Ecological thresholds: Concept,Methods and research outlooks

The concept of ecological thresholds was raised in the 1970s. However, it was subsequently given different definitions and interpretations depending on research fields or disciplines. For most scientists, ecological thresholds refer to the points or zones that link abrupt changes between alternative stable states of an ecosystem. The measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds have great theoretical and practical significance in ecological research for clarifying the structure and function of ecosystems, for planning sustainable development modes, and for delimiting ecological red lines in managing the ecosystems of a region. By reviewing the existing concepts and classifications of ecological thresholds, we propose a new concept and definition at two different levels: the ecological threshold points, i.e. the turning points of quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which can be considered as ecological red lines; the ecological threshold zones, i.e. the regime shifts of the quantitative changes among different stable states, which can be considered as the yellow and/or orange warning boundaries of the gradual ecological changes. The yellow thresholds mean that an ecosystem can return to a stable state by its self-adjustment, the orange thresholds indicate that the ecosystem will stay in the equilibrium state after interference factors being removed, whereas the red thresholds, as the critical threshold points, indicate that the ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation or even collapse beyond those points. We also summarizes two types of popular Methods in determining ecological thresholds: statistical analysis and modeling based on data of field observations. The applications of ecological thresholds in ecosystem service, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management research are also reviewed. Future research on ecological thresholds should focus on the following aspects: (1) methodological development for measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds; (2) emphasizing the scaling effect of ecological thresholds and establishment of national-scale observation system and network; and (3) implementation of ecological thresholds as early warning tools in ecosystem management and delimiting ecological red lines.     

Uncertainty in the detection of disturbance spatial patterns in temperate forests

The use of individual-based models in the study of the spatial patterns of disturbances has opened new horizons in forest ecosystem research. However, no studies so far have addressed (i) the uncertainty in geostatistical modelling of the spatial relationships in dendrochronological data, (ii) the number of increment cores necessary to study disturbance spatial patterns, and (iii) the choice of an appropriate geostatistical model in relation to disturbance regime. In addressing these issues, we hope to contribute to advances in research methodology as well as to improve interpretations and generalizations from case studies.We used data from the beech-dominated Žofínský Prales forest reserve (Czech Republic), where we cored 3020 trees on 74 ha. Block bootstrap and geostatistics were applied to the data, which covered five decades with highly different disturbance histories. This allowed us to assess the general behavior of various mathematical models. Uncertainty in the spatial patterns and stability of the models was measured as the length of the 95% confidence interval (CI) of model parameters.According to Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the spherical model fitted best at the range of ca. 20 m, while the exponential model was best at the range of ca. 60 m. However, the best fitting models were not always the most stable. The stability of models grew significantly with sample size. At <500 cores the spherical model was the most stable, while the Gaussian model was very unstable at <300 cores. The pure nugget model produced the most precise nugget estimate. The choice of model should thus be based on the expected spatial relations of the forest ecosystem under study. Sill was the most stable parameter, with an error of ±6–20% for ≥1110 core series. By contrast, practical range was the most sensitive, with an error of at least ±59%. The estimation of the spatial pattern of severe disturbances was more precise than that of fine-scale disturbances.The results suggest that with a sample size of 1000–1400 cores and a properly chosen model, one reaches a certain precision in estimation that does not increase significantly with growing sample size. It appears that in temperate old-growth forests controlled by fine-scale disturbances, it is necessary to have at least 500 cores to estimate sill, nugget and relative nugget, while to estimate practical range at least 1000 cores are needed. When choosing the best model, the stability of the model should be considered together with the value of AIC. Our results indicate the general limits of disturbance spatial pattern studies using dendrochronological and geostatistical methods, which can be only partially overcome by sample size or sampling design.     

