A spatial panel statistical analysis on cultivated land conversion and chinese economic growth

The conflict between cultivated land protection and economic development has become increasingly acute in recent years. Despite, intensive researches made on this conflict, little attention has been paid to the spatial correlation of variables. In view of this, the paper introduces the spatial panel regression model to estimate, and test whether the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion conforms to Kuznets curve. Research results show that the area of converted cultivated land in China exhibits strong spatial auto-correlation; the spatial panel model with time effect and fixed effect is more stable and significant than conventional panel mode, and that the relationship between economic growth and cultivated land conversion agrees with the inverted U-shape of Kuznets curve, with inflection point occurring when average per capita GDP reaches ¥31330.93 (calculated at comparable price of 1999). On the basis of analysis, it is suggested that the government, with a view to developing economy alongside protecting cultivated land, should attach more importance to land use and planning in the future, pay more attention to the spatial correlation of cultivated land planning in adjacent areas and make greater efforts to increase the input–output ratio of land.     

Estimating Cloud Cover

The purpose of this activity was to help students understand the percentage of cloud cover and make more accurate cloud cover observations. Students estimated the percentage of cloud cover represented by simulated clouds and assigned a cloud cover classification to those simulations.     

Evidence for deviations from uniform changes in a Portuguese watershed illustrated by CORINE maps: An Intensity Analysis approach

We apply a method to evaluate the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform land change in a coastal area, in the context of Intensity Analysis. The errors in the CORINE maps at 1990 and 2006 can influence the apparent change, but the errors are unknown because error assessment of the 1990 map has never been released, while the error of the 2006 map has been checked for only some countries. The 1990 and the 2006 maps of a coastal watershed in Portugal served as the data to compute the intensities of changes among eight categories. We evaluate the sizes and types of errors that could explain deviations from uniform intensities. Errors in 2.0% of the 2006 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform gains. Errors in 1.5% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform losses. Errors in less than 0.7% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform transitions to each gaining category. We analyse the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform intensities in light of historical processes of change. Historical processes can explain some transitions that the data show, while the hypothesised errors in the data are the explanation for other transitions that are not consistent with known processes. Inconsistent transitions are an indication of the misclassification errors that could propagate to other land cover change applications, as in the assessment of hydrological processes.     

Changes in bird communities in Swaziland savannas between 1998 and 2008 owing to shrub encroachment

Aim This study investigates changes in bird communities between 1998 and 2008 in four savanna sites in Swaziland and the extent to which shrub encroachment is responsible for these changes. Location Swaziland, southern Africa. Methods Generalized estimated equations were used to estimate changes in bird species occurrence between 1998 and 2008. Remote sensing of aerial photographs/satellite images was used to assess vegetation changes during the same period. We assessed the role of shrub encroachment for bird communities by testing the relationship between change in species occurrence and species habitat using a general linear model. We also estimated species richness, colonization and extinction and used general linear models to test the effects of vegetation changes on these parameters. Results More than half of the bird species showed a significant change in occurrence between 1998 and 2008: 32 species increased and 29 decreased. Change in species occurrence was significantly explained by species habitat. Species significantly increasing were mainly associated with wooded savanna, whereas species significantly decreasing were mainly associated with open savanna. Species richness decreased significantly, and this decrease was significantly explained by shrub cover increase at the plot scale (from 24% to 44% on average). Extinction at the plot scale was significantly influenced by the loss of grass cover, while colonization at the plot scale was influenced by tree cover increase. Main conclusions This study represents the first evidence of temporal changes in bird communities owing to shrub encroachment in southern Africa. Despite its short time frame (10 years), this study shows dramatic changes in both vegetation structure and bird community composition. This confirms the general concern for southern African bird species associated with open savanna if current trends continue.     

Depth‐dependent soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands across the Chengdu Plain of China from the 1980s to the 2010s

