Deciphering death: a commentary on Gompertz (1825) ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality,and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’

In 1825, the actuary Benjamin Gompertz read a paper, ‘On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies’, to the Royal Society in which he showed that over much of the adult human lifespan, age-specific mortality rates increased in an exponential manner. Gompertz''s work played an important role in shaping the emerging statistical science that underpins the pricing of life insurance and annuities. Latterly, as the subject of ageing itself became the focus of scientific study, the Gompertz model provided a powerful stimulus to examine the patterns of death across the life course not only in humans but also in a wide range of other organisms. The idea that the Gompertz model might constitute a fundamental ‘law of mortality’ has given way to the recognition that other patterns exist, not only across the species range but also in advanced old age. Nevertheless, Gompertz''s way of representing the function expressive of the pattern of much of adult mortality retains considerable relevance for studying the factors that influence the intrinsic biology of ageing. This commentary was written to celebrate the 350th anniversary of the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.     

The neglected tool in the Bayesian ecologist's shed: a case study testing informative priors' effect on model accuracy

Despite benefits for precision, ecologists rarely use informative priors. One reason that ecologists may prefer vague priors is the perception that informative priors reduce accuracy. To date, no ecological study has empirically evaluated data‐derived informative priors' effects on precision and accuracy. To determine the impacts of priors, we evaluated mortality models for tree species using data from a forest dynamics plot in Thailand. Half the models used vague priors, and the remaining half had informative priors. We found precision was greater when using informative priors, but effects on accuracy were more variable. In some cases, prior information improved accuracy, while in others, it was reduced. On average, models with informative priors were no more or less accurate than models without. Our analyses provide a detailed case study on the simultaneous effect of prior information on precision and accuracy and demonstrate that when priors are specified appropriately, they lead to greater precision without systematically reducing model accuracy.     

种植Bt水稻后的土壤对赤子爱胜蚓生长发育及酶活性的影响

【背景】转基因作物种植的安全问题一直备受关注。关于Bt蛋白对地下非靶标生物影响的研究是转基因作物安全评价的重要内容。【方法】在转Bt基因水稻收割后的稻田里分别种植豌豆、紫云英和油菜作为后茬作物。分别于2013年1、3和6月3次采集不同后茬作物田中的土壤作为材料,于室内饲养赤子爱胜蚓,4周和7周后,测定蚯蚓的生长发育指标、存活率以及体内酶活性的变化情况。此外,还测定了不同深度土壤中Bt蛋白的含量以及用Bt蛋白直接饲喂的赤子爱胜蚓的存活率。【结果】与种植过非转基因水稻MH63的土壤相比,分别种植过含cry2A和cry1C基因水稻后的土壤对赤子爱胜蚓的生长发育、存活率及体内酶活性无显著影响。1月份和3月份转cry2A基因水稻田以及1月份转cry1C基因水稻田采集的表层土样中的Bt蛋白含量显著高于地下10 cm和地下20 cm土壤中的含量,地下2层土样中的Cry2A蛋白含量之间无差异。3月份转cry1C基因水稻田以及6月份转cry2A和转cry1C基因水稻田的土壤中Bt蛋白的含量均不受土壤深度的影响。种植的后茬作物对土壤中的Bt蛋白无显著消解作用。室内模拟土壤最高Bt蛋白浓度的条件下,Cry2A蛋白处理的蚯蚓存活率为96.7%,Cry1C蛋白处理的蚯蚓存活率为95.0%,两者与对照相比无显著差异。【结论与意义】转cry2A和cry1C基因Bt水稻的种植对蚯蚓的生长发育和体内酶活性无显著影响。本研究为转基因水稻的安全评价提供了一定的依据。     

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events

Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first‐ever occurrence of four back‐to‐back mass mortality events (2009–2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: ?10%; 2010: ?20%; 2011: ?20%; 2012: ?15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black‐band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size‐class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were ‘winners’. In an ordered ‘degradation cascade’, impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step‐wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high‐ to low‐coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread.     

Climate change‐associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long‐term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit‐free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long‐term water availability has increased without apparent climate change‐associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree‐to‐tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade‐intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.     

The effects of climate change and land‐use change on demographic rates and population viability

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land‐use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative.     

Performance of single versus mixed coral species for transplantation to restore degraded reefs

Coral transplantation has become a potential tool for the restoration of coral cover in degraded reef habitats. Yet, very few investigations have attempted to determine whether there is an advantage for at least two species to be used together in coral transplantation. It is hypothesized that corals would perform better in terms of survival and growth when transplanted in mixed‐ than in single‐species plots. Single‐species plots were compared with combinations of two species at several reef sites, using three separate coral species, namely, Porites cylindrica, Pavona frondifera, and Hydnophora rigida. P. cylindrica performed consistently well in terms of survival whether alone or in the presence of another species. In a stressful environment with strong wave action, P. frondifera performed better when mixed with P. cylindrica than when alone. However, this difference was not evident where wave action was weak. The influence of mixing on the growth rates of H. rigida and P. frondifera transplants could not be examined completely because of high mortality because of predation by the starfish Acanthaster planci and the gastropod Drupella sp. Interestingly, the presence of P. cylindrica appeared to minimize the impact of predation on P. frondifera transplants. The setback caused by predation stresses the importance of other factors that influence the outcome of restoration interventions. Future initiatives should take into consideration management measures when selecting sites in relation to wave action and predators, control predator outbreaks, and use coral species, e.g. P. cylindrica that are less susceptible to predation.     

Evaluation of productivity of sexually precocious Nelore heifers

The objectives of the present study were to investigate the influence of yearling weight on the occurrence of early pregnancy and to determine differences between precocious and non-precocious heifers in terms of pre- and postnatal calf mortality, calf weight and height, mature cow weight, and stayability of the cow in the herd. Data from 26 977 females of a Nelore herd that participated in the breeding season between 1986 and 2004 were analyzed. The influence of yearling weight on sexual precocity and differences between precocious and non-precocious heifers in pre- and postnatal calf mortality and stayability were analyzed using the GENMOD procedure of the SAS program. Differences in the growth traits between precocious and non-precocious animals were estimated by contrast analysis. Three groups were analyzed for postnatal mortality: first calving of the heifers, calves born from the third calving and all offspring of the cow. In order to have a standardized calving to conception period for all females (precocious and non-precocious), calves born from the second calving were not included in the analysis. This was necessary because the first calving to conception period (days open) of precocious heifers was longer than for non-precocious due to farm reproductive management. No differences in postnatal mortality rates, from the third calving, were observed between the two groups of heifers studied. Analysis of all offspring of the dams showed a 9% higher probability of death of calves born to precocious heifers compared with calves born to non-precocious heifers. With respect to stayability, precocious heifers presented 33% greater odds to remain in the herd until 5 and 6 years of age and 28% greater odds to remain in the herd until 7 years when compared with non-precocious heifers. Precocious heifers weaned calves (205 days) significantly heavier than non-precocious ones, 1.410 and 0.797 kg considering the weaning weights of all offspring and of the third calving, respectively. With respect to sexual precocity, the results suggest that the probability of heifers to become pregnant at 16 months of age increases with increasing weight. However, heifers weighing more than 240 kg present practically the same pregnancy probability. Nevertheless, exposure of heifers during the early breeding season is recommended for beef cattle herds raised in tropical regions in view of the numerous benefits demonstrated here.