial replacement is designed here on two occasions in order to estimate the median concentration of chemical constituents quantified by means of liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Such data represent relative peak areas resulting from the chromatographic analysis. They are therefore positive‐valued and skewed data, and are commonly fitted very well by the log‐normal model. A log‐normal model is assumed here for chemical constituents quantified in mainstream cigarette smoke in a real case study. Combining design‐based and model‐based approaches for statistical inference, we seek for the median estimation of chemical constituents by sampling with partial replacement on two time occasions. We also discuss the limitations of extending the proposed approach to other skewed population models. The latter is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

The aggregate site frequency spectrum for comparative population genomic inference

Understanding how assemblages of species responded to past climate change is a central goal of comparative phylogeography and comparative population genomics, an endeavour that has increasing potential to integrate with community ecology. New sequencing technology now provides the potential to perform complex demographic inference at unprecedented resolution across assemblages of nonmodel species. To this end, we introduce the aggregate site frequency spectrum (aSFS), an expansion of the site frequency spectrum to use single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data sets collected from multiple, co‐distributed species for assemblage‐level demographic inference. We describe how the aSFS is constructed over an arbitrary number of independent population samples and then demonstrate how the aSFS can differentiate various multispecies demographic histories under a wide range of sampling configurations while allowing effective population sizes and expansion magnitudes to vary independently. We subsequently couple the aSFS with a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) framework to estimate degree of temporal synchronicity in expansion times across taxa, including an empirical demonstration with a data set consisting of five populations of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Corroborating what is generally understood about the recent postglacial origins of these populations, the joint aSFS/hABC analysis strongly suggests that the stickleback data are most consistent with synchronous expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum (posterior probability = 0.99). The aSFS will have general application for multilevel statistical frameworks to test models involving assemblages and/or communities, and as large‐scale SNP data from nonmodel species become routine, the aSFS expands the potential for powerful next‐generation comparative population genomic inference.     

Lack of support for the time‐dependent molecular evolution hypothesis

There is increasing momentum surrounding the hypothesis that rates of molecular evolution between individuals within contemporary populations are high, and that these rates decrease as a function of time, perhaps over several millions of years, before reaching stationarity. The implications of this are powerful, potentially reshaping our view of how climate history impacts upon both species distribution patterns and the geographic structuring of genetic variation within species. However, our assessment of the hypothesis reveals a lack of theoretical support and empirical evidence for hypothesized magnitudes of time‐dependent rates of molecular evolution, with much of the apparent rate changes coming from artefacts and biases inherent in the methods of rate estimation. Our assessment also reveals a problem with how serial sampling is implemented for mutation rate estimation using ancient DNA samples, rendering published estimates unreliable.     

Biogeography and evolution of Dolichandra (Bignonieae,Bignoniaceae)

Little information on evolutionary relationships of Neotropical organisms or on the factors that have shaped the diversity currently encountered in this region is available. However, it is clear that biotic interactions and abiotic aspects have played important roles for species diversification in the region. This study focuses on Dolichandra (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae), a clade of Neotropical lianas that is distributed broadly across different habitats and with diverse pollination and dispersal systems. We used sequences from two plastid DNA markers (ndhF and rpl32‐trnL) and one nuclear gene (PepC) to infer phylogenetic relationships in Dolichandra using parsimony and Bayesian approaches. We then used this phylogenetic framework as basis to study the biogeographic history, reconstruct the evolution of morphological characters and test the impact of morphology and environment on the diversification of the genus. More specifically, we: (1) time‐calibrate the phylogenetic tree of Dolichandra; (2) estimate the ancestral areas of the various lineages; (3) estimate the ancestral states of discrete and continuous morphological traits; (4) test for phylogenetic signal in environmental and phenotypic data; and (5) test whether morphological characters and/or niche evolution are correlated with cladogenesis. All Dolichandra spp. are monophyletic in the combined molecular phylogeny; relationships among species are generally well resolved, although poorly supported in some instances. The genus is inferred to have originated 36.43–26.23 Mya, possibly in eastern South America. Ancestral state reconstructions of continuous and discrete floral characters inferred a mixed morphology as the ancestral condition for the group. Phylogenetic signal differed between perianth and sexual whorls and gradual evolution was recovered for all traits except style length and anther length. Environmental variables showed no phylogenetic signal and a pattern of variation that was not correlated with branch length, suggesting that environmental transitions were concomitant with speciation. Dispersal is inferred to be the main driver of the differential distribution observed among species. In addition, climatic preferences and floral characters seem to have been important reproductive barriers in Dolichandra. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 403–420.     

