Consumer pressure, seed versus safe-site limitation, and plant population dynamics

Plants often suffer reductions in fecundity due to insect herbivory. Whether this loss of seeds has population-level consequences is much debated and often unknown. For many plants, particularly those with long-lived seedbanks, it is frequently asserted that herbivores have minimal impacts on plant abundance because safe-site availability rather than absolute seed number determines the magnitude of future plant recruitment and hence population abundance. However, empirical tests of this assertion are generally lacking and the interplay between herbivory, spatio-temporal variability in seed- or safe-site-limited recruitment, and seedbank dynamics is likely to be complex. Here we use a stochastic simulation model to explore how changes in the spatial and temporal frequency of seed-limited recruitment, the strength of density-dependent seedling survival, and longevity of seeds in the soil influence the population response to herbivory. Model output reveals several surprising results. First, given a seedbank, herbivores can have substantial effects on mean population abundance even if recruitment is primarily safe-site-limited in either time or space. Second, increasing seedbank longevity increases the population effects of herbivory, because annual reductions in seed input due to herbivory are accumulated in the seedbank. Third, population impacts of herbivory are robust even in the face of moderately strong density-dependent seedling mortality. These results imply that the conditions under which herbivores influence plant population dynamics may be more widespread than heretofore expected. Experiments are now needed to test these predictions. Received: 3 November 1999 / Accepted: 15 February 2000     

Farms,pastures and woodlands: the fine‐scale distribution of Palearctic Culicoides spp. biting midges along an agro‐ecological gradient

The spatial epidemiology of Bluetongue virus (BTV) at the landscape level relates to the fine‐scale distribution and dispersal capacities of its vectors, midges belonging to the genus Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Although many previous researches have carried out Culicoides sampling on farms, little is known of the fine‐scale distribution of Culicoides in the landscape immediately surrounding farms. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of Culicoides populations at increasing distances from typical dairy farms in north‐west Europe, through the use of eight Onderstepoort‐type black‐light traps positioned along linear transects departing from farms, going through pastures and entering woodlands. A total of 16 902 Culicoides were collected in autumn 2008 and spring 2009. The majority were females, of which more than 97% were recognized as potential vectors. In pastures, we found decreasing numbers of female Culicoides as a function of the distance to the farm. This pattern was modelled by leptokurtic models, with parameters depending on season and species. By contrast, the low number of male Culicoides caught were homogeneously distributed along the transects. When transects entered woodlands, we found a higher abundance of Culicoides than expected considering the distance of the sampling sites to the farm, although this varied according to species.     

Algal Population Growth Model Integrated with Toxicokinetics for Ecological Risk Assessment under Time-Varying Pesticide Exposure

An algal population growth model integrated with toxicokinetics was developed for assessing the effect of pesticides on population dynamics. This model is a simple one-compartment, first-order kinetic model in which toxicity (growth inhibition and mortality) depends on the intracellular effective concentration of a pesticide at a target site. The model's parameters were derived using an experimental study that investigated the effects of pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl, pentoxazone, and quinoclamine on the growth, mortality, and subsequent population recovery of the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata. Modeled and measured trajectories of algal population dynamics agreed well. The effect on population recovery was underestimated by the model that ignored the toxicokinetics. The four tested herbicides had a variety of toxicity characteristics and physicochemical properties, indicating the wide range of the model's applicability. Moreover, the developed model and the obtained model's parameters were extrapolated to predict long-term algal population dynamics under time-varying herbicide exposure. The calculated integral biomass lost compared with the control was considered a quantitative index of the population-level ecological risk. The model's prediction showed that the same exposure level (peak concentration is equivalent to EC50) indicated much different population-level effect depending on the herbicide.     

