太湖流域生态风险评价

随着城镇的急剧扩张和经济的快速增长,流域生态环境遭到极大冲击和破坏,致使生态系统出现资源退化、环境恶化与灾害风险加剧的趋势,生态环境面临前所未有的挑战.从复合生态系统入手,深入分析流域内各生态系统要素之间的相互作用与影响机制,综合考虑多风险源、多风险受体和生态终点共存情况下的风险大小,从风险源危险度、生境脆弱度及受体损失度三方面构建了流域生态风险评价技术体系,并选取太湖流域为实证区域,对太湖流域2000年、2008年两个时期生态风险的时空演化特征进行评价与分析.结果表明:太湖流域生态风险指数介于0.015-0.253之间,以中等和较低生态风险为主.至2008年,高、较高生态风险所占面积逐渐扩大,已由2000年的5.66％、13.42％增加至6.05％、18.42％,主要集中在流域北部的常州市区、江阴市大部分地区以及无锡市区.     

广西柿种质资源果实性状多样性分析与模糊综合评价

为进一步揭示广西柿种质资源信息,运用多样性分析和模糊综合评价法对不同生态气候区的柿种质资源果实性状进行研究和评价。结果表明:不同柿种质的果实性状存在丰富的多样性。86份柿种质的模糊综合评价指数FCI值在1.849～3.947之间,平均2.835。根据FCI取值范围将所调查的柿种质分成5个等级,FCI值最高的第5级种质数量最少,占所调查种质的3.49%;FCI值最低的第1级种质数量最多,占所调查种质的48.84%。月柿、牛心柿、大方柿、京柿、鸡心柿、小方柿和火柿等柿品种及一些实生单株的模糊综合评价指数较高,它们的果实综合性状表现较优,建议作为优良品种和单株加以开发和利用。部分单个性状比较优良的实生单株虽不适合于直接推广种植,但可作为柿品种改良的资源加以利用。     

宁夏10种观赏灌木叶片解剖结构及其抗旱性综合评价

采用显微制片技术,对宁夏10种主要灌木树种叶片的解剖结构进行了观察,分别测定了叶片厚度、上下角质层厚度、栅栏组织、海绵组织、气孔密度等15个与抗旱性相关的指标,并对15个指标进行主成分分析,用隶属函数法对10种灌木的抗旱性进行了综合评价。结果表明:10种灌木的叶片具有典型的旱生结构,大多数具有表皮毛,且具有明显的角质层结构;上、下表皮细胞及叶肉细胞排列紧密。15个指标在各灌木树种间的差异均极显著,其中叶片厚度、上角质层、栅栏组织厚度、气孔密度和主脉维管束直径为叶片旱性结构的主要因子。通过5个主要因子的综合评价,10种灌木的抗旱性大小顺序依次为:沙冬青>花棒>蒙古莸>金叶莸>互叶醉鱼草>蒙古扁桃>鞑靼忍冬>葱皮忍冬>金花忍冬>台尔曼忍冬。     

授粉处理对红富士苹果果实品质影响的综合评价

以“长富2号”红富士苹果(Malus domestica ‘Red Fuji',Nagafu No. 2)为母本,9个授粉品种为父本,进行人工授粉,研究授粉处理对红富士苹果成熟期果实品质的影响,并构建基于主成分分析的综合评价函数。结果表明:果实的花青苷、单果重、维生素C、固酸比、可溶性糖、可溶性蛋白、可滴定酸等主要经济性状,各授粉处理间差异较大,果形指数、硬度差异较小; 主成分分析提取6个主成分,累计方差贡献率达96.02%,根据主成分得分和方差相对贡献率构建综合评价函数,由综合评价函数确定9个授粉处理果实的综合品质由高到低的排序为雪球、美红、火焰、红星、道格、全家红、绚丽、荷红、粉芽。     

上海市医院预约诊疗服务实施效果分析

?????? 目的 对上海市医院预约诊疗服务的实施效果进行分析,为今后预约诊疗服务工作的推进提供参考依据。方法 通过现场问卷、专家小组访谈、数据采集等方式,了解预约诊疗服务实施效果。结果 预约诊疗服务的信息系统、服务系统、管理系统和评价系统逐渐完善,并在预约诊疗服务的实施过程中发挥出巨大作用。结论 预约就医模式已经逐步被患者所接受,其能有效减少患者就医中的无效等候时间,缓解目前存在“看病难”、医疗资源分配不合理等问题,但无法从根本上解决医疗资源稀缺、供求关系不均等的问题。     

不同发育期诸氏鲻虾虎鱼对钻井液的敏感性比较

目的筛选试验鱼适宜急性毒性试验的发育期。方法将诸氏鲻虾虎鱼早期仔鱼、中期仔鱼、晚期仔鱼、稚鱼、幼鱼及成鱼暴露于一定浓度的钻井液中,比较钻井液对不同发育期诸氏鲻虾虎鱼的急性毒性。结果早期仔鱼48 h LC50为157 mg/L,中期仔鱼48 h LC50大于500 mg/L;中期仔鱼96 h LC50为79 mg/L,晚期仔鱼96h LC50为625 mg/L,稚鱼、幼鱼、成鱼96 h LC50显著大于500 mg/L;卤虫无节幼体96 h LC50为105 mg/L;不同发育期诸氏鲻虾虎鱼对钻井液的敏感性顺序为：早期仔鱼〉中期仔鱼〉晚期仔鱼〉稚、幼、成鱼。结论诸氏鲻虾虎鱼的早期仔鱼适用于海洋污染物急性毒性评价。     

Variation of in situ rumen degradation of crude protein and amino acids and in vitro digestibility of undegraded feed protein in rapeseed meals