Morphological phylogenetic analysis of Ophrys (Orchidaceae): insights from morpho‐anatomical floral traits into the interspecific relationships in an unresolved clade

Reconstructing the phylogeny of the sexually deceptive orchid genus Ophrys is crucial to our understanding of the evolution of its complex floral morphology. Molecular phylogenetic analyses showed that section Pseudophrys forms a well supported clade with Ophrys bombyliflora, O. tenthredinifera and O. speculum, but were unable to elucidate the relationships between these four groups of taxa. Here we conduct a morphological phylogenetic analysis of this unresolved clade of Ophrys based on a data matrix of 45 macro‐ and micromorphological and anatomical floral characters, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference. Our cladistic analysis yielded a single most parsimonious tree and a Bayesian 50% majority‐rule consensus tree which differed in their overall topology but agreed that O. tenthredinifera and O. bombyliflora are not sister groups. The phylogenetic placement of O. tenthredinifera was ambiguous since it shares six valid synapomorphies each with the cluster of O. speculum–O. bombyliflora and with section Pseudophrys. In contrast, O. bombyliflora is most likely the sister group to O. speculum, a finding that rejects an earlier morphological phylogenetic hypothesis and favours the existing molecular trees based on nuclear ITS rather than plastid data. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 454–476.     

Statistical mechanics analysis of sparse data

Inferential structure determination uses Bayesian theory to combine experimental data with prior structural knowledge into a posterior probability distribution over protein conformational space. The posterior distribution encodes everything one can say objectively about the native structure in the light of the available data and additional prior assumptions and can be searched for structural representatives. Here an analogy is drawn between the posterior distribution and the canonical ensemble of statistical physics. A statistical mechanics analysis assesses the complexity of a structure calculation globally in terms of ensemble properties. Analogs of the free energy and density of states are introduced; partition functions evaluate the consistency of prior assumptions with data. Critical behavior is observed with dwindling restraint density, which impairs structure determination with too sparse data. However, prior distributions with improved realism ameliorate the situation by lowering the critical number of observations. An in-depth analysis of various experimentally accessible structural parameters and force field terms will facilitate a statistical approach to protein structure determination with sparse data that avoids bias as much as possible.     

Giants and dwarfs: molecular phylogenies reveal multiple origins of annual spurges within Euphorbia subg. Esula

Euphorbia (Euphorbiaceae) comprises over 2150 species and is thus the second-largest genus of flowering plants. In Europe, it is represented by more than 100 species with highest diversity in the Mediterranean area; the majority of taxa belong to subgenus Esula Pers., including about 500 taxa. The few available phylogenetic studies yielded contrasting results regarding the monophyly of subg. Esula, and the phylogenetic relationships among its constituents remain poorly understood. We have sampled DNA sequences from the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) and the plastid trnT-trnF region from about 100, predominantly European taxa of subg. Esula in order to infer its phylogenetic history. The plastid data support monophyly of subg. Esula whereas the ITS phylogeny, which is generally less resolved, is indecisive in this respect. Although some major clades have partly incongruent positions in the ITS and plastid phylogenies, the taxonomic content of the major terminal clades is congruent in both trees. As traditional sectional delimitations are largely not corroborated, an improved classification is proposed. Character state reconstruction illustrates that the annual life form developed independently several times in different clades of subgenus Esula from perennial ancestors, and that several morphological traits used in previous classifications of Euphorbia developed in parallel in different lineages.