Modelling HIV immune response and validation with clinical data

A system of ordinary differential equations is formulated to describe the pathogenesis of HIV infection, wherein certain features that have been shown to be important by recent experimental research are incorporated in the model. These include the role of CD4+memory cells that serve as a major reservoir of latently infected cells, a critical role for T-helper cells in the generation of CD8 memory cells capable of efficient recall response, and stimulation by antigens other than HIV. A stability analysis illustrates the capability of this model in admitting multiple locally asymptotically stable (locally a.s.) off-treatment equilibria. We show that this more biologically detailed model can exhibit the phenomenon of transient viremia experienced by some patients on therapy with viral load levels suppressed below the detection limit. We also show that the loss of CD4+T-cell help in the generation of CD8+memory cells leads to larger peak values for the viral load during transient viremia. Censored clinical data is used to obtain parameter estimates. We demonstrate that using a reduced set of 16 free parameters, obtained by fixing some parameters at their population averages, the model provides reasonable fits to the patient data and, moreover, that it exhibits good predictive capability. We further show that parameter values obtained for most clinical patients do not admit multiple locally a.s off-treatment equilibria. This suggests that treatment to move from a high viral load equilibrium state to an equilibrium state with a lower (or zero) viral load is not possible for these patients.     

Correction of a bootstrap approach to testing for evolution along lines of least resistance

Testing for an association between the leading vectors of multivariate trait (co)variation within populations (the ‘line of least resistance’) and among populations is an important tool for exploring variational bias in evolution. In a recent study of stickleback fish populations, a bootstrap‐based test was introduced that takes into account estimation error in both vectors and hence improves the previously available bootstrap method. Because this test was implemented incorrectly, however, I here describe the correct test protocol and provide a reanalysis of the original data set. The application of this new test protocol should improve future investigations of evolution along lines of least resistance and other vector comparisons.     

Long‐term population dynamics of a coral reef gastropod and responses to disturbance

The age‐specific density of the red‐lipped stromb Strombus luhuanus (Mollusca: Gastropoda) was monitored over 13 years (1981–1993) at four locations on the intertidal reef flat at Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef. Densities were highly variable, but there were persistent, location‐specific differences in population density, age structure and adult body size, the latter indicating that the populations were not extensively linked by adult movement. There was relatively high recruitment at most locations in 1984, 1989 and 1993, each occurring approximately 2 years after El Niño/Southern Oscillation events, although recruit density during these years varied in both space and time. The studied strombs experienced three disturbance events: (i) experimental harvesting at two locations (1984–1985); (ii) siltation from a harbour dredging operation (1987–1988); and (iii) a severe cyclone (1992). Resilience to harvesting at a local scale (0.5–2 ha) was high: density had recovered within a year, due to immigration of adults and older juveniles. Strombus luhuanus responded much more strongly to broad‐scale changes to its environment than to localized harvesting. After dredging, there was a progressive density decline coupled with low recruitment at two locations, and a later decline at a third location, followed by a recruitment‐driven rebound after the cyclone. Generalized environmental effects of siltation and the cyclone were also reflected in substantial changes in algal cover. Long‐term variations in environmental conditions probably cause high temporal variation over large spatial scales through effects on the survival of larvae or recruits. Localized short‐term field monitoring of such species would give a misleading picture of key factors affecting population dynamics.     

Diversity and distribution of reptiles in Romania

The reptile fauna of Romania comprises 23 species, out of which 12 species reach here the limit of their geographic range. We compiled and updated a national database of the reptile species occurrences from a variety of sources including our own field surveys, personal communication from specialists, museum collections and the scientific literature. The occurrence records were georeferenced and stored in a geodatabase for additional analysis of their spatial patterns. The spatial analysis revealed a biased sampling effort concentrated in various protected areas, and deficient in the vast agricultural areas of the southern part of Romania. The patterns of species richness showed a higher number of species in the warmer and drier regions, and a relatively low number of species in the rest of the country. Our database provides a starting point for further analyses, and represents a reliable tool for drafting conservation plans.     

Mate detection success of maleClethrionomys rufocanus in relation to the spatial distribution of sexually receptive females

Summary Mate detection success of male grey-sided voles,Clethrionomys rufocanus, in relation to the spatial distribution of sexually receptive females was studied in an experimental island population. The spatiotemporal distribution of receptive females was controlled by containing females in small, mobile wire-mesh cages, whereas the response by free-ranging males was monitored by means of radiotelemetry. Males were on average more successful in finding oestrous females when females were spatially clumped than when females were spatially overdispersed. In addition, the variance (CV) in male mate detecting success was highest when females had an overdispersed spatial distribution. These results are consistent with predictions from a theoretical model (Ims, 1988b) analysing the effect of mate distribution on male mating success, and with empirical results on prey detection success of predators searching for prey.