Conditional and Unconditional Simulation of Healthy Patients' Visual Fields

This paper describes a simulation problem, motivated by the study of glaucoma, a very serious and widespread ocular illness. To ascertain whether a patient suffers from glaucoma, a perimetric test is done, but the evolution of the disease is very slow, and large longitudinal sets of tests taken on the same patient are needed to study its evolution, to analyze the efficiency of existing methods to detect the progression of glaucoma and to develop new ones. Simulation can be a very useful procedure to get appropriate data sets to work with. Our aim in this work is to simulate several VFs in a healthy patient to reflect his evolution in time. We use a spatio‐temporal model to simulate from, taking into account the correlation existing between the observed (or simulated) values in space and time. Two different simulation procedures (unconditional and conditional) are studied, and applied to obtain the simulations we are interested in. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Neutral mutations and repetitive DNA

We have previously shown that computer simulations of processes that generate selectively advantageous changes together with random duplications and deletions give rise to genomes with many different genes embedded in a large amount of dispensable DNA sequence. We now explore the consequences of neutral changes on the evolution of genomes. We follow the consequences of sequence divergences that are neutral when they occur in dispensable sequences or extra copies of genes present in multigene families. We find that when divergence occurs at about the same frequency as duplication/deletion events, genomes carry repetitive sequences in proportion to their size. Inspection of the genomes as they evolved showed that multigene families were generated by relatively recent duplications of single genes and so would be expected to be highly homogeneous.     

A method for the estimation of gene flow parameters from a population structure caused by restricted gene flow and genetic drift

Summary A method has been developed which enables the estimation of the plant gene flow parameters _p (pollen dispersal), _s (seed dispersal) and t (outcrossing rate) from a selection-free continuously structured population in equilibrium. The method uses Wright's F-coefficients and introduces a new F-function which describes the genetic similarity as a function of the spatial distance. The method has been elaborated for wind pollinated plant species but can be modified for insect pollination and for animal species. In practice allozymes will provide for the necessary neutral genetic variation. The more loci used and the more intermediate the gene frequencies, the more reliable the results. For the estimation of _p and t together (when the outcrossing rate is not known) at least two chromosomally unlinked loci are required. The method for estimating _s depends on whether the plant species is annual or perennial. The mechanism of selfing has been analysed by the explanation of the value of t by three components: population density (d), pollen flow (_p) and relative fertilization potential of own pollen (Z). The concepts of neighbourhood size and isolation by distance, developed by Wright, who used a single gene flow parameter , have been extended to the situation which is realistic for seed plants, using all three parameters _p, _s and t. When _p is large with respect to _s, _s largely determines the value of the neighbourhood size, whereas _p is the most dominating factor in isolation by distance. The use of local effective population size and mean gene transport per generation instead of neighbourhood size and neighbourhood area, respectively, is proposed to avoid confusion. Computer simulations have been carried out to check the validity and the reliability of the method. Populations of 200 plants, using two or three loci with intermediate allele frequencies, gave good results in the calculation of _p with known value of t and of _s and N_e. With unknown t, especially with lower values of t, larger populations of at least 1,000 plants are necessary to obtain reasonably accurate results for _p and mean gene transport per generation M.Grassland Species Research Group Publication No. 81     

Studies on evolutionary and selective properties of hypercycles using a Monte Carlo method

Summary The most relevant properties of hypercycles were previously studied mainly from a theoretical point of view. We have developed a Monte Carlo method simulating hypercyclic organization to obtain information about the dynamics of this prebiotic organization. Nucleation, growth, and selective properties have been tested and the results obtained are in good agreement with those of the theoretical predictions. The influence of hypercyclic organization of the error threshold has also been studied. As a consequence of the emergence of a hypercycle, the value of this threshold decreases. The amount of this decrease depends on the population size. Moreover, for some interval of quality factor values, either the hypercycle organization or an error catastrophe can be produced, depending on the initial conditions. The influence of these phenomena on both the dynamic behavior and evolutionary advantages of the hypercycle, as well as their decisive roles on genome size, are discussed.Presented at the FEBS Symposium on Genome Organization and Evolution, held in Crete, Greece, September 1–5, 1986     

Modeling long-term crop response to fertilizer and soil nitrogen

A simple nitrogen balance model to calculate long-term changes in soil organic nitrogen, nitrogen uptake by the crop and recovery of applied nitrogen, is presented. It functions with time intervals of one year or one growing season. In the model a labile and a stable pool of soil organic nitrogen are distinguished. Transfer coefficients for the various inputs of nitrogen are established that specify the fractions taken up by the crop, lost from the system, and incorporated in soil organic nitrogen. It is shown how input data, model parameters and initial pool sizes can be derived and how the model can be used for calculating long-term changes in total soil organic nitrogen and uptake by the crop. For nitrogen applied annually as fertilizer or organic material the time course of nitrogen uptake and recovery of applied nitrogen is calculated. To test the sensitivity of the model, calculations have been performed for different environmental conditions with higher or lower risks for losses. The model has also been applied to establish fertilizer recommendations for a certain target nitrogen uptake by the crop. Finally, for agricultural systems where periods of cropping alternate with peroids of green fallow the time course of nitrogen uptake by the crop is calculated.     