Agricultural soils have tremendous potential to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) and mitigate global climate change. However, agricultural land use has a profound impact on SOC dynamics, and few studies have explored how agricultural land use combined with soil conditions affect SOC changes throughout the soil profile. Based on a paired soil resampling campaign in the 1980s and 2010s, this study investigated the SOC changes of the soil profile caused by agricultural land use and the correlations with parent material and topography across the Chengdu Plain of China. The results showed that the SOC content increased by 3.78 g C/kg in the topsoil (0–20 cm), but decreased in the 20–40 cm and 40–60 cm soil layers by 0.90 and 1.26 g C/kg respectively. SOC increases in topsoil were observed for all types of agricultural land. Afforestation on former agricultural land also caused SOC decreases in the 20–60 cm soil layers, while SOC decreases only occurred in the 40–60 cm soil layer for agricultural land using a traditional crop rotation (i.e. traditional rice–wheat/rapeseed rotation) and with rice–vegetable rotations converted from the traditional rotations. For each agricultural land use, SOC decreases in deep soils only occurred in high relief areas and in soils formed from Q4 (Quaternary Holocene) grey‐brown alluvium and Q4 grey alluvium that had a relatively low soil bulk density and clay content. The results indicated that SOC change caused by agricultural land use was depth dependent and that the effects of agricultural land use on soil profile SOC dynamics varied with soil characteristics and topography. Subsoil SOC decreases were more likely to occur in high relief areas and in soils with low soil bulk density and low clay content.     

Distinct controls over the temporal dynamics of soil carbon fractions after land use change

Soil organic carbon (SOC), the largest terrestrial carbon pool, plays a significant role in soil‐related ecosystem services such as climate regulation, soil fertility and agricultural production. However, its fate under land use change is difficult to predict. A major issue is that SOC comprised of numerous organic compounds with potentially distinct and poorly understood turnover properties. Here we use spatiotemporal measurements of the particulate (POC), mineral‐associated (MOC) and charred SOC (COC) fractions from 176 trials involving changes in land use to assess their underlying controls. We find that the initial pool sizes of each of the three fractions consistently and dominantly control their temporal dynamics after changes in land use (i.e. the baseline effects). The effects of climate, soil physicochemical properties and plant residues, however, are fraction‐ and time‐dependent. Climate and soil properties show similar importance for controlling the dynamics of MOC and COC, while plant residue inputs (in term of their quantity and quality) are much less important. For POC, plant residues and management practices (e.g. the frequency of pasture in crop‐pasture rotation systems) are substantially more important, overriding the influence of climate. These results demonstrate the pivotal role of measuring SOC composition and considering fraction‐specific stabilization and destabilization processes for effective SOC management and reliable SOC predictions.     

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.     

京津冀地区新型城镇化对土地生态效率影响的实证分析

近年来, 城市化进程的不断推进对城市土地利用及生态环境产生了极大影响。选取城镇化发展最为迅速与典型的京津冀地区作为研究区域, 采用超效率DEA模型及Malmquist效率指数, 从经济学角度分析2006-2015年土地生态效率的时空演变, 随后, 基于人口、富裕和技术(STRIPAT)模型, 构建新型城镇化发展水平的综合指标评价体系, 分析新型城镇化对土地生态效率的影响。研究结果表明: 京津冀地区城镇化发展水平与土地生态效率之间存在显著的正相关关系, 即城镇化水平的不断提升对土地生态效率的提高具有积极作用, 各城市土地生态效率在新型城镇化发展背景下存在明显的空间差异, 此外, 土地利用与管理技术水平的提高、环境政策的改变等均会对土地生态效率的提升产生积极影响。这项研究旨在为提高城市土地管理水平, 推动城市可持续发展提供决策支持。     

Canopy thinning,not agricultural history,determines early responses of wild bees to longleaf pine savanna restoration

Longleaf pine savannas are highly threatened, fire‐maintained ecosystems unique to the southeastern United States. Fire suppression and conversion to agriculture have strongly affected this ecosystem, altering overstory canopies, understory plant communities, and animal populations. Tree thinning to reinstate open canopies can benefit understory plant diversity, but effects on animal communities are less well understood. Moreover, agricultural land‐use legacies can have long‐lasting impacts on plant communities, but their effects on animal communities either alone or through interactions with restoration are unclear. Resolving these impacts is important due to the conservation potential of fire‐suppressed and post‐agricultural longleaf savannas. We evaluated how historical agricultural land use and canopy thinning affect the diversity and abundance of wild bees in longleaf pine savannas. We employed a replicated, large‐scale factorial block experiment in South Carolina, where canopy thinning was applied to longleaf pine savannas that were either post‐agricultural or remnant (no agricultural history). Bees were sampled using elevated bee bowls. In the second growing season after restoration, thinned plots supported a greater bee abundance and bee community richness. Additionally, restored plots had altered wild bee community composition when compared to unthinned plots, indicating that reduction of canopy cover by the thinning treatment best predicted wild bee diversity and composition. Conversely, we found little evidence for differences between sites with or without historical agricultural land use. Some abundant Lasioglossum species were the most sensitive to habitat changes. Our results highlight how restoration practices that reduce canopy cover in fire‐suppressed savannas can have rapid benefits for wild bee communities.