Water availability,fundamental niches and realized niches: A case study from the Cape flora

The ability of plants to survive drought or waterlogging constitutes an important niche parameter, which might be particularly significant in explaining species coexistence in the species‐rich and seasonally dry Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. However, the degree of physiological adaptation and specialization to these eco‐hydrological parameters (the fundamental niche) cannot be readily inferred from correlative studies based on species distributions and spatial variation in environmental parameters (the realized niche). We used an ex situ greenhouse experiment to compare the fundamental hydrological niches (different mean annual precipitation, rainfall seasonality and soil drainage) of six eco‐hydrologically divergent African Restionaceae species. Juvenile plants were subjected to six different watering treatments, ranging from no watering to waterlogging, to determine drought and waterlogging susceptibility and optimal growth conditions. We used the rate of biomass accumulation and survival rate as response measures. We found that species from dry and mesic (but well‐drained) habitats had optimal or near‐optimal growth at benign conditions (under which most restio species grow well). All species performed worse when droughted and died when not watered. Species from dry habitats tended to perform better (assessed in growth) than species from wet habitats under droughting. Species from wet habitats performed best when waterlogged, whereas species from dry habitats performed very poorly when waterlogged – thus showing that realized and fundamental niches covaried at the wet end of the hydrological gradient. We conclude that eco‐hydrological parameters are part of the fundamental niche, and fundamental and realized species niches are approximately correlated along them. The distribution of wet habitat species appears not to reflect their drought tolerance, suggesting that it may not be predicted by bioclimatic variables, but rather by soil drainage characteristics.     

Warming and oligotrophication cause shifts in freshwater phytoplankton communities

While there is a lot of data on interactive effects of eutrophication and warming, to date, we lack data to generate reliable predictions concerning possible effects of nutrient decrease and temperature increase on community composition and functional responses. In recent years, a wide‐ranging trend of nutrient decrease (re‐oligotrophication) was reported for freshwater systems. Small lakes and ponds, in particular, show rapid responses to anthropogenic pressures and became model systems to investigate single as well as synergistic effects of warming and fertilization in situ and in experiments. Therefore, we set up an experiment to investigate the single as well as the interactive effects of nutrient reduction and gradual temperature increase on a natural freshwater phytoplankton community, using an experimental indoor mesocosm setup. Biomass production initially increased with warming but decreased with nutrient depletion. If nutrient supply was constant, biomass increased further, especially under warming conditions. Under low nutrient supply, we found a sharp transition from initially positive effects of warming to negative effects when resources became scarce. Warming reduced phytoplankton richness and evenness, whereas nutrient reduction at ambient temperature had positive effects on diversity. Our results indicate that temperature effects on freshwater systems will be altered by nutrient availability. These interactive effects of energy increase and resource decrease have major impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function and thus need to be considered in environmental management plans.     

兴安落叶松种群的稳定性与火干扰关系的研究

从种群生态学和干扰生态学的角度出发,采用火史重建的方法,研究了大兴安岭北部兴安落叶松种群的稳定性与火干扰的关系。结果表明：研究区内历史上火干扰频繁,平均间隔期为２８．９年,火烧强度较低。兴安落叶松依靠较强的耐火力、火力恢复力及自我恢复力具一定的稳定性。种群耐火力与长期火状况密切相关,表现为：低频类〈中频类〈高频类,高强类〈中强类〈低强类。火后恢复力与自我恢复力和最近一次火烧强度及距今时间密切相关：     

The role of landscape history and persistent biogeographical patterns in shaping the responses of Mediterranean land snail communities to recent fire disturbances

