中国贫困地区生态环境脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合关系——基于连片特困区714个贫困县的实证分析

保持生态环境与经济建设的协调发展是新阶段国家扶贫开发的重要策略之一.本文以扶贫开发“新纲要”中规划的14个连片特困区714个贫困县为例,基于敏感性-恢复力-压力度(SRP)的概念模型,构建生态脆弱性评价指标体系,从社会、经济两方面构建了县级尺度上的经济贫困评价指标体系,在此基础上,设计了连片特困区生态环境脆弱与经济贫困耦合模型,对研究区生态脆弱性与经济贫困进行了耦合协调度分析.结果表明: “胡焕庸线”能够很好地刻画连片特困区生态环境脆弱性、经济贫困以及两者耦合协调度的空间分布特征,在扶贫开发过程中,应充分考虑“胡焕庸线”对于我国贫困东西格局划分和减贫的影响;连片特困区脆弱生态环境与经济贫困共生共存,应该充分考虑贫困地区生态环境保护的战略意义,通过保护地区生态环境来达到减少经济贫困的目的;研究区一半左右的县市为衰退失调型,且两者不能做到同步发展.     

‘Community’ and the Re‐Making of 1970s Belfast

This article explores the fraught, shifting terrain of'community’ as lived out in 1970s Belfast. Applying Raymond Williams’ concept of ‘structures of feeling,’ it explores ‘community’ consciousness that is rooted in affection, sensation, and knowledge. It then considers campaigns against redevelopment in west Belfast at this time, and the ways they were inspired and limited by the contemporary experience of ‘community.’ Based on fieldwork, oral histories, and archival resources, the discussion proposes that political action in divided societies is not reducible to sectarian geography. Rather, it advocates analysing the historically specific contours ofnuanced emotional allegiances and spatial associations that motivate and limit political action, and attention to how social content and place figure in conceptions of collectivity.     

Economic development,climate and values: making policy

The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity.     

Integrated conservation and development: evaluating a community-based marine protected area project for equality of socioeconomic impacts

Despite the prevalence of protected areas, evidence of their impacts on people is weak and remains hotly contested in conservation policy. A key question in this debate is whether socioeconomic impacts vary according to social subgroup. Given that social inequity can create conflict and impede poverty reduction, understanding how protected areas differentially affect people is critical to designing them to achieve social and biological goals. Understanding heterogeneous responses to protected areas can improve targeting of management activities and help elucidate the pathways through which impacts of protected areas occur. Here, we assessed whether the socioeconomic impacts of marine protected areas (MPAs)—designed to achieve goals for both conservation and poverty alleviation—differed according to age, gender or religion in associated villages in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using data from pre-, mid- and post-implementation of the MPAs for control and project villages, we found little empirical evidence that impacts on five key socioeconomic indicators related to poverty differed according to social subgroup. We found suggestive empirical evidence that the effect of the MPAs on environmental knowledge differed by age and religion; over the medium and long terms, younger people and Muslims showed greater improvements compared with older people and Christians, respectively.     

秦巴特困区生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合关系——以陕西省山阳县为例

以国家扶贫开发重点县山阳县为例,采用遥感与地理信息技术对研究区的生态脆弱性进行定量评价,并构建以行政村为单元的经济贫困评价指标体系,以此分析研究区生态脆弱性与经济贫困耦合协调度的空间分异特征。研究结果表明:①山阳县生态脆弱性整体处于中等偏高水平,生态脆弱性高的地区集中分布在人类活动频繁的河川地带和水土流失严重的低山区;②贫困程度整体较深,地形条件、资源丰度、交通通达性及经济区位的综合差异形成了山阳县经济贫困的空间分布格局;③将山阳县生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合关系分为失调共损型、失调环境滞后型、失调经济滞后型、协调同步型、协调环境滞后型及协调经济滞后型六种类型,协调同步型行政村比例仅为13.0%,生态脆弱性与经济贫困的耦合协调度整体较低;④失调共损型、协调同步型及协调环境滞后型空间分布较分散,失调环境滞后型、失调经济滞后型及协调经济滞后型有明显的集聚区,失调环境滞后型和协调经济滞后型集中分布在低山河谷区,失调经济滞后型集中分布在海拔1000 m以上的偏远山区。     

Social ties at work: Roma migrants and the community dynamics

This research examines how the internal social dynamics of Roma communities at home shape their propensity to migrate. It is theoretically grounded in the literature on social capital and focuses on two core concepts: ‘migration-rich’ and ‘migration-poor’ communities. The research is based on in-depth interviews and informal discussions with Roma from six (mainly rural) communities of Transylvania (Romania) and includes qualitative data gathered from migrants as well as from people who did not migrate. The findings challenge existing conceptualizations of Roma migration as either explained by poverty alone or by cultural arguments (such as nomadism). This paper indicates that even in the context of severe poverty, social networks are actually decisive for migration. It demonstrates that the patterns of migration tend to be community-specific and shaped by a locally shared culture (ethos) on migration. The research suggests policy choices according to the community profile and its internal dynamics.     

Sprayed Decor

The historical development of early childhood music education (ECE) in Kenya reveals the challenging circumstances under which it has, and continues, to progress. Poverty remains the most formidable hindrance to the success of this area of education. Multiculturalism, the mosaic that defines Kenya's rich heritage, also demands ingenuity from policymakers in formulating sound guiding principles that are inclusive of the diverse cultures inherent in the country. The key to addressing the challenges of ECE lies in strengthening the tripartite relationship between policy makers who are the authors of the current broad policies, the curriculum designers, and the teachers who implement the curriculum. Deliberate networking of their ideas and activities provides a way forward in propelling music education in early childhood.     

Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures

Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield–temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat‐growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security ‘hot spots’. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low‐yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat‐growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low‐ and high‐yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high‐yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production.