In this study, 10 samples of rapeseed meal (RSM) from 10 different oil plants in Germany were examined. In situ rumen degradation of CP was determined by incubation over 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and 72 h in duplicate per time point using three rumen fistulated dry cows. Degradation kinetics were estimated by an exponential model and effective CP degradation was calculated. Degradation was corrected for small particle loss as the difference between washing loss and water-soluble fraction. Amino acid analysis was carried out in the samples and in the residues after 8 and 16 h of incubation in situ and degradation of individual amino acids was calculated for these incubation times. In vitro pepsin–pancreatin digestibility of CP (IPD) was determined in the samples as well as in the 8 and 16 h residues. Effective CP degradation for a rumen outflow rate of 8%/h (ED8) averaged 54.3% with a considerable variation among samples ranging from 44.3% to 62.7%. A multiple regression equation containing acid detergent insoluble N, total glucosinolates and petroleum ether extract as independent variables predicted ED8 with satisfying accuracy (R² = 0.74; RSD = 6.4%). Degradation of amino acids was different from that of CP for most amino acids studied, especially after 8 h of incubation. Compared with CP, degradation of essential amino acids was predominantly lower while degradation of non-essential amino acids was higher in most cases. However, for lysine and methionine no distinct difference with CP degradation was found. Degradation of individual amino acids was predicted from CP degradation with high accuracy using linear regression equations. Average IPD of RSM was 79.8 ± 2.6%. IPD was lower in the incubation residues and decreased with longer incubation time and increasing rumen degradation, respectively.     

An Evaluation Model of Supply Chain Performances Using 5DBSC and LMBP Neural Network Algorithm

A high efficient Supply Chain (SC) would bring great benefits to an enterprise such as integrated resources, reduced logistics costs, improved logistics efficiency and high quality of overall level of services. So it is important to research various methods, performance indicator systems and technology for evaluating, monitoring, predicting and optimizing the performance of a SC. In this paper, the existing performance indicator systems and methods are discussed and evaluated. Various nature-inspired algorithms are reviewed and their applications for SC Performance Evaluation (PE) are discussed. Then, a model is proposed and developed using 5 Dimensional Balanced Scorecard (5DBSC) and LMBP (Levenberg-Marquardt Back Propagation) neural network for SC PE. A program is written using Matlab tool box to implement the model based on the practical values of the 14 indicators of 5DBSC of a given previous period. This model can be used to evaluate, predict and optimize the performance of a SC. The analysis results of a case study of a company show that the proposed model is valid, reliable and effective. The convergence speed is faster than that in the previous work.     

Trends and inequities in colorectal cancer screening participation in Ontario,Canada, 2005–2011

Background: Participation in screening tests for colorectal cancer (CRC) is generally low in Ontario, Canada. In addition, inequities in participation exist including lower participation among low-income individuals, males and individuals living in rural areas. In April 2008, Colon Cancer Check (CCC) program, the province-wide CRC screening program, was launched in Ontario. This study describes the trends and inequities in CRC screening participation three years before and three years after the CCC, and assesses the effect of the program on CRC screening participation, overall and among certain population groups. Methods: We used administrative data to identify cohorts of individuals eligible for CRC screening in fiscal years 2005–2011. We calculated the age-standardized percent of Fecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) participation, large bowel endoscopy participation, and being ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening tests. Results: From 2005 to 2011, FOBT participation increased from 7.6% to 14.8%, large bowel endoscopy participation from 3.4% to 5.7%, and ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening from 27.2% to 41.3%. Before the launch of the CCC program, the quarterly increase in FOBT participation was 0.07% (p = 0.19), increased immediately after the launch (1.8%, p < 0.01), followed by a decline (?0.08%, p = 0.08), returning to its pre-program increase rate. We noted a significant decrease in FOBT participation every summer (?0.44%, p < 0.01). The CCC program had minimal effect on large bowel endoscopy participation. Before the launch of the CCC program, the quarterly increase in ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening was 0.9% (p < 0.01), increased immediately after the launch (2.5%, p = 0.05), followed by a modest decline thereafter (?0.59%, p < 0.02). From 2005 to 2011, recent residents living in low-income neighborhoods were consistently and significantly less likely to have a FOBT and be ‘up-to-date’ with CRC screening than long-term residents living in high-income neighborhoods (2.9–4.5%; 14.7–17.3% respectively). Pre-CCC inequities in CRC participation persisted after the launch of the program. Conclusion: CRC testing was increasing in Ontario from 2005. An immediate increase in CRC testing, FOBT in particular, occurred after the launch of the CCC program, followed by a return to its pre-CCC increase rate thereafter. Future efforts are needed to improve screening participation and address inequities.     

平榛种质资源坚果农艺性状鉴定与评价研究

平榛是我国重要的榛属植物资源,为鉴定、评价和保护平榛种质资源,提高其利用效率,采用主成分分析和聚类分析方法对99份平榛种质资源坚果的主要农艺性状进行了鉴定和综合评价。结果表明:平榛种质资源坚果的24个性状具有丰富的遗传多样性;10个数量性状的主成分分析确定了4类影响因子,反映了育种选择方向及潜力;基于各种质间形态性状的遗传差异,将99份平榛种质划分为5大类群,第Ⅰ类群可作为选育果面光滑品种的育种和候选亲本材料,第Ⅱ类群可作为选育大粒型、适宜机械化加工的育种和候选亲本材料,第Ⅲ类群具有作为市场产品的潜力,第Ⅳ类群可作为选育圆形、果面无条纹的育种和候选亲本材料,第Ⅴ类群可作为选育高丰产性品种的育种和候选亲本材料。上述研究为平榛种质资源的评价、保护和选优工作提供了基础数据。