A simulation of the process of sedimentation of suspended solids in the Yoshii River estuary

A vertical plane 2D model has been applied to the Yoshii River estuary, Japan, as a means of simulating the process of sedimentation. The current velocity and isohaline distributions were well reproduced in the estuary and the model simulated the concentration distribution of suspended solids for 8 particle size classes by using a transport equation based only on physical processes. The changes of the particle size distribution in surface water were well reproduced by the model. The vertical velocity component plays an important role in the behaviour of suspended solids.     

Conformational and helicoidal analysis of the molecular dynamics of proteins: "curves," dials and windows for a 50 psec dynamic trajectory of BPTI

A new procedure for the graphic analysis of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on proteins is introduced, in which comprehensive visualization of results and pattern recognition is greatly facilitated. The method involves determining the conformational and helicoidal parameters for each structure entering the analysis via the method "Curves," developed for proteins by Sklenar, Etchebest, and Lavery (Proteins: Structure, Function Genet. 6:46-60, 1989) followed by a novel computer graphic display of the results. The graphic display is organized systematically using conformation wheels ("dials") for each torsional parameter and "windows" on the range values assumed by the linear and angular helicoidal parameters, and is present in a form isomorphous with the primary structure per se. The complete time evolution of dynamic structure can then be depicted in a set of four composite figures. Dynamic aspects of secondary and tertiary structure are also provided. The procedure is illustrated with an analysis of a 50 psec in vacuo simulation on the 58 residue protein, bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI), in the vicinity of the local minimum on the energy surface corresponding to a high resolution crystal structure. The time evolution of 272 conformational and 788 helicoidal parameters for BPTI is analyzed. A number of interesting features can be discerned in the analysis, including the dynamic range of conformational and helicoidal motions, the dynamic extent of 2 degrees structure motifs, and the calculated fluctuations in the helix axis. This approach is expected to be useful for a critical analysis of the effects of various assumptions about force field parameters, truncation of potentials, solvation, and electrostatic effects, and can thus contribute to the development of more reliable simulation protocols for proteins. Extensions of the analysis to present differential changes in conformational and helicoidal parameters is expected to be valuable in MD studies of protein complexes with substrates, inhibitors, and effectors and in determining the nature of structural changes in protein-protein interactions.     

Total root length as estimated from small sub-samples

A method is proposed for estimating the total length of a root system from sub-samples. This method is based on the measurement of the length and diameter of small pieces of roots, and on the measurements of the bulk density of root sub-samples. It is assumed that roots are cylinders with a given bulk density. The length and diameter of small root pieces are measured by image analysis. A weighted quadratic mean (W.Q.M.) root diameter is then calculated and used in estimating the root length. This W.Q.M. diameter is defined as the real mean diameter of an equivalent single root with the same length and volume as the tested root system. The accuracy of prediction is demonstrated for one theoretical root system. The standard deviation of estimation can be calculated using sampling simulations.     

Confidence Intervals on Ratios of Variance Components for the Unbalanced Two Factor Nested Model

The model considered in this article is the two-factor nested unbalanced variance component model: for p = 1, 2, …, P; q = 1, 2, …, Q_p; and r = 1, 2, …, R_pq. The random variables Y_pqr are observable. The constant μ is an unknown parameter, and A_p, B_pq and C_pqr are (unobservable) normal and independently distributed random variables with zero means and finite variances σ²_A, σ²_B, and σ²_C, respectively. Approximate confidence intervals on ?_A and ?_B using unweighted means are derived, where The performance of these approximate confidence intervals are evaluated using computer simulation. The simulated results indicate that these proposed confidence intervals perform satisfactorily and can be used in applied problems.     

Effect of Zeitgeber Intensity Reduction on a Simulated Dual-Oscillator Human Circadian System: Classical and Dynamic Analysis

The two-oscillator model of human circadian rhythmicity was analyzed when a zeitgeber relative intensity of 1, 0.5, or 0.1 was introduced into the equations. Fourier analysis was compared with dynamic analysis such as attractor reconstruction or Liapunov exponent calculation. After a 50 or 90% reduction in zeitgeber intensity, the dynamics of the system became equivalent and differed significantly from those of a system with maximal zeitgeber intensity. When 10% aleatory noise was added to the data, the analysis was still applicable, and the results obtained were essentially the same as in the absence of noise. Dynamic analysis could thus provide a distinct classification for periodic data, based on the type of analysis.