Aims To assess the impact of various fire regimes over the past 30 years on land snail communities and to analyse the role of recent landscape history and the influence of biogeography in shaping the response patterns of gastropod communities following disturbances by fire. Location South-eastern France (Provence) and Mediterranean region. Methods Stratified sampling within 12 sites was undertaken with regard to fire regime (i.e. number of fires, fire intervals and age of the last fire) occurring over the past 30 years. The study was complemented by a historical analysis using aerial photographs, old maps of vegetation cover and an analysis of the biogeographical composition of malacofaunas. Data were investigated using Correspondence Analysis and Sørensen coefficient of similarity. Results When a disturbance regime (land use or fire disturbances) has been maintained over decades or centuries, land snail communities appear highly modified and tend to be composed of only Mediterranean and xerophilous species. However, low fire regimes, since the 1970s, do not seem to greatly affect the composition of gastropod communities. Indeed, shade-loving, mesophilous and European range species persist even after successive fires within some sites. In addition, the malacofaunas have a higher component of European range species with increasing distance from the Mediterranean sea. Main conclusions Analysis of the response patterns of gastropod communities to fire shows a response to numerous different factors. The composition of current land snail communities is not only the result of (more or less) recent patterns of fire regimes but also of anthropogenic disturbances, of landscape changes over the last centuries and of subsequent structure of the pre-fire habitat, as well as of the influence of a biogeographical gradient. However, the response patterns observed and the persistence of pre-fire communities imply the presence of cryptic refuges located within burned areas.     

Fish community changes after minimum flow increase: testing quantitative predictions in the Rhône River at Pierre-Bénite, France

1. Many aspects of the flow regime influence the structure of stream communities, among which the minimum discharge left in rivers has received particular attention. However, instream habitat models predicting the ecological impacts of discharge management often lack biological validation and spatial generality, particularly for large rivers with many fish species. 2. The minimum flow at Pierre‐Bénite, a reach of the Rhône river bypassed by artificial channels, was increased from 10 to 100 m³ s^?1 in August 2000 (natural mean discharge 1030 m³ s^?1), resulting in a fivefold increase in average velocity at minimum flow. Fish were electrofished in several habitat units on 12 surveys between 1995 and 2004. 3. Principal components analysis revealed a significant change in the relative abundance of fish species. The relative abundance of species preferring fast‐flowing and/or deep microhabitats increased from two‐ to fourfold after minimum flow increase. A change in community structure confirmed independent quantitative predictions of an instream habitat model. This change was significantly linked to minimum flow increase, but not to any other environmental variables describing high flows or temperature at key periods of fish life cycle. The rapidity of the fish response compared with the lifespan of individual species can be explained by a differential response of specific size classes. 4. The fish community at Pierre‐Bénite is in a transitional stage and only continued monitoring will indicate if the observed shift in community structure is perennial. We expect that our case study will be compared with other predictive tests of the impacts of flow restoration in large rivers, in the Rhône catchment and elsewhere.     

Effects of decadal climate change on zooplankton over the last 50 years in the western subarctic North Pacific

Decadal‐ to multi‐decadal variations have been reported in many regional ecosystems in the North Pacific, resulting in an increasing demand to elucidate the link between long‐term climatic forcing and marine ecosystems. We detected phenological and quantitative changes in the copepod community in response to the decadal climatic variation in the western subarctic North Pacific by analyzing the extensive zooplankton collection taken since the 1950s, the Odate Collection. Copepod species were classified into five seasonal groups depending on the timing of the annual peak in abundance. The abundance of the spring community gradually increased for the period 1960–2002. The spring–summer community also showed an increasing trend in May, but a decadal oscillation pattern of quasi‐30‐year cycles in July. Phenological changes coincided with the climate regime shift in the mid‐1970s, indicated by the Pacific decadal oscillation index (PDO). After the regime shift, the timing of the peak abundance was delayed one month, from March–April to April–May, in the spring community, whereas it peaked earlier, from June–July to May–June, in the spring–summer community, resulting in an overlap of the high productivity period for the two communities in May. Wintertime cooling, followed by rapid summertime warming, was considered to be responsible for delayed initiation and early termination of the productive season after the mid‐1970s. Another phenological shift, quite different from the previous decade, was observed in the mid‐1990s, when warm winters followed by cool summers lengthened the productive season. The results suggest that climatic forcing with different decadal cycles may operate independently during winter–spring and spring–summer to create seasonal and interannual variations in hydrographic conditions; thus, combinations of these seasonal processes may determine the annual biological productivity.